What's Happening?
Russia is undergoing a significant transformation in its national spatial policy, moving away from a strategy focused on urban agglomerations as drivers of economic growth. This shift is a direct response to the prolonged war against Ukraine, international
sanctions, and disrupted global connections, which have made maintaining economic activity and infrastructure across its vast territory increasingly challenging. The 2019 strategy centered on 41 large urban areas, aiming to concentrate investment and population for national prosperity. However, the 2024 Spatial Development Strategy now identifies 2,160 'support settlements' spread across the country. These settlements are tasked with retaining population, providing essential services, and maintaining territorial continuity, reflecting a change in focus from generating growth to ensuring basic functionality and state presence in peripheral regions. This new approach acknowledges the weakening conditions that previously supported agglomeration-led development, such as expanding trade, mobile capital, and confidence in metropolitan growth.
Why It's Important?
This policy shift in Russia has profound implications for its internal governance and potentially for its long-term stability. By prioritizing 'support settlements' over large urban centers, Russia is attempting to mitigate the effects of demographic decline and regional inequalities exacerbated by the ongoing conflict and sanctions. This strategy aims to preserve access to schools, healthcare, and infrastructure in areas where economic growth is weak, thereby maintaining state presence and control across its extensive landmass. While this could offer tangible benefits to residents in smaller towns by keeping essential services operational, it also risks setting a lower bar for success, where 'not getting worse' becomes an acceptable outcome rather than fostering genuine economic development and social mobility. The reorientation of trade and logistics corridors towards Asian markets, coupled with the designation of certain regions as 'geostrategic territories,' indicates a fundamental re-evaluation of Russia's geopolitical and economic priorities, moving away from European integration.
What's Next?
The implementation of Russia's 2024 Spatial Development Strategy will likely involve significant resource allocation to the identified 2,160 'support settlements.' The government will need to develop mechanisms to ensure these settlements can effectively retain population and provide essential services, especially given that many already face persistently low living standards. This shift suggests a long-term commitment to territorial stability and state control, potentially at the expense of dynamic economic growth in major urban centers. Future developments will reveal how effectively Russia can balance the need for basic functionality in peripheral areas with the broader economic challenges posed by sanctions and international isolation. The upcoming parliamentary election in September 2026, while expected to be dominated by the ruling United Russia party, will occur within this evolving policy landscape, further solidifying the state's direction.
Beyond the Headlines
The change in Russia's spatial policy reflects a deeper ideological and practical reorientation driven by geopolitical realities. The concept of 'support settlements,' derived from military and policing contexts, underscores a strategic imperative to secure presence and control across a wide area, rather than solely pursuing economic efficiency. This move highlights a broader trend where national policies are increasingly shaped by security concerns and self-reliance in the face of external pressures. Ethically, while providing basic services to remote areas is beneficial, the policy's potential to normalize 'not getting worse' as a measure of success raises questions about the quality of life and opportunities for citizens in these regions. This strategic pivot could lead to a more centralized and controlled internal landscape, where the state's role in maintaining basic functions supersedes market-driven development, potentially altering the social and economic fabric of the country for decades to come.
