What's Happening?
The China Coast Guard (CCG) has significantly increased its patrols at Scarborough Shoal, a contested area in the South China Sea, according to a report by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI).
The CCG maintained a vessel presence at the shoal for 352 days last year, which is approximately 96% of the time. This marks a substantial increase from previous years, with the number of ship-days more than doubling from 516 in 2024 to 1,099 in 2025. The increased focus on Scarborough Shoal has come at the expense of other areas in the South China Sea, where CCG presence has decreased. The report also notes that the CCG's operations are often supported by the People's Liberation Army Navy, although these are not always visible on AIS data.
Why It's Important?
The intensified patrols by the China Coast Guard at Scarborough Shoal underscore China's strategic interest in asserting control over this disputed maritime area. This development is significant as it reflects China's broader strategy to strengthen its presence in the South China Sea, a region rich in resources and strategic maritime routes. The increased patrols could heighten tensions with the Philippines, which also claims the shoal, and potentially with other Southeast Asian nations. The shift in patrol focus may also impact regional security dynamics, as it suggests a reallocation of Chinese maritime resources that could affect the balance of power in the area.
What's Next?
The increased presence of the China Coast Guard at Scarborough Shoal is likely to prompt responses from neighboring countries, particularly the Philippines, which has already reported aggressive actions by Chinese vessels. The Philippines may seek to bolster its own maritime patrols or seek international support to counterbalance China's actions. Additionally, this development could lead to increased diplomatic engagements or tensions between China and other countries with interests in the South China Sea. Monitoring of the situation by international bodies and further analysis of China's maritime strategy will be crucial in understanding the long-term implications.
