What's Happening?
A new report from Action Against Hunger and its partners indicates that a strengthening El Niño is expected to bring heavier-than-normal rains to the Greater Horn of Africa through the end of the year. This forecast puts millions of people in Ethiopia,
Somalia, and Djibouti at high risk of severe flooding. The report, titled “El Niño Preparedness & Response Situation Update,” details the latest weather predictions, identifies the most vulnerable areas, and outlines necessary preparedness and readiness activities. The Institutionalizing Interoperable Multi-Hazard Preparedness and Anticipatory Action (IMPAACT) program, led by Action Against Hunger and funded by the European Commission, produced this report. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) forecasts up to a 90% chance of above-average rainfall in southern Ethiopia and central and southern Somalia between October and December. This is driven by El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning of potentially very strong El Niño intensity. Hotter-than-normal temperatures are also anticipated, increasing the risk of flash flooding.
Why It's Important?
The impending floods pose a significant threat to a region already grappling with a severe hunger crisis. The latest IGAD report on food crises estimates that 40.3 million people across six countries in the region, including Djibouti and Somalia, are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity in 2026. Years of drought, conflict, displacement, and rising prices have left many households with minimal resources. Floods can devastate crops and livestock, isolate communities from markets, and escalate malnutrition rates, particularly among young children. For instance, in Somalia, approximately 3.4 million people in flood-prone districts are at risk, with around 1.1 million potentially displaced by year-end. In Ethiopia, the national disaster risk management commission has initiated anticipatory actions in 114 districts, affecting an estimated 9.3 million people, especially those along the Wabi Shebelle, Genale, and Dawa rivers. The economic and social disruption from these floods could be catastrophic, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and potentially leading to further humanitarian crises.
What's Next?
Action Against Hunger and its partners have already released funds for anticipatory actions, including cash transfers, early warning messages, and pre-positioned supplies, to help families prepare before the heaviest rains. For example, nearly €88,000 will reach 86,623 people in Ethiopia, and over €99,000 will support 1,100 households (approximately 6,600 people) in Somalia through cash assistance. However, the scale of the threat significantly exceeds current funding. Somalia’s Disaster Management Agency estimates a need of US$350 million to US$500 million in a worst-case scenario. In Ethiopia, resources for anticipatory action are insufficient for the at-risk areas, and the national flood framework is still pending finalization. Aid groups also face challenges reaching some of the hardest-hit districts in Somalia. Donors and governments are urged to invest in flexible financing for preparedness, strengthen early warning systems that communicate in local languages, and support cross-border coordination to mitigate the impact of floods and displacement.
Beyond the Headlines
The recurring and intensifying climate-related disasters in the Horn of Africa highlight a broader global challenge of climate change disproportionately affecting vulnerable regions. The emphasis on anticipatory action, rather than reactive aid, represents a critical shift in humanitarian strategy, aiming to reduce the severity of crises and protect livelihoods before disaster strikes. This approach underscores the economic efficiency of proactive measures, as every dollar spent before a disaster is more effective than one spent afterward. However, the significant funding gap reveals systemic issues in international aid and climate finance, where commitments often fall short of the actual needs of frontline communities. The situation also brings to light the complex interplay of climate vulnerability, food insecurity, and geopolitical instability, creating a cycle of crises that requires sustained, multi-faceted interventions beyond immediate disaster response.
