What's Happening?
Ukraine has reportedly conducted an underwater drone attack on a Russian Kilo-class submarine at the port of Novorossiysk. Satellite imagery analyzed by BBC Verify journalist Joshua Cheetham shows damage
to a pier in the area following the claimed attack. The imagery, taken on December 16, reveals one submarine inside the quay next to an area of heavy damage, while another submarine is seen along the exterior quay wall. Bradley Martin, a senior policy researcher at Rand, suggests that the submarine inside the quay may be sitting lower in the water, indicating possible damage. However, he notes that the evidence is inconclusive, and the video of the explosion released by Ukraine does not definitively confirm the extent of the damage.
Why It's Important?
This development underscores the ongoing tensions between Ukraine and Russia, particularly in the Black Sea region. The use of underwater drones by Ukraine highlights a strategic shift towards asymmetric warfare, targeting high-value Russian naval assets. If the submarine is indeed damaged, it could force Russia to reconsider the deployment and security of its Black Sea Fleet. This incident may also influence international perceptions of the conflict, potentially affecting diplomatic relations and military strategies in the region. The situation could escalate tensions further, impacting regional stability and security.
What's Next?
The Russian Ministry of Defence has released footage claiming the submarine was not damaged, which may lead to further investigations and analyses by military experts and international observers. Ukraine's continued use of innovative military tactics could prompt Russia to enhance its defensive measures in the Black Sea. Additionally, this incident may lead to increased international scrutiny and potential diplomatic responses from other nations involved in the region. The situation remains fluid, with potential for further developments as more information becomes available.
