What's Happening?
A new temperature dataset, GloSAT, released by scientists in the United Kingdom, extends the historical record of Earth's climate back to 1781, challenging the conventional starting point of 1850. This
dataset reveals that the Earth was significantly cooler from the late 1700s through 1849 compared to the period from 1850 to 1900, which has traditionally been used as the 'preindustrial' baseline for assessing climate change. The data suggests that greenhouse gases increased by 2.5% between 1750 and 1850, contributing to some warming not previously accounted for. The study, published in Earth System Science Data, indicates that human activities may have caused approximately 0.09 degrees of warming between 1750 and 1850. This finding is supported by a second study using climate models, which also attributes some early warming to human activities, alongside natural factors like volcanic eruptions.
Why It's Important?
The implications of this new dataset are significant for understanding the extent of human impact on climate change. By suggesting that warming began earlier than previously thought, it challenges the baseline used for international climate agreements, such as the Paris Agreement, which are based on the 1850-1900 period. This could mean that the Earth has already warmed more than current models suggest, potentially affecting climate policy and targets. The findings highlight the need for a reassessment of historical climate data to better understand the full scope of human-induced climate change. This could influence future climate strategies and the urgency with which they are implemented.
What's Next?
The release of the GloSAT dataset may prompt further research into historical climate data, potentially leading to revisions in climate models and projections. Scientists and policymakers might need to consider these findings when setting future climate goals and strategies. The dataset could also encourage more comprehensive studies into the early impacts of industrialization on climate, providing a clearer picture of the historical context of current climate challenges. As the scientific community digests these findings, there may be calls for updated climate assessments and reports that incorporate this new data.
Beyond the Headlines
The GloSAT dataset underscores the complexity of climate science and the importance of historical data in understanding current climate dynamics. It highlights the role of early industrial activities and natural events, such as volcanic eruptions, in shaping the Earth's climate. This broader historical perspective can inform ethical and policy discussions about responsibility and equity in addressing climate change. Understanding the full extent of early human impact on the climate could influence debates on climate justice and the distribution of responsibilities among nations.
