What's Happening?
A new temperature dataset, GloSAT, released by scientists in the UK, extends the historical climate record back to 1781, revealing that the Earth may have warmed more than previously thought. Traditionally, climate data began in 1850, but this new dataset suggests
that greenhouse gases increased by 2.5% between 1750 and 1850, potentially causing unaccounted warming. The dataset indicates a cooler Earth from the late 1700s through 1849 compared to the 1850-1900 period, which is used as the 'preindustrial' baseline for assessing climate change. The study, published in Earth System Science Data, highlights that some warming in the late 19th century could be attributed to natural recovery from volcanic eruptions in the early 1800s. However, human activities likely contributed to warming between 1750 and 1850, with estimates suggesting 0.09 degrees of warming due to human influence.
Why It's Important?
The findings from the GloSAT dataset could alter the understanding of historical climate change, suggesting that human impact on global warming began earlier than previously recognized. This has implications for current climate models and targets, such as those in the Paris Agreement, which are based on the 1850-1900 baseline. The realization of additional early warming may not directly affect current climate goals but underscores the extent of human influence on climate change. It highlights the need for more comprehensive climate policies and actions to mitigate further warming. The study also emphasizes the importance of historical data in understanding long-term climate trends and the potential for increased impacts on global ecosystems and weather patterns.
What's Next?
The new dataset may prompt further research into historical climate data and its implications for current climate models. Scientists and policymakers might need to reassess climate targets and strategies to account for the earlier onset of human-induced warming. The findings could lead to increased advocacy for stronger climate action and more robust international agreements to address the accelerating impacts of climate change. Additionally, the dataset may encourage the development of more accurate climate models that incorporate historical data, providing a clearer picture of future climate scenarios.
Beyond the Headlines
The GloSAT dataset's revelation of earlier warming raises questions about the ethical responsibility of industrialized nations in addressing climate change. It highlights the historical role of industrialization in contributing to global warming and the need for equitable climate solutions that consider historical emissions. The dataset also underscores the importance of preserving historical climate records and integrating them into modern climate science to enhance understanding and inform policy decisions.
