What's Happening?
The National Retail Federation (NRF) has forecasted a decline in U.S. import volumes for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, citing the impact of rising tariffs and early inventory build-up by retailers. The NRF's Global Port Tracker report, prepared by Hackett Associates, indicates that monthly import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports will fall below two million TEU for the rest of the year. The report highlights a nearly three percent decline in TEU volume for 2025, with import volumes peaking at 2.39 million TEU in July and showing a steady monthly decline since. The NRF attributes these declines to the introduction of tariffs, including a 25 percent tariff on upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets, which are set to increase in January.
Why It's Important?
The decline in import volumes has significant implications for the U.S. retail industry and broader economic landscape. Retailers face increased costs due to tariffs, which may lead to higher consumer prices and reduced profit margins. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and potential further increases could impact consumer confidence, especially during the holiday season. Additionally, the decline in import volumes may affect port operations and logistics companies, potentially leading to job losses and economic slowdown in regions reliant on port activities. The NRF's forecast underscores the need for clarity in trade policies to stabilize the retail sector and support economic growth.
What's Next?
The NRF anticipates continued monthly declines in import volumes, with projections showing a consistent drop below two million TEU into early 2026. The organization is closely monitoring the situation, particularly the upcoming deadline for a trade agreement with China on November 10, which could introduce more tariffs if not extended. Retailers are preparing for potential impacts on holiday sales, with the NRF cautioning that the ongoing government shutdown could further erode consumer confidence. The NRF is expected to issue its holiday sales forecast soon, providing more insights into the economic outlook for the retail sector.
