What's Happening?
Thailand has initiated airstrikes along its border with Cambodia following the breakdown of a ceasefire brokered by President Trump. The renewed hostilities have resulted in tens of thousands of people
fleeing their homes. According to Global Firepower's 2025 assessment, Thailand's military is significantly more advanced and better funded than Cambodia's, ranking 25th globally compared to Cambodia's 95th. Thailand's military capabilities include a larger number of personnel, advanced air power, and a substantial defense budget. In contrast, Cambodia's military relies heavily on ground forces and artillery, with support from China in upgrading its equipment. The conflict has already resulted in casualties, with Cambodia reporting civilian deaths and injuries, while Thailand has reported military casualties.
Why It's Important?
The escalation of conflict between Thailand and Cambodia poses significant security risks for the Southeast Asian region. The military imbalance between the two countries could lead to prolonged hostilities, affecting regional stability. The involvement of international actors, such as China, in supporting Cambodia's military, adds a layer of complexity to the conflict. The displacement of tens of thousands of civilians highlights the humanitarian impact of the renewed violence. The situation also tests the effectiveness of international diplomatic efforts, such as those previously led by President Trump, to maintain peace in the region.
What's Next?
Both Thailand and Cambodia are expected to continue military operations, with Thailand likely to focus on precision airstrikes and Cambodia relying on artillery. The conflict is concentrated in disputed border areas, but there is a risk of peripheral impacts affecting nearby villages. International pressure may increase for both countries to adhere to ceasefire agreements and engage in diplomatic negotiations to resolve the conflict. The White House has reiterated President Trump's commitment to ending the violence and expects both governments to honor their commitments.
