What's Happening?
A recent St. Louis University/YouGov poll indicates that both President Trump and Missouri Governor Mike Kehoe have received their first negative approval ratings since taking office. The survey, conducted between August 13 and August 24, polled 900 likely
voters and has a margin of error of approximately 4%. President Trump's net approval has dropped by 19 percentage points since the beginning of 2025, with a 14-point decline since February. Currently, 52% of Missourians disapprove or strongly disapprove of President Trump's performance, while 47% approve or strongly approve. Governor Kehoe's decline is even steeper, with his approval rating falling from 50% in February to 39% last month, and 49% now disapproving of his performance. This marks the first time either official has had a net negative rating in the six-year history of the SLU YouGov poll.
Why It's Important?
These negative approval ratings for President Trump and Governor Kehoe signal potential headwinds for Republican candidates in Missouri as the November elections approach. According to Steve Rogers, poll director and associate professor of political science at St. Louis University, this trend suggests 'MAGA fatigue' and voter dissatisfaction stemming from the Iran war and inflation. The poll results show a significant shift in voter sentiment, with the generic partisan ballots for the fall elections indicating a narrow 4% margin in favor of Republicans for U.S. House and Missouri House seats, a considerable drop from previous leads. This suggests that President Trump's declining popularity could negatively impact other Republican candidates, even those with more favorable local perceptions, as presidential approval is shown to have a substantial impact on state legislative voter choice in Missouri.
What's Next?
The upcoming February poll will be crucial in determining whether Governor Kehoe can recover from his current low approval ratings, as the August poll was taken shortly after the primary election, a period Rogers suggests might have been Kehoe's lowest point. For the broader Republican party in Missouri, the continued decline in President Trump's approval could lead to further challenges in the November elections. The poll also highlights key issues that will likely dominate political discourse, including voter disapproval of the Iran war and widespread concerns about the affordability of healthcare, food, groceries, gasoline, and utility bills. These issues are expected to influence voter behavior and the strategies of both Republican and Democratic campaigns leading up to the elections.
Beyond the Headlines
The poll's findings extend beyond immediate electoral implications, revealing deeper societal concerns and potential shifts in political dynamics. The significant voter dissatisfaction with the Iran war and inflation points to a broader public sentiment that could influence national policy discussions and future political platforms. The concept of 'MAGA fatigue' suggests a potential re-evaluation of political ideologies and leadership styles among a segment of the electorate. Furthermore, the poll's insights into public perception of education, particularly the support for A-F grade cards for schools and the strong desire for increased teacher salaries, indicate areas where state-level policies could see significant public pressure and reform efforts, reflecting a public demand for accountability and investment in public services.
