What's Happening?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are leading the growth in non-OPEC crude oil production, contributing significantly to the global increase in output. In Brazil, crude oil production surged in 2025,
surpassing 4.0 million barrels per day (MMbpd) due to new deepwater developments. Guyana's oil production has grown nearly tenfold since 2020, with significant contributions from the Stabroek Block operated by ExxonMobil. Argentina's production is driven by the Vaca Muerta shale play, with output expected to rise to 810,000 barrels per day by 2026. These countries are expected to account for about half of the global crude oil production growth in 2026.
Why It's Important?
The increase in crude oil production from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina highlights the shifting dynamics in global energy markets, where non-OPEC countries are playing a more prominent role. This growth can help stabilize global oil prices by offsetting production cuts from OPEC+ countries. For the U.S., increased production from these countries could mean more stable energy prices and diversified sources of oil imports. Additionally, the technological advancements and investments in these regions could lead to further economic development and job creation, impacting global energy supply chains and market strategies.
What's Next?
As these countries continue to expand their oil production capabilities, they may attract further investments in infrastructure and technology, enhancing their roles in the global energy market. The start-up of new projects, such as Guyana's Uaru project and additional FPSOs in Brazil, will likely contribute to sustained growth. The EIA's forecast suggests that these developments will continue to shape global supply balances, potentially influencing international energy policies and trade agreements. Monitoring these trends will be crucial for stakeholders in the energy sector.
