Aviation Week Forecasts Significant Growth in Business Jet Deliveries Over Next Decade

What's Happening?

Aviation Week Network has released a forecast projecting substantial growth in business jet deliveries over the next decade. The report anticipates more than 9,000 new business jets will be delivered worldwide, averaging 900 per year, which will account for 77% of all business jet deliveries. This marks an increase from the average of about 700 deliveries per year between 2017 and 2025. The forecast also predicts 2,650 turboprop deliveries, contributing to a total of 11,729 business jet and turboprop deliveries valued at $289.9 billion over the ten-year period. The report highlights robust business aviation deliveries, with manufacturers experiencing extended order backlogs of 18 to 24 months, allowing them to maintain control over pricing. However, challenges such as maintenance, repair, overhaul costs, supply chain issues, and labor shortages are causing delays in the market.

Why It's Important?

The projected increase in business jet deliveries signifies a strong demand in the aviation sector, which could have significant implications for manufacturers, suppliers, and the broader economy. The growth in deliveries suggests a healthy market for business aviation, potentially leading to increased employment opportunities and economic activity in related industries. However, the forecast also highlights ongoing challenges such as supply chain shortages and labor force issues, which could impact production rates and market stability. The dominance of North America in business aviation deliveries, with 69% of shipments expected in the region, underscores the importance of this market for U.S. manufacturers like Textron Aviation and Gulfstream.

What's Next?

Manufacturers are likely to continue facing supply chain and labor challenges, which could affect production rates and delivery timelines. The forecast suggests a cautious approach to the development and introduction of new models, with manufacturers needing to address these issues to meet demand. The pre-owned aircraft market may gain viability as manufacturers manage production constraints. Stakeholders in the aviation industry, including suppliers and service providers, will need to adapt to these dynamics to capitalize on the projected growth in business jet deliveries.

Beyond the Headlines

The forecast indicates potential shifts in market dynamics, with small jets expected to comprise the largest share of deliveries over the next decade. This could lead to changes in consumer preferences and demand for specific aircraft types. Additionally, the projected retirements of older aircraft models, such as the Cessna Citation and Bombardier Learjet, may influence the market for pre-owned aircraft and impact the availability of parts and services for these models.