What's Happening?
China has been expanding and upgrading several nuclear-related sites in Sichuan Province, as reported by satellite imagery. This development aligns with China's broader strategy to modernize and expand its nuclear arsenal. The upgrades are occurring at secret
research locations such as Zitong and Pingtong, which were initially built under Mao Zedong's 'Third Front' initiative. These sites are receiving significant investment, with Pingtong featuring a refurbished main structure and a 360-foot-high ventilation stack. The upgrades come at a time when global arms-control frameworks are under strain, particularly following the expiration of the New START treaty between the United States and Russia. This treaty was the last remaining agreement limiting US and Russian strategic nuclear forces.
Why It's Important?
The expansion of China's nuclear capabilities is a growing point of tension with the United States, which has been advocating for China's inclusion in future arms-control agreements. The Pentagon estimates that China had over 600 nuclear warheads by the end of 2024 and could reach 1,000 by 2030. This increase in nuclear capability could influence crisis behavior, particularly in scenarios involving Taiwan. The expiration of the New START treaty leaves a vacuum in formal nuclear arms limits, prompting Washington to call for broader talks that include China. However, Beijing has resisted being bound by US-Russia frameworks, complicating diplomatic efforts.
What's Next?
With the expiration of the New START treaty, the United States is likely to continue pushing for broader arms-control discussions that include China. However, China's reluctance to join such frameworks may lead to increased diplomatic tensions. The ongoing upgrades at Chinese nuclear sites suggest that Beijing is committed to expanding its nuclear capabilities, which could further strain US-China relations. The international community may need to explore new strategies for arms control that address the evolving nuclear landscape.
