From Bangladesh to Nepal, US to Israel: Elections that New Delhi will be closely watching in 2026

The year 2026 opened with an unmistakable signal: politics across the world is entering a decisive phase. January alone saw three major elections across Africa, Asia and Europe, setting the tone for what is set to be one of the most electorally dense years in recent history. By the end of the year, more than 40 countries—home to nearly one-fifth of the global population—will have gone to the polls, with outcomes likely to reshape domestic politics, economic strategies and global alignments.

January: Authoritarian Endurance, Democratic Tests

In Africa, Uganda’s long-serving President Yoweri Museveni extended his grip on power yet again. The 81-year-old leader, who first rose to power as a rebel commander in 1986, was declared the winner with 72 per cent of the vote, according to the election commission. His closest challenger, pop star-turned-politician Bobi Wine, secured 25 per cent and promptly dismissed the outcome as “fake”, accusing authorities of ballot stuffing.

Museveni’s victory, while widely anticipated, came amid serious concerns. The United Nations said the election campaign was marked by “widespread repression and intimidation”, including crackdowns on opposition rallies—underscoring the shrinking space for political dissent in the country.

Asia’s first election of the year delivered an even starker verdict. Myanmar’s military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party swept the country’s tightly controlled three-phase general election, securing overwhelming majorities in both chambers of parliament. The party won 232 of 263 seats in the Pyithu Hluttaw, the lower house, and 109 of 157 seats in the Amyotha Hluttaw, the upper chamber.

Held amid an ongoing civil war and widespread repression, the election was swiftly rejected by the 11-member Asean bloc, while human rights organisations and several Western governments dismissed it as a sham.

Europe’s January contest, by contrast, played out within a competitive democratic framework. Portugal’s presidential election produced no outright winner in its first round, though António José Seguro, a former leader of the Socialist Party, edged ahead of far-right Chega leader André Ventura. Pre-election surveys had consistently shown Ventura commanding strong support, raising fears of a breakthrough for the far right. With no candidate securing an absolute majority, the race headed to a run-off scheduled for early February—the first such contest in Portugal in four decades.

February: Snap Elections and Surprises

February began with a political flourish, featuring one scheduled presidential election in Europe and two snap elections in Asia.

Japan delivered the month’s most dramatic result. Although no parliamentary election was due, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s first woman to hold the office, called a snap poll for 8 February, just three months after taking office. It was a risky move, particularly as her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) had been weakened by a political funding scandal.

The gamble paid off spectacularly. Takaichi’s LDP secured a historic landslide, winning 316 of the 465 seats in the Lower House—enough for a two-thirds supermajority on its own and the highest proportion of seats ever won by a single party in post-war Japan. Together with its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, the ruling bloc captured an astonishing 352 seats. The opposition Central Reform Alliance, hastily formed before the election, was reduced to just 49 seats.

Calling the result a mandate for bold change, Takaichi said voters had endorsed major shifts in economic, fiscal and security policy—areas that had drawn fierce opposition. For the 64-year-old conservative leader, the result was a powerful vindication.

Portugal’s presidential run-off, meanwhile, offered a different kind of clarity. António José Seguro decisively defeated André Ventura, winning 66.7 per cent of the vote to secure a five-year term. While the Portuguese presidency is largely ceremonial, Seguro’s victory was widely seen as a rejection of the far right. Yet Ventura’s 33.3 per cent share—making him the first extreme-right candidate to reach a run-off—highlighted the growing influence of populist movements in Portugal and across Europe.

Asia’s third February election took place in Thailand, where a snap poll returned the ruling Bhumjaithai Party to a commanding position. With around 90 per cent of votes counted, the conservative-royalist party appeared on course to win 194 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives, comfortably ahead of the reformist People’s Party.

The outcome marked a shift from recent elections, signalling voter preference for continuity and establishment politics amid regional uncertainty. As The New York Times noted, the vote was a resounding success for Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul, who had called the snap election to pre-empt a possible no-confidence motion.

Elections to Watch: A Crowded Global Calendar

Beyond the opening months, the rest of 2026 promises even greater political turbulence.

Bangladesh’s general election on February 12 stands out as one of the most consequential in South Asia. It is the first vote since Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League government was toppled by student-led protests in August 2024. With Hasina in exile, Khaleda Zia deceased, and the Awami League barred from contesting, the field is fractured. Alongside the election, voters will decide a referendum on the July Charter, which proposes sweeping constitutional reforms.

Nepal follows with parliamentary elections in March, triggered by a Generation Z uprising that forced the resignation of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and installed former Chief Justice Sushila Karki as interim leader. With 114 parties contesting—many newly formed and youth-led—the vote reflects deep political churn.

In Europe, Hungary’s April parliamentary election could prove pivotal. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, in power since 2010, faces his toughest challenge yet from Peter Magyar’s Tisza Party. The result will shape Hungary’s domestic trajectory and its delicate balancing act between the European Union and Russia.

Latin America’s spotlight falls on Colombia in May and Brazil in October. Colombia’s presidential race will determine whether the country can revive stalled peace processes and contain rising violence. Brazil’s election, meanwhile, sees President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term amid economic uncertainty and political polarisation.

Africa’s electoral calendar is equally heavy. Ethiopia’s June general election is expected to reaffirm Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s dominance, despite concerns over fairness. South Sudan, after years of delay, is scheduled to hold its first-ever elections in December, a milestone following a brutal civil war that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.

Finally, Israel’s October parliamentary election will be the first since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, and the devastating Gaza war. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a credible challenge from former premier Naftali Bennett, with polls suggesting a close contest.

Overlaying all of this are the US midterm elections in November, which are certain to command global attention. As Fortune magazine has observed, history suggests a high likelihood that President Donald Trump’s party will lose seats, potentially weakening his hold on Congress.

A Year of Consequence

From disputed ballots and snap elections to historic landslides and democratic pushback against extremism, 2026 is shaping up as a year of political reckoning. As governments rise and fall across continents, the choices made at the ballot box will reverberate far beyond national borders—reshaping alliances, testing institutions and redefining the global political order.

(The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India-based impact consultant. He is President of Advisory Services at BARSYL. Views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s position.)