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The deliberations come ahead of a mandatory review of the agreement later this year, raising questions about the future of North America’s trade architecture.
Although no formal decision has been made, the report said Trump has asked his aides to explain why the US should remain in the agreement he signed during his first term. However, he has not explicitly indicated that he intends to withdraw.
Review year under scrutiny
The USMCA, which replaced the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), contains a “sunset clause” requiring a joint review by July 1. If all three countries—the United States, Mexico and Canada—agree, the deal can be extended for another 16 years. If consensus is not reached, it would face annual reviews until its scheduled expiry in 2036. Any member country may withdraw with six months’ notice.
The Office of the United States Trade Representative has indicated that the review will not be a routine exercise. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer recently said negotiations would proceed separately with Mexico and Canada, describing Mexico as “quite pragmatic” and noting that discussions with Canada have been “more challenging.”
Economic stakes are high
The agreement governs nearly $2 trillion in annual trade in goods and services across North America. It tightened automotive rules of origin, modernised digital trade provisions and strengthened labour enforcement standards.
Given the deep integration of supply chains—particularly in automobiles, agriculture and energy—even the possibility of a US withdrawal has unsettled markets. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso briefly weakened on reports of internal discussions in Washington before stabilising.
Leverage or lasting shift?
Trump has in recent months renewed tariff threats and criticised trade imbalances with both neighbours. He has alternated between praising the USMCA as superior to NAFTA and questioning whether it delivers sufficiently for American workers—fuelling speculation that withdrawal talk could serve as negotiating leverage rather than a definitive policy pivot.
Leaders in Ottawa and Mexico City have publicly downplayed the likelihood of a US exit, emphasising the strategic and economic value of the agreement to all three economies.
Any move to withdraw would likely face domestic scrutiny. The USMCA was enacted through congressional approval, and influential US business groups—particularly in the automotive and agricultural sectors—are expected to resist any step that risks higher tariffs or retaliatory measures from America’s two largest trading partners.
