What's Happening?
NASA and IBM have introduced Surya, an open-source AI model designed to improve solar storm forecasting. Surya enhances the lead time and accuracy of predicting solar flares, providing scientists with the ability to forecast these events two hours in advance and pinpoint their location on the Sun's surface. The model is trained on nine years of high-resolution solar observation data from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, which has been continuously monitoring the Sun since 2010. This development aims to address gaps in space weather forecasting that threaten critical infrastructure on Earth and in orbit.
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Why It's Important?
The ability to predict solar storms is crucial for protecting infrastructure such as satellites, power grids, and communication systems from geomagnetic disturbances. A severe solar storm could potentially cause billions of dollars in damage globally. Surya's improved forecasting capabilities offer decision-makers critical lead time to safeguard vulnerable systems, thereby mitigating economic losses and enhancing resilience against space weather impacts. The model's open-source nature encourages broader scientific engagement and innovation in solar weather prediction.
What's Next?
Following the release of Surya, the scientific community is expected to explore its applications and challenge its capabilities. IBM plans to test the model's applicability to the current solar cycle and explore continuous training with new data. The open-source model is available for researchers to develop new applications, potentially leading to advancements in space weather prediction and infrastructure protection.
