The Braves won a championship in 2021, and won 100 games in back-to-back seasons following that, but this season has been a disaster. They’re on pace to have their worst season since they lost 93 games in 2016. The team has gone into freefall in July, dropping 15 of their 21 games this month. Their 18-34 road record is fourth-worst in baseball.
Atlanta Braves (44-60) vs. Kansas City Royals (52-54) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Braves: 4.11 runs scored/game (23rd in MLB), 4.33 runs allowed/game
AD(16th)
Royals: 3.55 runs scored/game (29th), 3.73 runs allowed/game (2nd)
Ronald Acuña Jr. returned from a knee injury to return to his All-Star status. His 176 wRC+ is third-best among all hitters with at least 200 plate appearances. He is a lifetime 6-for-12 (.500) hitter against Seth Lugo. Michael Harris II got off to a dreadful start this year, but has come around lately. He’s batting .293/.312/.547 this month, including a 4-for-4 performance on Saturday. Sean Murphy is hitting .255/.344/.585 on the road. Rookie catcher Drake Baldwin is fifth among all rookie hitters in fWAR at 2.1.
Marcell Ozuna is hitting just .141/.265/.239 in his last 23 games. Austin Riley just returned from an abdominal injury. He has the ninth-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 28.3 percent. Ozzie Albies is hitting just .218/.243/.264 against lefties. Jurickson Profar missed 80 games due to a suspension for PED use, returning in early July.
Braves shortstop Nick Allen leads all of baseball in Outs Above Average, and the team overall is sixth-best in baseball. Murphy has thrown out 30 percent of would-be basestealers, while Baldwin has nailed just 14 percent. Only three teams have stolen fewer bases than the Braves.
The Braves rotation has been decimated with all five starters that began the year with them now on the Injured List. Former All-Star Spencer Strider starts Monday, although he has struggled on the road with a 4.55 ERA. He has 32 strikeouts in 23 2⁄3 innings over his last four starts with a 3.42 ERA. He relies heavily on a 95.6 mph fastball, with a devastating slider and curve, each of which have a 52 percent whiff rate.
Atlanta has not yet named a starter for Tuesday, but it will likely be Erick Fedde, who they just acquired from the Cardinals. Fedde has been awful lately, giving up 26 runs in 17 2⁄3 innings over his last five starts. He has given up just one run in 10 1⁄3 innings in two career starts against the Royals. He relies on a sinker to yield a 40 percent groundball rate, but opponents are hitting .322 against his cutter.
Kansas City native Joey Wentz will start on Wednesday in the stadium he grew up cheering for the Royals. He has a career 6.23 in three games there. The Braves are Wentz’s third team this year after stints with the Pirates and Twins. Wentz throws a 94 mph fastball with a cutter and curve. The Royals have not yet announced a starter for Wednesday, after losing Kris Bubic to injury.
Former All-Star closer Raisel Iglesias has had a rough year, although he has a 2.70 ERA over his last 18 outings, with 21 strikeouts in 16 2⁄3 innings. He has blown five saves this year, converting just 11. Lefty Aaron Bummer has the ninth-highest ground ball rate at 58.9 percent and he is just one of two qualified relievers who have yet to allow a home run. Opponents are hitting just .124 with a 43.7 percent whiff rate against Dylan Lee’s slider.
The Braves are far out of contention and could look to move pieces for prospects. Sean Murphy, Marcell Ozuna, Piece Johnson, and Raisel Iglesias among the players involved in trade rumors. The Braves have been one of the most well-run franchises in baseball for decades, but the Royals are fortunate to catch them now when they’re down. If they want to climb back into the Wild Card race, they’ll likely need a series win this week against Atlanta.
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