
The playoff odds for the San Francisco Giants stand at 44.4% as of this morning, which gives us something to root for over the next 65 games. But in order for them to get to the postseason for the first time since 2021, they’re going to need a bit more roster stability.
With the lineup, that stability might come in the form of great players performing closer to their career norms. The rotation, though, doesn’t have such an underpinning, and as the trade deadline approaches, another arm in the rotation might be
just what they need.
Yesterday, Buster Posey downplayed the idea of capping innings for Landen Roupp and Hayden Birdsong, who are projected to blow past previous personal records for innings pitched in a season. He told KNBR, “I think it’s a disservice to the player to say, ‘OK, this is how many innings you’re going to throw this year, this is your marker.’ Even if you ballpark it, I think it’s just a mental disadvantage to that.”
Posey’s plan only sounds solid to most because he’s the one saying it. It might even work for the same reason, but he knows that you can never have enough pitching. He also knows that the cost to acquire a starter can be steep. The Devers deal assured fandom that ownership will expand the budget to accommodate a no doubt talent, but unless Chris Sale becomes available (Atlanta says he’s not), there’s not a costly starter out there in all likelihood. And if Posey did say that out of a genuine belief, well...
We all saw Birdsong look fatigued throughout the second half of 2024 and started to leak oil heading into this year’s All-Star break. Roupp might have the will to throw 160+ innings, but pitchers are notorious for breaking down because they push too hard. Justin Verlander has already made one trip to the IL.
But if my eye test scouting and anecdata leave you unconvinced, let’s examine the matter another way. With 65 games remaining, that gives 585 innings left to cover. Through the first 97 games of 2025, the starting rotation has covered ~61% of the team’s innings. Using that figure, that would be ~357 innings. Let’s round down to 355 innings. Does it look like the starting rotation, as presently constructed, will be able to manage that?
Well... let’s figure that Logan Webb will average 6 innings per start going forward while everyone else averages 5. With 65 games left for 5 rotation spots, that gives every starter 13 more turns, giving them this many more innings in 2025:
Logan Webb — 78 IP
Robbie Ray — 65 IP
Landen Roupp — 65 IP
Justin Verlander — 65 IP
Hayden Birdsong — 65 IP
That’s 338 IP, which gets us close enough to 355 IP that it does suggest starting pitching won’t be at the top of the shopping list come the trade deadline. Still, let’s add these projected innings to the current tally. I want to see something:
Logan Webb — 78 IP + 125.2 IP = 203.2 IP
Robbie Ray — 65 IP + 119 IP = 184 IP
Landen Roupp — 65 IP + 96.1 IP = 161.1 IP
Justin Verlander — 65 IP + 76.2 IP = 141.2 IP
Hayden Birdsong — 65 IP + 65.2 IP = 130.2 IP
It’s not an outlandish projection until you go through them case by case. Sure, Logan Webb has tallied 200+ innings in each of the past couple of seasons, so we’ll leave that one alone. Robbie Ray, though? He hasn’t pitched that many innings since 2022, and even though he’s now two years out from Tommy John surgery, it’s fair to question just how effective we’ll be at the end, if he can even make it to that number.
Two points of comparison: last season was Garrett Crochet’s second season after Tommy John. The White Sox were conservative, holding him to 129 IP. A much older Justin Verlander threw 175 IP two years out from his Tommy John surgery back in 2020.
With Landen Roupp, I’m compelled to point that just 43 pitchers have thrown between 155-162 innings between 2021-2024, the last four full seasons. Of this bunch, I clocked 15 who set new career innings marks.
Without getting into what happened to these guys after they posted career highs, I just want to point out how few exceptions there are concerning leaps in innings. Roupp’s current career-best is 107.1 IP across A-ball and Double-A back in 2022. Brayan Bello, Luis Garcia, and Hunter Brown are the only real comps here.
Bello hit 117 in 2019 and didn’t jump over 100 IP again until 2023. Hunter Brown hit 106 innings in 2022 before his jump to 155.2 in 2023. Luis Garcia threw 108.2 IP in 2019 in A-ball and then 155.1 in 2021. In all three of these cases, the COVID year was a likely culprit for stunting their development. While that might be a factor in Roupp’s, we also know that injuries have set him back plenty over the years.
Justin Verlander ought to be able to hit that number simply from muscle memory. Whether or not those innings are better than replacement level remains to be seen (he’s at +0.7 fWAR right now). Meanwhile, that projected total for Birdsong is right about what he did last season between the minors and majors. Roupp is having the year many hoped Birdsong would have, which means that Birdsong’s spot is a lot shakier.
Realistically, there’s maybe a 40-60 inning problem here, and if you want to throw in “quality innings,” then that range increases. I’ve rambled on here to show the work of why I think the Giants do need another starting pitcher. Now here are some options.
But first: on Sunday, I checked in on my preseason hopes and dreams to see which still had a shot at being fulfilled at season’s end. I also threw in some more hopes and dreams for the second half. One of those was a dream beyond all reason: trading for Kansas City’s All-Star lefty rotation piece Kris Bubic (2.48 ERA in 108.2 IP). Not only would he cost a fortune in prospects that the Giants probably don’t have to offer, as reader SeaPilot93 pointed out at the end of that post, Bubic is on pace to exceed his single season innings mark (130 IP in 2021) — and that’s the scenario we’d be trying to avoid with any deal!
So, I really think “veteran with experience” would be the angle Zack Minasian might take — if the Giants are actually in the market for a starter (and they should be, according to me). And, to really maximize a potential trade, I think they should look at a left-handed starter. Why? The Giants aren’t the only NL team that struggles against left-handed pitching. It’s the entire NL (91 wRC+ combined).
Here are three left-handed pitchers, who would provide the Giants with the innings plug I think they’ll need.
Tyler Anderson (Angels)
Current innings total: 101.2 IP
2024 innings total: 179.1 IP
Contract total: $13,000,000 (final year)
Contract remaining: $5.22 million
A reunion with the one-time Giant makes a lot of sense. He’s been an All-Star two of the last four seasons (once with the Dodgers and again with the Angels), and he’s hit 175+ IP thrice in his career, most recently last season.
He could very easily help the Giants design a pitching plan that gives Ray-Roupp-Birdsong more rest, and that’s before consideration of any minor league options filling in sporadically. But is he better than those potential fill-ins? Say, Carson Whisenhunt or Kai-Wei Teng or a surprise Joe Whitman call-up? It’s very close, and the only reason I’m including him is that I could see the Giants finding value in his veteran status.
Performance-wise, he’s hovering around a 5.00 FIP. His 3.82 interleague ERA is a bit deceptive, too. It’s lower than you’d expect because of a pair of 6 shutout innings: one against Atlanta (97 wRC+) and another against the Giants (94 wRC+). He’s allowed 14 ER in 21 IP against other NL opponents (Dodgers, Dbacks, Cardinals, and Pirates).
Low strikeouts, high walks, low velocity, lots of flyballs. He is a walking red flag who has pitched about as well as Justin Verlander (+0.7 fWAR). The Angels are still in the AL Wild Card mix, too, which might snuff out a deal. But the acquisition cost might be reasonable for the Giants’ post-Devers farm system.
Andrew Heaney (Pirates)
Current innings total: 98 IP
2024 innings total: 160 IP
Contract total: $5,250,000 (final year)
Contract remaining: $2.11 million
Another Angel/Dodger, but who spent the past two seasons pitching for Bruce Bochy, which suggests he and Buster Posey speak the same language and he has the championship pedigree the clubhouse needs.
The biggest drawbacks are rather large. He’s another 5-FIP guy, and the Giants just purged a Heaney from their roster. Eno Sarris had this to say about Kyle Harrison being traded away:
Why I would trade Kyle Harrison: he’s a low slot high spin efficiency starter, like an Andrew Heaney. Very difficult to find secondary pitches that are elite for them, especially if they don’t turn over changeups well. Best is to hope velo stays up, develop many meh secondaries.
— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) June 15, 2025
He’s basically a 90 mph fastball guy with slow breaking stuff. A slow, slow, and slower pitcher with an atypical delivery. That might get some casuals to imagine a Kirk Rueter type, but Rueter didn’t walk guys or surrender flyballs at the rates Heaney does. Still, he has about a 3.50 ERA against the National League for his career and Oracle Park might be a good landing spot for him.
You can imagine Posey getting on the horn with Bochy to talk about Heaney’s personality and hanging up satisfied by Boch’s assessment. His contract fits into a tight budget. The Giants have had great success in their history when they’ve traded with the Pirates at the deadline, too.
Patrick Corbin (Rangers)
Current innings total: 93.1 IP
2024 innings total: 174.2 IP
Contract total: $1,100,000 (final year)
Contract remaining: $441,358.02
Woof. I don’t even want to ask you to hear me out. I’ll simply explain why he’s here. After being THE WORST STARTER IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL from 2021-2024 (31-63 with a 5.71 ERA, never missing a start), he has found some semblance of good by catching on with the Rangers near the end of Spring Training.
Corbin has definitely figured something out on the pitching end. His hard hit rate against is the lowest figure since 2019. He’s throwing his slider more and that is helping a lot (38.1% Whiff rate). He is just a little bit better than the two options above (lower walk rate, slightly more average velocity), and the Rangers have the chance to get something not-terrible in trade for literally Patrick Corbin if they decide that they won’t be competing for a postseason berth in 2025. That’s perhaps the flaw in my reasoning here, because maybe Texas doesn’t think they’re out of it just yet. And that’s the only flaw in my reasoning where Patrick Corbin is concerned. Yep.
These are some unsexy picks to be sure, but if the Giants approach the deadline having to thread the needle, then they make some moves at the margins hoping that the sum of the parts equals something great. They might also disagree with my assessment that another left-handed starter is just what the doctor ordered.
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