We’ve taken a look at our favorite diminutive second baseman a couple times this season. Once in April. Once in June. Neither time looked great. But we’re a few months down the road, so where are we?
We’re now officially 500 PA into 2025, and the results have not been good. They’ve been abysmal, really. His .222/.297/.319 like is buoyed (?) by the best walk rate of his career. The 74 wRC+ is the worst in his career by 20 points, and he’s barely surpassing replacement level. To be honest, I’m surprised
it’s even above.
Let’s first take a look at that walk rate. He hasn’t really become a more disciplined hitter as his swing rate on pitches out of the zone is right on his career average. Albies is simply a more passive hitter. His in zone swing rate and overall swing rates are way down, 3-4 percentage points each. So yes, he is walking more, but it’s mostly because he’s swinging less. And it may not be worth it if he loses elsewhere.
So that brings us to the quality of contact. His Statcast for 2025 (you might want to prepare yourself) …
That is a lot of very dark blue. His bat speed is in the toilet. His exit velocity is nearly there. He’s not barreling anything, and all off the expected metrics aren’t fans either. Ozzie’s ISO is currently (albeit narrowly) under .100, and it’s never been below .150 in his career.
The switch-hitter’s spray chart is also interesting. 2024 …
2025 …
You’ll notice the complete absence of things in left field. Now, he’s a switch-hitter, and this is a collective chart. So it doesn’t indicate pulling or hitting the opposite way. It’s that Ozzie can’t hit lefties anymore.
I’ll say that again. He’s lost the ability to hit lefties.
Okay, that’s a bit dramatic. But after hitting for a 134 wRC+ and half of his career home runs in a third of the PA as a righty versus a lefty, he has zero home runs as a right-handed hitter this season. ZERO. His wRC+ is 60 and lower than his line against right-handed pitchers. His strength has become a weakness.
Albies hasn’t escaping been good against righties, either, but it’s not that far off from his career norm. It’s close enough to where you’d think there was some variation happening, but Ozzie has been atrocious against the very thing that at times made him look like a god.
There’s probably some coaching going on here. The team is middle of the pack in offense, and it shouldn’t be. Even with people missing time, it shouldn’t be this bad. Albies has clearly taken a different approach – more passive, slower swings – and it’s led to the worst year of his career to this point.
And it’s mildly amusing because he’s been quietly fine defensively. After a several year downward trend, he’s perked back up, and he’s been around average by most metrics. It’s oddly enough the thing holding him up above sea level in terms of value.
So where does that leave us with him? He’s got a $7 million option next year. Do you pick it up?
You’re probably expecting me to say no, and if Atlanta decided not to, I wouldn’t argue. But it’s $7 million dollars, and it’s Ozzie. He’s accumulated over 20 wins of value in his career, has seemingly always been a bright spot in the clubhouse, and the talent level at second base these days is … bad.
But I’d have a better backup plan in place.
(Of course, he has his best game of the season last night.)
