Not much has changed in the week since the last series preview for these two teams, except for one big question being answered. I went into it pitching the idea that the Giants were already a non-playoff team given their poor play for a month and a half; and, I spotlighted one player who could make my notion a reality.
I offered that Pirates outfielder Tommy Pham had “once slapped the playoffs out of the Giants’ mouths. Does he have the strength to do it again? He is 1-for-19 in his last two trips
to Oracle Park (6 games, 20 PA).” It turns out he did still have the strength — and he used it. He was 5-for-8 in 2 of the 3 games with a double, an RBI, and 2 runs scored.
The San Francisco Giants were just 3 games out of the last Wild Card spot and 7 games behind division-leading Los Angeles; but then, the Pittsburgh Pirates swept them in Oracle Park and turned them from maybe-buyers at the trade deadline to sellers. Now, Pham isn’t the reason the Giants are unlikely to make the postseason, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t sweep the Pirates and make him look bad at the same time.
Revenge, of course, is very petty and probably disastrous for the one who seeks it. Besides, the Pirates already embarrassed the Giants into irrelevance with that sweep and they’re one of the worst teams in the sport. The Giants aren’t going to sweep them in return and simultaneously catapult themselves back into the third Wild Card chase while making the dreadful Pirates dreadful-er.
Unless?
No, the Giants woke up this morning to a 9-game division deficit and 6-game chasm between themselves and the third Wild Card. Even if we adjust the lower bound of wins it would take to sneak into the postseason (the most probable way in if it happens), they’d have to go 30-20 over these final 50 games to have a shot.
You’re probably thinking, “Well Bryan, you dingus, you absolute moron — who I hate — the Giants’ 19-12 record after the first month of the season was a 61% winning percentage, which is better than the 60% rate you say they can’t do. So... idiot... it’s possible.” And you might be right. I mean, the math and the history of baseball is heavily against your wild conclusion that they’re still in this thing, but it’s not impossible.
Depending on how you think about a trip to Coors Field to play an awful Rockies team, this three-game set in Pittsburgh may or may not be the last easy road series the Giants will have in 2025, so if they have any designs on making a move (while hoping 2-3 teams ahead of them completely collapse), they’ll need to win this series — a sweep would be better. After picking on an allegedly great Mets team, we should expect nothing less.
The Pirates have won 9 of 12 thanks in part to that sweep in Oracle, and they’re 31-25 at home this season, including an 11-4 record over their last 15. The Giants are 6-14 in their last 20 games, with 4 of those wins coming on the road. The Giants are just 28-30 on the road here in 2025, but they have a +22 run differential and, rather shockingly, they have scored the sixth-most runs on the road to this point.
Their 265 road runs trail the Brewers, Cubs, Mariners, Yankees, and Diamondbacks, and it works out to 4.56 runs per game, compared to just 3.70 runs at home. At the end of the Mets series preview, I offered this: “if they win any games in New York or Pittsburgh I encourage you, for your own sanity, to draw the conclusion that they simply don’t like playing in front of fans at Oracle Park.”
The Pirates traded away Gold Glove third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, their closer David Bednar, left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson, and their #3 starter Bailey Falter. Those who remain are the ones who cause all the trouble: Tommy Pham, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Andrew McCutchen, Joey Bart, Jack Suwinski, Spencer Horwitz, Liover Peguero; but also, Johan Oviedo returns from Tommy John surgery after missing all of 2024 to face a team he has done well against in his career. He has a 2.35 ERA in 15.1 IP (3 GS).
In essence, Pittsburgh got rid of the guys who could help the Pirates sustain a lead against the Giants. With those players out of the way, can the Giants limit the players who do the most damage?
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
Where: PNC Park | Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
When: Monday & Tuesday at 3:40pm PT, Wednesday at 9:35am PT
National broadcasts: None
Projected starters
Monday: Justin Verlander (RHP 1-8, 4.53 ERA) vs. Johan Oviedo (season debut)
Tuesday: Logan Webb (RHP 9-8, 3.31 ERA) vs. Mike Burrows (RHP 1-3, 3.88 ERA)
Wednesday: Robbie Ray (LHP 9-5, 2.85 ERA) vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP 5-9, 4.89 ERA)
Where they stand
Giants, 56-56 (3rd in NL West), 465 RS / 457 RA | Last 10: 3-7 | 6.0 GB WC3
Mets, 48-64 (5th in NL Central), 399 RS / 450 RA | Last 10: 7-3 | 14.0 GB WC3
Prediction time
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