Brad Lord has been one of the few pleasant surprises for the Washington Nationals in 2025. An 18th round pick from South Florida in the 2022 MLB Draft, Lord put his name on the map by simply just performing at every level he was at, jumping from High A to Triple A with a 2.43 ERA in 129 2⁄3 innings pitched. He was considered a long shot to make the big league club out of spring training in 2025, but once again, just performed so well that he forced the clubs hand, earning a spot in the Nats bullpen.
Lord was considered by many mainly a feel good story, a Home Depot employee in the winter who earned a backend of the bullpen spot in the bigs, but has proven he not only belongs, but that he is a difference maker. Whatever the Nationals have asked of Lord in 2025, he’s done, and done admirably, whether that be relief work, spot starts, or a full time rotation gig like he has now. In 74 1⁄3 innings pitched this season, he has a 3.27 ERA and 1.2 fWAR, with solid underlying numbers to back it up as well.
So how does Lord, a righty without overpowering stuff and strikeout numbers, operate so effectively? He does so by doing the 3 most important things for non-strikeout pitchers; he avoids barrels, he doesn’t walk a lot of hitters, and he keeps the ball on the ground. Lord’s 4.6% barrel rate is in the 96th percentile for all pitchers in baseball. His 83rd percentile average exit velocity means he is one of the very best at avoiding damage, forcing hitters to beat him by drawing walks or battling until they get a mistake pitch.
As for the walks, Lord is no Greg Maddux, but he certainly isn’t allowing everyone on base, with his 7.9% walk rate ranking in the 54th percentile. It will be interesting to watch how this number changes as he spends more time as a starter, where he needs to rely on 3-4 pitches rather than 1-2 out of the pen, but so far in his 2 starts back in the rotation, he’s allowed just 1 walk in 9 1⁄3 innings pitched.
When Lord does get hit hard, he excels at keeping it on the ground, as his 49.8% ground ball rate ranks in the 82nd percentile. His does this with his sinker, which gets an impressive average of 26 inches of vertical drop, and by keeping it down in the zone at all times, causing hitters to get on top of it and drive it into the ground.
While Lord’s sinker is an effective ground ball pitch, and his slider is his best swing and miss pitch, it’s his fastball that is his bread and butter. While its velocity is solid, sitting around 95 MPH, it’s the break it features that makes it such an impressive pitch. Out of every MLB pitcher in 2025 to face at least 300 batters, no one gets more arm side run on their fastball than Brad Lord, averaging 15.4 inches of horizontal break, over 5 inches more than the average for righties with similar arm slots.
One heater in particular from Lord’s first big league start, pictured below, caught my attention, a called strike 96.5 MPH fastball to Mookie Betts that rose over 12 inches and ran inside over 20 inches. There are very few fastballs in baseball that can move like Lord’s does, and it’s why he’s been able to get outs for the Nats all year.
This fastball from Brad Lord had over a foot of “rise” and 20 inches of arm side run, and it’s why he’s been one of the most effective pitchers for the Nationals in 2025 (article coming soon ) pic.twitter.com/oTQFJS2e5l
— Paul Cubbage (@PaulCubbage23) August 2, 2025
So what’s next for Lord in his development into a big league starting pitcher? I believe the next step for him should be the development of a third plus pitch, one specifically designed to better get left handed hitters out. Currently, he’s effective against both sides, but better against righties, with righties having a .602 OPS against him and lefties a .695 OPS. This could mean the refinement of his changeup, which he throws just 11.2% of the time currently, but I’d love to see him add a cutter to his arsenal that flashes similar speed but completely different break than his heater currently does. The more solid pitches Lord can add to his arsenal, the more difficult it becomes to time him up and hit him.
Lord is still transitioning back to being a full time starter for the Nats, and I will be interested to see how his stuff plays as he is forced to use more of his arsenal, but so far, I’ve been very impressed from what I’ve seen out of him, and think there’s room for even more growth.
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