FanGraphs released their new ranking of baseball’s top 100 prospects on Tuesday, and like Baseball Prospectus recently, named Detroit Tigers’ shortstop prospect Kevin McGonigle as the top prospect in baseball. The consensus is building.
McGonigle was ranked 54th on FanGraphs preseason rankings, so there’s been a real awakening there. Milwaukee Brewers shortstop prospect Jesus Made, Baltimore Orioles catching prospect Samuel Basallo, Texas Rangers shortstop prospect Sebastian Walcott, and Pittsburgh
Pirates shortstop prospect Konnor Griffin round out their top five in order. Griffin got top prospect billing from Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.
FanGraphs was a bit late to the party as far as McGonigle’s power potential, but as he writes, the young shortstop’s batting practice at the Futures Game changed some minds and turned some heads. Longenhagen also notes that his ability to drive the baseball in the air to the pull field is already very advanced, as recently discussed here at BYB. That argues that he’ll get to every bit of that raw power, particularly because McGonigle is the top pure hitting prospect in the game right now. Combine that with plus power and an approach and swing already geared to drill homers and doubles to the pull field, and you have a hitter who may move very quickly next year into the Tigers’ everyday lineup.
Longenhagen remains less convinced about his defensive future, writing that his arm isn’t a fit at shortstop. It’s certainly stretched at least. When he has time to plant his feet, McGonigle can make all the throws, but he doesn’t really have the juice to fire the ball across the diamond from the hole or make long throws on the move. That may change, but even if it does McGonigle is probably never going to be more than a slightly below average major league shortstop, defensively. Like most, FG expects McGonigle to end up playing mostly at second base.
You can find the complete list and commentary here. It’s well worth a read. I’ve had a personal FanGraphs subscription for a decade now, and every year it’s money very well spent in my opinion. They do great work.
Max Clark is the second ranked Tigers prospect, checking in at ninth overall on FG’s rankings. Notably, Clark does draw a 60 grade just like everyone else above him, with only McGonigle drawing consideration for a 65 grade. Clark’s defensive ability and speed give him a little x-factor despite a profile that suggests only modest power. His pure hitting and on-base ability is probably going to make that a moot point, and if Clark develops into a little more of a power hitter that most expect he could be a star.
Next ranked is catching prospect Josue Briceño at 32nd overall. The 20-year-old Venezuelan product is one of the better power hitting prospects around, though his future behind the plate remains in question. Personally I think he’s even money to make it as a backup catcher, mixing in designated hitter and first base days while the primary catcher handles most of the duty behind the plate. Either way the combination of hit tool and power in this young catcher is going to be a lot of fun to watch develop over the next few years.
Just two spots behind Briceño is fellow catching prospect Thayron Liranzo at 34th. Like Briceño, Liranzo has good plate discipline and better than plus raw power. Briceño is a significantly better pure hitter in my opinion, but many regard Liranzo as more likely to make it as a regular catcher of the two. His good pitch recognition should help alleviate the amount of swing and miss in his game, but he is likely to hit for less average. His power and ability to take his walks should help him be a productive power hitter anyway.
Rounding out the Tigers’ representatives is right-handed starting pitcher Troy Melton, fresh off his second major league start on Monday night at Comerica Park. Melton’s fastball could still use a little shaping to add more ride, but his lower release point, huge extension, and 96-97 mph average on his fourseamer all bank it as a plus fastball. It could get even a little better.
The big improvement for Melton this year is much greater consistency with his plus slider. His cutter, sinker, curveball, and splitter are all more average offerings, but he usually has one or two of them going as change of pace offerings to lefties in particular. It will be interesting to see if the Tigers can develop his stuff a little further. The move from Double-A to the major leagues has come quickly. Tigers director of pitching, Gabe Ribas, and Mud Hens pitching coach Doug Bochtler seemed to have Melton tuned up to a new level after just a handful of starts at the Triple-A level in late June and early July. There may be significant development left ahead of him, with the potential to refine his game into the #2 starter tier.
Longenhagen was the only one to grade Melton a 50 and put him on the preseason top 100, so good on him for being ahead of the curve there. He still has a 50 on Melton, and I might quibble with that after the improvements in his slider and in his command this year, but we’ll see how Melton’s game evolves. He’s now 70th on FG’s list.
The one surprise is shortstop prospect Bryce Rainer. The Tigers 2024 first rounder didn’t make the list, but as FanGraphs didn’t have him as a top 100 guy preseason, his season-ending shoulder surgery cut his progress short without much time to re-evaluate him.
For most, Rainer’s plus raw power with projection remaining, as a slender six-foot-four 19-year-old in his first look at pro ball, was pretty eye-opening. The left-handed hitter is already strong against fastballs and spent the spring hammering a lot of line drives and deep fly balls to the opposite field with authority and numerous exit velocities at 110 mph or better. He did show some struggles with better breaking and offspeed stuff, and with only a short stretch of 35 games to go on, Rainer didn’t really get much of a chance to start adjusting. Even so, he mashed five homers and five doubles with nine stolen bases in that month and change worth of games, posting a 135 wRC+ in his brief debut.
Defensively, Rainer has the foot speed, hands, and certainly the arm strength to be an above average shortstop. Because of his height and build, there are questions about well he’ll handle playing balls on the dirt on the move as he fills out his frame. The right-shoulder dislocation he suffered diving back to first base on a pickoff play also leave questions about whether his plus-plus arm strength will return, and how long it will take to get back to that level assuming it does. Should Rainer not quite develop enough as a shortstop, the obvious backup plan is to move him to third base, where he’ll be good assuming he gets at least most of the arm strength back.
The shoulder injury makes a wait and see approach to Rainer’s future pretty understandable from FanGraphs. Still I am surprised that his good start right out of the gate combined with a lot of strong tools on display didn’t get him somewhere on this list. Maybe there’s a chance that he’ll play in the Arizona Fall League in October, but it doesn’t seem likely. And the injury means that he’ll have maybe 120 minor league games under his belt before his 21st birthday next July. There’s going to be some catching up to do and those factors do complicate the profile for now.
The Tigers currently have the best record in the American League, and they have five or six of the top 100 prospects in baseball, most of them at the Double-A level or in Melton’s case, now learning the ropes in the rotation. It’s worth noting that all but Melton and Briceno were acquired by Scott Harris and his front office. So far, they’re doing a good job in finding and developing talent. There is a bit of weakness brewing beyond the current top crop, but as the scouting and development pipeline the Tigers have built over the last half decade continues to bear fruit, it’s easier to believe that they’ll be able to sustain their success over the long term.
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