After a tough schedule to end the first half, the Phillies get a slight break to start the second when they take on a below .500 Los Angeles Angels team at home. However, they had a similarly underwhelming opponent to start the second half of 2024, and it didn’t matter. They lost the first game out of the break to the Pirates thanks to a blown save by Jose Alvarado that essentially ended his tenure as closer. (We won’t have that problem this year!)
Do the Phillies have a Jose Alvarado problem? Not
ADthe question they wanted to ponder directly out of the All-Star break.https://t.co/ZzApHpRRpC
— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) July 20, 2024
That kicked off a 7-16 stretch which made it look like the season was going off the rails (I’m fairly optimistic, and even I was having my doubts at points), but they thankfully got their act together and played mostly well the rest of the way. (At least until the playoffs.)
In an odd schedule quirk, the Angels are the first of seven straight American League opponents the Phillies will face.
The #Phillies open the 2nd half of the season with 21 straight games against American League clubs.
— Jeff Kerr (@JeffKerrCBS) July 16, 2025
Their next game against a National League team is on August 11.
They’ll go 29 days without playing a team from the National League.
There have been some years where that would have been a death knell, but the Phillies have done well against AL competition in recent seasons, going 28-18 in 2023, 26-20 in 2024, and 11-7 so far this season. The quality of opponent during this AL-exclusive period ranges from very good (Tigers) to good (Yankees, Red Sox) to mediocre (Rangers) to bad (Orioles) to very bad (White Sox). It’s not the easiest stretch ever, but certainly not a season threatening gauntlet either.
As for how the second half of the season will go, I maintain my stance that barring a run of injuries, the Phillies will make the playoffs. The state of their rotation is such that they have the starting pitching advantage most days, and over the length of a 162-game season, that’s going to win you a lot of games.
Here’s how the #Phillies rotation stacks up against NL teams:
— Bob Wankel (@Bob_Wankel) April 16, 2024
2.95 ERA (1st)
1.08 WHIP (1st)
3.41 K/BB% (1st)
.205 Opp BA (1st)
9.41 K/9 (2nd)
3.52 FIP (2nd)
2.0 WAR (1st)pic.twitter.com/QOaHVBsj0N
But it's certainly not a given, largely because their offense has only been good, not great, and the bullpen has been mostly bad. It’s very possible that both of those areas will improve in the second half, and the Phillies are expected to be buyers at the trade deadline. But I’m not expecting for any miracles in that department since none of the names rumored to be available excite me all that much. (I don’t get why people are lusting over Steven Kwan.)
“As long as the Phillies are aiming high - and nobody aims high quite like Dave Dombrowski - perhaps they could take a run at landing both Clase and Steven Kwan from Cleveland.”
— Phillies HR Tracker (@PHI_HR_Tracker) July 10, 2025
- @JeffPassan pic.twitter.com/GxavHR3ORG
It’s been a while (Hunter Pence in 2011?) since the Phillies acquired a real difference maker at the trade deadline. Over the past few years, the Phillies’ return in deadline deals have underwhelmed, and it feels like the vast majority of relievers they’ve acquired in mid-season trades have either mildly disappointed (Ian Kennedy, David Robertson) or been outright disasters (Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree).
I believe if the Phillies are going to improve in the second half, that improvement will largely have to come from within. That said, here are a few predictions for players who will be better or worse in the second half
Better - Jordan Romano
Coming off a season mostly lost to injury, Romano had a horrific start to the season. While he’s been somewhat better since then, his performance has still fluctuated wildly from game to game. He’s shown some flashes of his former All-Star form, and the hope is that the further removed he is from the injury, the more he can string together good outings.
Worse - Jesus Luzardo
Another guy coming off an injury-wrecked season, Luzardo has generally been either very good or very bad in any given start. I’m worried that the large jump in innings from last year has caught up to him, and we might see more of those bad outings the rest of the way.
I much prefer the version of Jesus Luzardo that strikes a lot of guys out to the one that gives up hits to everyone
— Smarty Jones (@TheSmartyJones) June 11, 2025
Better - Bryce Harper
Even when healthy, Harper was not all that great in the first half. We may be past the time when Harper can have a full MVP-caliber season, but as we saw last year, he can still do it for a couple of months at a time. I think he’ll turn it on for the stretch run.
Worse - Kyle Schwarber
After a great start to the season, Schwarber has cooled down. He will still deliver some long balls as we saw in the All-Star Game, but the at bats in between those home runs haven’t been all that great.
Better - Aaron Nola
Aside from a couple of strong outings, Aaron Nola’s first half was largely a wash. He pitched poorly and then missed a lot of time with an ankle injury that somehow morphed into a stress fracture in his ribs. Earlier I speculated that he might come back in a relief role, but with Mick Abel back in the minors, and Andrew Painter not forcing the issue, I think Nola returns to the rotation and looks more like the reliable starter of years past.
Aaron Nola is out on the field throwing between games pic.twitter.com/6hdjTrrq6L
— Luke Arcaini (@ArcainiLuke) July 2, 2025
Worse - Ranger Suarez
After a delayed start to the season, Suarez has been amazing and has arguably been even better than Zack Wheeler. But history shows that Suarez has trouble maintaining greatness for an entire season. Maybe the late start will allow him to sustain this performance all the way through, but I’m worried that he’s been so good that some drop off is inevitable.
Better - J.T. Realmuto
You’d think that a catcher with a heavy workload would wear down over the course of a season, but over the past few years, Realmuto has been better in the second half. There were times in the first half when he looked washed at the plate, but he’s been red hot so far in July, and I expect that will continue.
Prediction
Sometimes we get too close to the team we follow and focus too much on their flaws. To be sure, the Phillies do have flaws, but sometimes we forget that every other team has problems too. The Dodgers are still trying to figure out their bullpen, and they’re dealing with their annual battle of attrition in their rotation. And the Mets have already had one stretch where it looked like they were on the brink of self-destruction.
The Phillies’ rotation likely won’t be quite as good as it was in the first half, but strong performances by Harper and Realmuto will counter that and lead the Phillies to their second straight NL East title.
More from thegoodphight.com:
- The latest odds on where Bryce Harper will land are out. Where are the Phillies?
- Hittin’ Season #219: Which Phillies will NOT be here in 2019?
- FanPost Friday: You can be the Phillies (assistant) GM in the SB Nation Offseason Simulation
- Phillies Stat Notes: Analyzing The Collapse
- Real World: A Phillies Postmortem
- One last mess at McFadden’s
- Are the Phillies trying to lower expectations on free agency?
