The death and rebirth of great defenses

Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The best (and some say only) way to measure a great defense is points allowed, but with the points scored going up regularly, how do you compare defenses from the 70s to defense from the 2020s? The average team scored 17.2 per game in 1977 and 24.8 points per game in 2020. Relative to 1977 that is an increase of 44%. The best way to do compare defenses across eras is to use % points allowed better than average. My definition of elite defense is 20% better than average. There have been 106 elite defenses in the Super

Bowl era (slightly less than 2 per season). The full list is below.

There are six Denver Broncos defenses on the list including the 2024 Bronco D which just made the list.

Plotting how many per year you find that there were plenty in the late 70s (when DBs were allowed to bump receivers until the ball was in the air). Another corollary to this is that there have to be some really terrible defenses to bring the average up. If all defenses are decent or better during a season, the points allowed/scored average is going to be lower than if there are some inept defenses. In 2020 there were three defenses that allowed 30 points per game or more. There have only been 24 defenses that bad in the Super Bowl era.

From 1967 to 1978 there was only one year without three or more elite defenses. Since then we have not had a year with more than three. There were 7 years from 3 from 1979 to 2022, but we have had two years in a row with three elite defenses (the six from the past two seasons are shown below).

From 2012 to 2018 there was exactly one elite defense (2013 Seattle). We were close to having a fourth in 2023. The Bills were 16% better than average in points allowed.

If we call a defense that allows 20% more than average a terrible defense, there have been 136 terrible defenses in the SB Era. The worst stretch was 2010 to 2013, during which there were five or six terrible defenses every season (see below).

There were only two last season (Panthers and Cowboys), but you have to go back to 2006 to find a season without a single terrible defense. We had five as recently as 2022. There were three seasons in a row without one back in the early 90s (92-94). Of course with my definition there have to be some terrible defenses to make the elite defenses register as elite.

It will be interesting to see what happens in 2025. The three elite defense from 2024 appear to be mostly intact from last season. The Bronco defense has added and, at least on paper should be better in 2025 than 2024. The Chargers might slip after losing Asante Samuel Jr and Kristian Fulton to free agency and replacing them with one of the worst starting CBs in the league last season, Donte Jackson, and Cam Hart. The Eagles look to have maintained the core of their defense.

The Chiefs were 4th in points allowed last season, but the core of their defense is getting old and they were more lucky than good last season. They had the worst scoring % allowed of the top defenses (% of drives that end in a score). The good defenses were all roughly 32%, while the Chiefs were at 36.5%. League average was 38.8%. The Panthers were the worst in the league last season allowing 51.4%. KC’s defense last season was also mediocre at forcing turnovers with only 20 on the season. The Vikings and Steelers led the league at 33.

Based on the yearly increase across the league in points scored, we should be somewhere in the mid 23 points in 2025. Meaning that a team that allows 18ish points per game will be elite by my definition (20% better than average).

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