2025 B1G Team Talent Preview: Michigan State

Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Welcome to the 11th part in our series looking at the rosters of every Big Ten team as we head ever closer to opening day.

The order is organized by my team talent rankings. For more information on how those numbers came about, check out the intro for the Maryland post

. And while you’re there, go ahead and read the whole thing then come back. We’ll wait for you.

Past Teams

Tier 5— 18. Maryland Terrapins, 17. Purdue Boilermakers

Tier 4— 16. Iowa Hawkeyes, 15. Minnesota Golden Gophers, 14. Northwestern

Wildcats

Tier 3— 13. UCLA Bruins, 12. Illinois Fighting Ilini, 11. Washington Huskies, 10. Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 9. Indiana Hoosiers

(Names in bold are projected starters by Phil Steele. Otherwise, names are listed in order of scoring in the talent ranking system)

Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.8619 (10th)

Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 886 (7th)

Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 65.7 (11th)

TOTAL OFFENSE- 1,096 (10th)

Quarterback- 164 (9th)

Starter- Aidan Chiles (90)

Reserves- Leo Hannan (38), Alessio Milivojevic (28), Ryland Jessee (17)

Coming into last year it seemed like Aidan Chiles was basically at a similar spot as Demond Williams Jr. is this offseason only if Demond hadn’t gotten the chance to start against Oregon and Louisville. Chiles threw for 8.8 YPA with 4 TDs and 0 INTs getting about one series per game for Oregon State and then followed Coach Smith to be the heir apparent at MSU. He seemed poised to break out. But things went off the rails last year as he finished with the 2nd highest turnover-worthy play rate among P4 quarterbacks and wound up with 7.5 YPA, 13 TDs, and 11 INTs (plus 6 fumbles).

The success in limited sample of his true freshman season makes my model optimistic he can improve off last year’s totals but Chiles probably isn’t making it through an entire season as the starter if he can’t cut back on the interceptions. He’s fortunate though that MSU didn’t make a contingency plan. There are another three 3-star QBs added over the past two recruiting classes to make up the rest of the depth chart and they’ve combined for exactly 2 career snaps so far. It’s Chiles or bust in East Lansing.

Running Back- 96 (17th)

Starter- Elijah Tau-Tolliver (63)

Reserves- Jace Clarizio (46), Bryson Williams (37), Makhi Frazier (26)

This is just about an entirely new running back room as there was a pretty even carry-share between Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter and both are now gone. Last year’s #3 back, Makhi Frazier, returns but only got 7 carries last year as a three-star true freshman. The likely starter is Sacramento State transfer Elijah Tau-Tolliver who has a career YPC of 5.5 and ran for nearly 1,000 yards last year at the FCS level. He’s the only back on the roster who has played more than 40 career snaps. And that’s how you get to be 17th in the conference at the position.

Wide Receiver- 310 (6th)

Starters- Nick Marsh (85), Omari Kelly (79), Chrishon McCray (70)

Reserves- Evan Boyd (58), Alante Brown (54), Braylon Collier (40), Charles Taplin (29)

Jonathan Smith knew they needed to upgrade this position in the portal and it looks like mission accomplished. The numbers 2 through 4 in my talent rankings are all new in the portal from G5 programs Middle Tennessee, Kent State, and Central Michigan. The likely starters are Kelly and McCray who each had 700+ yards last season while Boyd put up 306 yards in 8 games before injury.

None of them will have the responsibility of becoming the top option though because Nick Marsh is coming back as one of the clearest candidates in the Big Ten to become a household name. Marsh was the star of Jonathan Smith’s initial MSU recruiting class and as a four-star true freshman had 649 yards and 3 TDs. He projects as an early NFL draft pick and is preseason 4th team all-conference for Phil Steele.

Tight End- 113 (4th)

Starter- Jack Velling (71)

Reserves- Brennan Parachek (62), Michael Masunas (44), Jayden Savoury (39)

Things worked out okay for Washington missing on Seattle native Jack Velling in the portal last year and getting Keleki Latu instead but he’s still a very good player. Velling followed Coach Smith to East Lansing and had another big receiving year with 411 yards (3rd on the team). Michigan State is able to bring back its top three off the depth chart from last season with Velling returning alongside former four-star Brennan Parachek plus Michael Masunas to make one of the stronger groups in the conference.

Offensive Line- 412 (13th)

Starters- C Matt Gulbin (72), LT Stanton Ramil (69), RT Conner Moore (67), Ashton Lepo (50), RG Luka Vincic (49)

Reserves- Caleb Carter (47), Rakeem Johnson (45), Andrew Dennis (43), Rustin Young (38), Drew Nichols (38), LG Kristian Phillips (25)

(A note that my listed starters here are the 5 highest scorers even if some of them play the same position. If the backup right tackle has a higher rating than the starting left guard, the LG gets bumped to reserves above.)

Michigan State lost a pair of starters off last year’s team who had followed Smith from Corvallis. But they return a few other starters and went heavy in the portal to fortify the ranks. Wake Forest transfer Matt Gulbin started 23 games in the ACC and projects as the starting center. Conner Moore will play LT and played over 1,600 snaps for FCS Montana State. RG Luka Vincic played one extra season at Oregon State without Smith there but now follows him a year later.

Among the returners, former four-star LT Stanton Ramil is back after starting 8 games last year as a redshirt freshman to mixed results. The other projected starter by Phil Steele is LG Kristian Phillips who started one game at that spot last season in backup duty for his first major college action. There’s enough here to project Michigan State to have a decent line but it will take some magic by Coach Michalczik (not out of the question, the guy is a really good O-line coach) to turn this into one of the better lines in the conference.

Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

TOTAL DEFENSE- 1,124 (6th)

Defensive Line- 191 (13th)

Starters- Grady Kelly (67), Jalen Satchell (53)

Reserves- Alex VanSumeren (50), Derrick Simmons (49), Ru’Quan Buckley (44), Ben Roberts (42)

Last year it was a major blow for Michigan State when Derrick Harmon left for Oregon in the spring portal session only to become a 1st round draft pick. There wasn’t a similar level talent this year for MSU to have plucked away. One of last year’s starters, senior Alex VanSumeren, returns but he was roughly replacement level despite his former four-star origins.

Grady Kelly comes in as the only transfer. He started for two years at Colorado State then came off the bench for Florida State before heading to East Lansing this year and should be the other starter. It’s not a disaster of a unit and has some upside but is unlikely to be among the better lines in the conference.

Edge Rushers- 217 (11th)

Starters- Jalen Thompson (87), David Santiago (60)

Reserves- Quindarius Dunnigan (60), Cam Williams (42), Tyler Gillison (38), Isaac Smith (36)

Michigan State was fortunate to be able to bring back Thompson who was a four-star recruit in the class of 2023. He has started 16 games through two seasons in college and sets the edge more than rushes the passer but is still just a good football player.

It’s clear Michigan State didn’t really think they had an answer on the other side and so brought in 5 edge rushers through the portal from Air Force, Georgia State, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, and Hope College. Steele thinks TTU transfer Isaac Smith wins the job after starting 8 games for the Red Raiders in his career but it’s really anyone’s guess after this much turnover in one offseason.

Linebackers- 214 (4th)

Starters- Darius Snow (75), Jordan Hall (75)

Reserves- Wayne Matthews (70), Aisea Moa (58), Charles White (46), Brady Pretzlaff (44)

This projects to be one of the clear strengths of the Michigan State defense with a ton of sure tacklers despite losing both of last year’s starters.

Darius Snow has missed a lot of time due to injuries but got a waiver to come back for a 6th season after making 25 total tackles as a backup last season without a single miss. Jordan Hall is a former four-star and has started 7 games heading into this year when he should get a full-time job. Former Old Dominion transfer Wayne Matthews missed just 2 tackles out of 34 as the other backup linebacker. That trio projects to really help out Michigan State’s run defense.

Cornerbacks- 288 (10th)

Starters- Joshua Eaton (75), NiJhay Burt (69), Chance Rucker (67)

Reserves- Malcolm Bell (62), Jeremiah Hughes (51), Aydan West (42), Andrew Brinson IV (40), Ade Willie (35)

Michigan State prioritized the cornerback spot in the portal with 3 significant additions. The only one that Phil Steele currently expects to start is Joshua Eaton who comes over from Texas State after starting his career as a four-star recruit at Oklahoma. The other two transfers should at least figure as primary backups with NiJhay Burt transferring in from FCS Eastern Illinois and Malcolm Bell from UConn. Both have higher career PFF grades than Eaton but were unrated recruits coming out of high school.

The only returners who have a career start under their belt are the ones that Steele is projecting to begin atop the depth chart. Chance Rucker started 9 games last year and was just barely short of being a four-star recruit in the class of 2023. He has played about twice as many snaps as Ade Willie who has had well below-average PFF grades whenever he has been on the field. There’s a chance he begins the year as a starter due to continuity but would be extremely surprised if he isn’t ultimately passed by one of the transfers.

Safeties- 215 (5th)

Starters- Nikai Martinez (80), Malik Spencer (70)

Reserves- Justin Denson Jr. (66), Tracy Revels (64), Dontavius Nash (62), Devynn Cromwell (49)

There’s no question that this is a strength for the Michigan State defense as both Martinez and Spencer are upperclassmen who have started at least 17 games for the Spartans. Together they make up one of the most experienced starting safety duos in the conference (2nd behind Nebraska). Neither is likely to be all-conference but both are solidly above average starters with a ton of playing time under their belts which should lead to success.

If either should falter though then there’s still good depth behind them. Justin Denson played well in limited opportunities last year as a true freshman. A trio of transfers are also in the mix with Tracy Revels coming from Bowling Green, Dontavius Nash from East Carolina, and Devynn Cromwell from Texas Tech. Nash rates as my top #5 safety in the conference by a wide margin showing that just about no one else has the level of depth at this spot as the Spartans.

OVERALL TEAM- 2,220 (8th)

My big surprise team in last year’s talent rankings was Indiana at #8. The Hoosiers were considered improved under new head coach Curt Cignetti and his legion of followers from James Madison but I saw just about no one else put them in the top half of the conference. They of course went on to show that not only did they belong there, they were underrated by me as well as they wound up 11th in SP+ and made the College Football Playoff.

Now I have Michigan State at 8th. Time to buy Sparty CFP odds at 410-to-1?

Let’s not get quite that carried away. Whether Michigan State can truly take a massive leap forward under Jonathan Smith this season is almost entirely dependent upon Aidan Chiles. A turnover-worthy-play rate of 5.1% just isn’t remotely sustainable for a winning team. He has to look like he did in his limited sample 42 dropbacks at Oregon State as a true freshman and cut that down nearly in half or this entire argument is a non-starter.

If he does find a way to cut out the interceptions though? There’s a clear #1 receiving option in Nick Marsh and one of the better tight ends in the conference with Jack Velling. Weapons to throw to won’t be an issue. The #13 ranked offensive line isn’t ideal but they’re far enough ahead of the bottom that it doesn’t take much to imagine them getting to roughly average in the conference. That combined with fewer turnovers projects as a legitimately good offense after finishing 119th in SP+ on that side of the ball last year. Again...if there are fewer turnovers.

Pair that with what looks to be a completely remade defense and the bones are there. Michigan State added 8 players on that side of the ball through the transfer portal this offseason that I have projected to be at least heavy rotation players. This was already a top-50 unit last season that looked worse because it had to defend a lot of short fields due to the turnover issues.

If Michigan State truly is one of the 8 best teams in the conference then they have a schedule that is set up to potentially make some noise. They don’t have to play either Ohio State or Oregon and get both Penn State and Michigan at home. Road trips to USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, and Iowa are admittedly daunting. But again, if we start with the assumption that MSU is actually pretty good then it’s possible to imagine a 3-2 split with one point spread upset in there. Put it all together and you could talk me into a surprise season where they finish 8-4 and make a solid bowl game.

The alternative is that Chiles doesn’t figure out how to cut out the turnovers and Michigan State still has a bad passing offense even if they are capable of occasionally hitting big plays. In that world, it’s tough to see them winning more than one of those road games and combined with home losses to Penn State and Michigan it leads to yet another season without a bowl game. I’ll put the most likely scenario in the middle at 6-6 with one of the wider ranges between floor and ceiling in the conference.

*************************

Top-10 Players (with position rank and overall conference rank)

1. QB Aidan Chiles, 90 (5th, 25th)
2. ED Jalen Thompson, 87 (7th, 48th)
3. WR Nick Marsh, 85 (7th, 60th)
4. S Nikai Martinez, 80 (13th, 94th)
5. WR Omari Kelly*, 79 (17th, 98th)
6. LB Darius Snow, 75 (10th, 129th)
7. LB Jordan Hall, 75 (11th, 131st)
8. CB Joshua Eaton*, 75 (19th, 133rd)
9. OL Matt Gulbin*, 72 (22nd, 174th)
10. TE Jack Velling, 71 (6th, 185th)

*Incoming transfer

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