Every year at around this time, the first 53-man roster projections pop up. And (almost) every year we dutifully chronicle those first roster projections. I usually preface these summaries with an introduction like this:
“Not to be a killjoy here, but if the past 15 years or so that I’ve been intensely following the Dallas Cowboys training camp have taught me anything, it’s that rosters are largely set before the offseason program even begins, and most of the extra players brought in are little more
ADthan sparring and training partners for the roster locks.
That is the stark reality of NFL life.
Injuries and standout performances in camp provide the opportunity for maybe a handful of players each year to work their way onto the roster, but that’s pretty much it.”
That sure sounds nice and sufficiently nonchalant to perhaps even appear insightful, but is that actually true?
To find out, I took a look at the roster projections summaries published in July of 2024 and July of 2023.
To my surprise, the panelists we assembled in 2023 (Dave Helman of Foxsports, Todd Archer of ESPN, Jon Machota of The Athletic, and Dan Rogers of Blogging The Boys) averaged just 44 players in their projections that would end up on the Week 1 roster that year. And the panelists in 2024 (Todd Archer, Jon Machota, and Mike Fisher of Cowboys Nation) came in even lower with an average of 43 players. Here’s a quick summary of the results of each of the seven panelists:
| Helman Foxports 2023 | Archer ESPN 2023 | Machota Athletic 2023 | Rogers BtB 2023 | Archer ESPN 2024 | Machota Athletic 2024 | Fisher Cowboys Nation 2024 | |
| Roster Projection "Hits" | 45 | 44 | 44 | 43 | 42 | 44 | 43 |
There were, of course, differences in each projection that resulted in the different number of hits. For example - and you may find this hard to believe today - in 2023, then-rookie Brandon Aubrey was heading into a training camp battle with another kicker named Tristan Vizcaino, and one of our panelists picked Vizcaino over Aubrey.
But what is interesting is that in both years, eight players made the Week 1 roster that did not show up on any of the July projections. Some of them are obvious, like players acquired via trade of free agency after the start of training camp, others perhaps less so, like former late-round picks or UDFAs that either benefited from an injury to a player at the same position or played themselves onto the roster with a good training camp performance. Here’s an overview of those players and how they came to join the roster:
| Source | How acquired | 2023 | 2024 |
| External | Trade | Noah Igbinoghene | Jordan Phillips |
| Trey Lance | Andrew Booth | ||
| Free agent | - - | Linval Joseph | |
| - - | Nick Vigil | ||
| PS signing | - - | Buddy Johnson | |
| Internal | Draft Pick | Jalen Brooks (7th, rookie) | Israel Mukuamu (6th) |
| - - | Matt Waletzko (5th) | ||
| UDFA | Juanyeh Thomas | Tyrus Wheat | |
| Rico Dowdle | - - | ||
| Hunter Luepke (Rookie) | - - | ||
| T.J. Bass (Rookie) | - - | ||
| Brock Hoffmann | - - |
So now we know that rosters might not be quite as set as they may appear; the Cowboys can still bring in new players, and there may be down-roster players who’ll play themselves onto a spot on the 53-mn roster. Keep that in mind as you review the dueling roster projections by Jon Machota of The Athletic and Joseph Hoyt of the DMN below.
| Machota The Athletic | Hoyt DMN | |
| Quarterbacks | Prescott | Prescott |
| Milton | Milton | |
| Running Backs | Williams | Williams |
| Sanders | Sanders | |
| Blue | Blue | |
| Mafah | ||
| Luepke | Luepke | |
| Wide Receivers | Lamb | Lamb |
| Pickens | Pickens | |
| Tolbert | Tolbert | |
| Turpin | Turpin | |
| Mingo | Mingo | |
| Brooks | ||
| Tight Ends | Ferguson | Ferguson |
| Schoonmaker | Schoonmaker | |
| Spann-Ford | Spann-Ford | |
| Offensive Line | Guyton | Guyton |
| T. Smith | T. Smith | |
| Beebe | Beebe | |
| Booker | Booker | |
| Steele | Steele | |
| Hoffman | Hoffmann | |
| Richards | Richards | |
| Thomas | Thomas | |
| Jones | Bass | |
| Cornelius |
Machota and Hoyt are largely aligned on offense, with some differences on the number of players the Cowboys will carry at WR, RB, and OL. Is this the chance for downroster guys like Ryan Flournoy or maybe John Stevens to make a push for a roster spot?
Not a lot of surprises on defense either:
| Machota The Athletic | Hoyt DMN | |
| Defensive Ends | Parsons | Parsons |
| Fowler | Fowler | |
| Williams | Williams | |
| Kneeland | Kneeland | |
| Ezeiruaku | Ezeiruaku | |
| Turner | Turner | |
| Defensive Tackles | Odighizuwa | Odighizuwa |
| Solomon | Solomon | |
| M. Smith | M. Smith | |
| Toia | Toia | |
| Linebackers | Liufau | Liufau |
| Murray | Murray | |
| Sanborn | Sanborn | |
| James | James | |
| D. Clark | Johnson | |
| Cornerbacks | Bland | Bland |
| Elam | Elam | |
| Revel | Revel | |
| Carson | Carson | |
| Mukuamu | Mukuamu | |
| *CB not on roster | Goodwin | |
| Safeties | Hooker | Hooker |
| D. Wilson | D. Wilson | |
| Bell | Bell | |
| J. Thomas | J. Thomas | |
| A. Clark | ||
| Specialists | Aubrey (K) | Aubrey (K) |
| Anger (P) | Anger (P) | |
| Sieg (LS) | Sieg (LS) |
As far as projections go, these two have probably summarized the general sentiment about the roster pretty well at this point of the offseason.
Suspensions (knock on wood), trades, injuries (knock on wood three times), and other things of that nature (knock on wood vigorously) tend to disrupt these projections. But that’s also where depth guys then get to step up and seize their opportunity.
What’s your take on the two projections above, and where do you think they got it wrong?
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