There are babies who were born after the last SEC National Championship who are now able to drive cars. Sure, they’re battery-powered cars driven by two year-olds, but still. The Big 10 winning each of the last two National Championships is probably the second worst thing to ever happen to the South.
That’s not to say the SEC is bad. In fact, they were almost certainly the best conference in CFB last year. They had five of the top 10 teams, eight of the top 15, 10 of the top 20. Other than Mississippi
State, the other 15 teams all ranked 45th or better by SP+. Certainly, the SEC will put multiple teams in the CFP, probably three or more. Who will be those three, and who will ultimately take home the SEC Championship?
Texas
The AP pre-season #1 team was a CFP semi-finalist who returns a lot of talent on defense and a big name QB. However, that QB- Arch Manning- is a big name because of what his uncles did rather than what he has done so far. Maybe he will be great from the start, but if he’s not, they will really have to lean on Pete Kwiatkowsi’s outstanding defense. In the early-‘00s, the Oakland A’s played above what their payroll budget would predict by embracing analytics before the rest of the league. Analysts asked what would happen if a rich team used the same approach- Moneyball with money. Coach K’s defenses remind me of that notion. At Boise St, he build great defenses with good players. At UW, he built some of the best defenses in the country with great players. At Texas, he has many of the best defenders in the country and, indeed, he has scaled up the results. Texas’s defense last year was terrifying and it could be even better this year. Will it be good enough to carry a young QB through his inevitable ups and downs, no matter how famous his family is?
Alabama
If the 2024 Alabama team had Michael Penix at QB instead of Jalen Milroe, I think they would’ve won the National Championship in Kalen DeBoer’s first year in Tuscaloosa. That’s not to say that Milroe is a dud- he’s excellent-, but he is the opposite of the sort of computer-brained slinger DeBoer favors. This year’s QB, Ty Simpson, does not have Penix’s defense-slicing analytical abilities, but trends more in that direction than Milroe did. Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard stack up against any receiver duo in the country and we know how Ryan Grubb can call plays with multiple talented receiving options. The defense was good at everything last year and brings back almost 70% of its production. Simpson is a question. DeBoer counts as one, too, after losing four games in his first season. Every team has question marks, and Bama’s look less scary to me than most others.
Georgia
Georgia looked like the best team in the country for big stretches of last season, so it almost feels disrespectful to list them third in the preview order. They beat Texas twice, Clemson, and Tennessee, but lost to Alabama, Ole Miss, and Notre Dame in the National Quarterfinal. The offense disappeared in each of those last two games, scoring only 10 points in each loss. QB Carson Beck left to go to Miami as part of an exodus that leaves Georgia with the least returning production in the conference. In spite of all of that, SP+ projects Georgia to be #4 in the country and just a hair behind Alabama as the top team in the SEC. How is that possible? Their QB fallback plan, Gunner Stockton, was a high four-star recruit who has now had three years to learn the system without a transfer or coaching change. They have a list of crazy athletic playmakers that is too long to recite, but starts with Nate Frazier and Zachariah Branch, who are both freakishly fast. Even in last season’s “down” year, the defense was top-10 nationally and Smart is unlikely to abide any slippage there.
The Field
The SEC is probably the only conference where “The Field” could produce the National Champion… It’s hard to say that Brian Kelly has failed at LSU, but it’s also hard to say he has fully succeeded. If the defense returns to form, Garrett Nussmeier is good enough to lead the Tigers to the CFP… Ole Miss finished as the top SEC team in SP+ in 2024, which is shocking to me, even though the team was outstanding for most of the season. Their roster turns over A LOT, but Lane Kiffin mines the Transfer Portal better than almost anyone… Texas A&M is the other team who might have the firepower to challenge at the top of the conference with a great coach (Mike Elko) and a rising star QB (Marcel Reed) to go with their usual canyon-deep roster of blue chippers… Tennessee, Missouri, Florida, and South Carolina would all have a shot at winning the ACC or Big 12, but will likely be on the outside looking in here.
The Verdict
I’m not going to defend the way Kalen DeBoer left Seattle, but I’m also not going to lie about how great he was while he was here. I think the surprising losses to Vandy and Oklahoma last year were part of his growing pains, and the number of close games he coaches means that breaks will go against him at some point. Still, I think the QB situation will work out more to his liking this year and the offense will carry the team to the conference title, where they will beat old nemesis LSU, who holds together slightly better with a more experienced QB.
