Hey, bud. It's ok. The Guardians are not a good team this year. It's all right.
In my day job, it's sometimes my job to help people through the grief process. You may be still in denial about the Guardians' season. "Their strength of schedule is so weak, they COULD really make a run at the third wildcard! And, if you get in, anything can happen! Plus, Detroit lost like 12 of 14!"
Friend, pal, champ... stop doing this to yourself.
Since 1995, no team has won the World Series who had a negative run differential
on July 27th. Only one of those teams even had a losing record on July 27th - the 2021 Braves - and the Braves still had a run differential of 40+ at the time. General guideline: by the 81 game mark, you are what your run differential says you are. By game 106, this is a firm guideline.
The Guardians are not going to break their 77 year World Series title drought this year. Jose Ramirez will likely again put up a 6 win season and not get a chance to exorcise any playoff demons plaguing him. Shane Bieber may come back and pitch like an ace, who knows? It won't be enough. The team has a wRC+ of 87. You saw them in the ALCS last year... you know they were about two bats short of truly being able to beat the Yankees... and they are about 20% WORSE at hitting this year.
I am not calling for anyone to be fired. Stephen Vogt's platoons frustrate me, but I understand why he wants Carlos Santana to play first and has to get David Fry some reps to try to get back to form. I don't agree, but I understand. I still think he is generally very good at handling pitchers (wild exception having Clase warm up today after pitching twice yesterday, what the HECK?!?!). He just doesn’t have the horses.
I am not even calling for Chris Antonetti or Mike Chernoff's heads. I thought Nolan Jones was a great late spring gamble. I thought Santana probably could hang around 100 wRC+ and 120 vs LHP. I don't think, aside from Paul Sewald, they made bad gambles and their trades for Luis Ortiz and Slade Cecconi were great (Ortiz being in trouble for a gambling scandal is simply bad luck, pun intended). A ton of injuries to top prospects have made things harder than they needed to be. I trust them to figure things out, still.
So, this isn’t an angry fan lashing out. I am still really looking forward to the rest of this season and I just renewed my season tickets for 2026. I want the Guardians to win every game they play. But I am here to tell you, gently but firmly, they are not going to win their last game this year.
Get mad. Get sad. Mope. Do whatever feels right (without hurting yourself or others, of course). But, it's time to admit the facts, folks. There is absolutely no chance the Guardians are going to win the World Series in 2025.
With that in mind, we should hope the Guardians front office is thoroughly exploring the trade market to see if anyone is willing to offer a notable overpay for Steven Kwan or Emmanuel Clase, or, alternatively from Clase, another relief arm. They should almost definitely try to trade Shane Bieber, as I assume some team desperate for someone with the potential to be a front of rotation starter will beat the value that the Guardians could get with the Comp A pick they might get if he walks. If Bieber shows any indication of wanting to stay or if the team wants to revive extension talks, then, by all means, keep the Biebs. But, I find that extremely unlikely.
I know we hate waiting for next year, but it's time to start that process again. "What can we do now to make winning a title in 2026 possible?" is the only question the franchise needs to answer from now until things wind to a close at the end of September.
Like you, I despise the people that this column makes look "right." People who doubted this team from day one, or who ridiculed others for believing in them, or people who think the organization needs a full house cleaning. I have a lot of bookmarks and screenshots I will have to erase. But that's ok. Pride will still be their fall. Someday. Just not today.
Still plenty of baseball to enjoy and plenty of winning baseball ahead too. They'll probably end up 83-79. That's 30 more happy days ahead for us. Plus, the joy of seeing Jose play baseball, Slade Cecconi pitch, and Brayan Rocchio run the bases like a gazelle with two broken wagon wheels for back legs. How can you ask for more?
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