The modern game of football was supposed to be “easier than ever” for quarterbacks because of more rules that favor them, fewer hits, and easier passing concepts. Just a year ago, Troy Aikman said 40 would be “the new norm” for quarterbacks. Tom Brady won two Super Bowls in his 40s, Peyton Manning won one just before his 40th birthday, Drew Brees was still competing over 70% of his passes after 40, and Aaron Rodgers was destined to be the next, right?
Wrong.
Just a few years after Brady’s retirement,
the premise that “quarterbacks are aging gracefully” and that “all of the good ones will be able to play until they are 40” is fading away faster than Russell Wilson’s career. Just have a look at 2025’s probable Week 1 starters:
- Aaron Rodgers is the only QB older than Matthew Stafford to be guaranteed a job, if healthy
- Joe Flacco is in a competition against three other (much younger) quarterbacks
- Stafford is the third-oldest starter in the NFL
- The only two close to him are Wilson and Kirk Cousins, the latter of whom has a much better chance of starting for another team than ever playing for the Falcons again
By these marks, it may not be long before the oldest starters in the NFL are Stafford, who is 37, and Geno Smith, who turns 35 in October. Not so coincidentally, the Las Vegas Raiders tried to trade for the former and when that failed they ended up trading for the latter.
Now here we sit not even a week into training camp and the second-oldest starter in the league is being rested on a “week to week” basis per Sean McVay because of a sore back. Not exactly the ringing endorsement of mid-30s quarterbacks that Aikman was talking about last year when he was referring to the overtly-safe nature of the position.
Tom Brady's comment on Seahawks QB Geno Smith from a (2022) press conference in Germany.
— Vegas Sports Today (@VegasSportsTD) March 8, 2025
"He's making great decisions, passing the football very well to open receivers, and hasn't had many turnovers. He has enough athletic ability to extend some plays."
(Via @Buccaneers)… pic.twitter.com/o0Su9QfC8s
35 is not 40. It’s as far from 40 as it is from 30. And there aren’t even that many quarterbacks who are 30!
How quickly they fall!
So 2023 was the first year without Brady and the passing of the 40+ torch to Aaron Rodgers was an immediate failure. Look at how quickly all the over-30 quarterbacks started to drop like flies once Brady retired:
- Rodgers, turned 40 in 2023 and missed the entire season; is entering his farewell season for the Steelers at age 42, by most accounts
- Wilson, turned 35 in 2023, was released by the Broncos, signed by the Steelers in 2024, and is now on his third team since turning 35
- Cousins, turned 35 in 2023, the Vikings let him walk after 2024, signed with the Falcons, benched in December for Michael Penix, looking for another opportunity but no teams want to trade for his contract
- Ryan Tannehill, turned 35 in 2023, benched by the Titans midseason, has not been able to find work since then
- Geno Smith, turned 33 in 2023, has not replicated the same success he had in 2022, traded to the Raiders in 2025
- Derek Carr, turned 32 in 2023, was let go by the Raiders that offseason, signed with the Saints and just retired a few months ago
- Jimmy Garoppolo, turned 32 in 2023, signed by Raiders to replace Carr, was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL that year, is now backing up Stafford
- Dak Prescott, turned 30 in 2023, led the NFL in touchdown passes that year, but struggled mightily in 2024 and missed nine games
The only over-30 starting quarterback in 2023 who I did not mention is Stafford. He is by far the greatest success story of any over-30 quarterback right now. And what is that “success” exactly?
Stafford’s numbers have dropped significantly since winning the Super Bowl in 2021. He was a magnet for health problems in 2022. He continues to prove that he’s extremely talented, but can he stay on the field? Can he will an offense to score points when something goes wrong? Now he’s 37. Can the Rams really expect him to still be in the league when he’s 39? Or even 38?
There isn’t a lot of good external evidence out there that he can despite a narrative that “ah, now quarterbacks play until they’re 40s!”
As you can see, there’s not even good evidence out there that many quarterbacks can play into their 30s.
Current 30+ starting QBs
These are the over-30 quarterbacks expected to be Week 1 starters:
- Aaron Rodgers, 42
- Matthew Stafford, 37 (hurt)
- Russell Wilson, 37 (in a competition)
- Geno Smith, 35
- Dak Prescott, 32 (returning from injury)
- Jared Goff, 31
- Patrick Mahomes, 30
- Baker Mayfield, 30
That’s eight quarterbacks, so one-fourth of the NFL’s expected starters. If Flacco wins the job in Cleveland, that’s nine. It almost seems like that’s a high number, but we all sort of agree that it’s not a high number at all, right? It means that actually 75% of the NFL’s starting quarterbacks, including most of the ones we think of as “elite”, are under 30.
And that’s only EXPECTED WEEK 1 starters.
How long will it take Jaxson Dart to replace Wilson?
What if Rodgers is terrible?
What if Stafford’s injury problems cause him to miss regular season games?
What if Geno doesn’t take well to his new surroundings?
#Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart had “by far” his best practice of training camp today, according to @art_stapleton
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) July 27, 2025
He’s coming along nicely this summer. pic.twitter.com/V8jnUHvPaY
It takes very little to chop this number in half, which essentially means that they best half of his list is made of quarterbacks who are BARELY 30. Mahomes being 30 is not a big deal. But Carson Wentz being 32 essentially ended his career. Jameis Winston is 31 and nobody thinks of him as a starter. Deshaun Watson is 30 and doesn’t seem to have a future in the NFL. 30 is young for Patrick Mahomes, but 28 is old as shit for Daniel Jones.
At one point or another, any of these “aging out of the league” quarterbacks were considered QBOTFs for a franchise. Maybe it took an injury, a bad season, or just a bad month, but all of them washed out a lot faster than most of us predicted when they were 25.
What makes any of us so certain that a Kyler Murray, a Brock Purdy, a Jalen Hurts, a Justin Herbert, or even a Lamar Jackson take so well to turning 30?
Actually, we can probably start doubting plenty of starting quarterbacks in their 20s from being probable starters in their 30s. For instance, Tua Tagovailoa. Is Tua going to play in the NFL when he’s 35? I don’t know anyone who believes that.
The reality of “Who will be the best quarterbacks in 5 years” is that we will probably still have Mahomes, but we probably won’t have Goff, Dak, or Mayfield. We may not have Trevor Lawrence, Lamar, Hurts, or Jordan Love.
The best quarterbacks in 2030 are probably quarterbacks who have yet to turn 25. Jayden Daniels. C.J. Stroud. Drake Maye. Someone just starting his college career right now.
We may have already witnessed the last good season of certain quarterbacks who don’t seem old now but will age five years in the next 18 months. The fact that Stafford is even entering a training cap as a team’s starter at age 37 is in itself remarkable and far more remarkable than the conversation people were having towards the end of Brady’s career that “QBs will play into their late 30s and early 40s now!”
That may only happen to one out of 50 starting quarterbacks.
Stafford would have to play four more seasons just to get to 40. Here we are in late July and fans are just hoping that he can play for four more months.
Pump the brakes on 40. We need to do more work on 32.
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