Hello, all. I hope your weeks are off to a good start.
We’re getting closer and closer to the start of the season, as fall camp kicks off later this week. As such, predictions are starting to roll in about the season. Let’s check some of those out!
1) ESPN’s Bill Connelly, he of the SP+ ratings, has Miami high in the conference.
Second, to be exact. He has Miami as one of four teams in the tier of CFP and conference title contenders. The other teams include Clemson, SMU, and Louisville.
Connelly had
an interesting and very fair critique of Mario Cristobal to lead off the section about Miami:
I just can’t get past it. Trailing by seven points and facing a fourth-and-goal from the Syracuse 10 with under four minutes remaining, Cristobal took the ball out of No. 1 pick Cam Ward’s hands and elected to kick a field goal, hoping that his defense, which had given up touchdowns in four of five possessions and had no-showed for most of the previous two months, could make one last stop. It was painfully obvious that it wouldn’t. And it didn’t. Ward didn’t touch the ball again, and Miami fell 42-38, its ACC title and CFP hopes going by the wayside.
This wasn’t nearly the most disastrous game-management decision that Cristobal has made since taking over at The U in 2022, but it once again crystallized the contradictions inherent in the Cristobal experience. He’s going to recruit like gangbusters, he’s going to field an increasingly talented team, and when it’s winning time, he’s going to make a grave miscalculation.
Still, after a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. At some point, with the right combination of talent and quarterback play, your own game management issues can cease to be part of the equation. (Remember when we thought Andy Reid was a horrible game manager?)
I do recall the outrage over that, but Miami’s defense, even if they had tied it, was absolutely going to allow Syracuse to go back down the field and score, so I can’t say that Cristobal’s gaffe cost Miami the game the way it did in the 2023 Georgia Tech game, as Connelly referenced.
2) Still, Connelly’s argument does beg the question of whether Cristobal can build a roster that’s good enough on both sides of the ball to overcome lackluster in game management. And I have my doubts about this year, in an area that Connelly acknowledges.
Connelly would go on, after analyzing the offense and defense, to summarize with a concern that’s hard to argue with after the way the offseason went down.
I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.
I think I agree with him here, and it’s a damned shame that this year’s group of coaches and players wasn’t around last year to go with, in my opinion, an offense that’s up there with any this school has ever had. I think the secondary is going to be substantially improved in 2025. Hell, how could it not be with the way it looked like random students were yanked from Coral Gables, put in pads, and trotted onto the field for the majority of last season?
But will it be a 2024 Georgia 2.0 problem for Beck with his pass catchers? You all know the roster losses; I don’t have to go down that road again. I do worry about there being enough horses left in the barn to take this team to where it needs to be in 2025. If Jojo Trader and others emerge as legit capable options, I think this team is an ACC title contender, at least. But I don’t know if those horses are ponies or thoroughbreds at this point.
3) Add ESPN analyst Greg McElroy to the list of those who see the Canes as a contender in 2025.
McElroy has Miami in his tier of teams that can contend for and win the national title, and to that I say......uh.....pump thine brakeths, Gregorio.
“Yes, I include Miami in Tier One, and a lot of people might push back on that,” McElroy said. “‘Well, Miami can make the playoff, but can they win the national championship?’ I am a believer. I look at where this team has gone the last couple of years, where they’re progressed the last couple of years, and I happen to think this could be maybe best year in Mario Cristobal’s tenure up to this point.”
McElroy goes on to say that Beck got way too much blame for what went on at Georgia last year and is still a top-notch quarterback. He praised both offensive and defensive lines. But he lost me when he talked about the wide receivers being up and down at times and there being a chance for the current group to take a big step forward in the passing game in 2025. Not a chance in hell of that in my honest opinion
But, in my opinion, the WR room and passing attack don’t have to be like 2024 or better. They just have to pull their own weight like every other group on the team. Because if one group or unit doesn’t - aka the secondary last year - that’s all it takes to wreck a season.
Go Canes!
