Admittedly, we talked about this before particularly as it pertained to John Metchie. So, I cannot in good conscience come out and completely lambast two players that are trying and not succeeding. This is about your Houston Texans
and what they end up doing moving forward. How do they respond when someone is selected high in the draft and doesn’t end up working out?We can start with Juice Scruggs. The Texans traded up to the 62nd pick with the Philadelphia Eagles to select Scruggs in 2023 draft.
Scruggs draft profile indicates that he had a scouting score of 6.21. That corresponds with an eventual solid NFL starter. So, the Texans thought he would be a solid starter and so did the rest of the scouts from the other 31 teams.
Would they have made him a second round pick? There is some conjecture at the time that teams around the NFL considered that to be a bit of an overpay. Of course, scouting is in the eye of the beholder, but Scruggs spent the first two seasons mostly on the sidelines with injuries and ineffective performance. He is not a part of the first team on the depth chart so far in camp.
Blake Fisher’s draft profile is actually pretty similar to Scruggs. He graded out with a 6.26 grade which is almost identical to Scruggs. That also puts him in the eventual average NFL starter category. Since he was picked in the 2024 draft, the word “eventual” is doing some heavy lifting there. When exactly is that supposed to happen?
I think most people would look at his rookie season and simply write it off as a player getting his feet wet and learning on the job. He noticeably struggled at right tackle and that was particularly true in the divisional playoff game against the Kansas City Chiefs, but most fans and analysts alike thought with an offseason workout program and a second training camp he could develop into an average starter. He was taken with the 59th pick in the draft which is also almost identical to Scruggs.
One of the greatest measures of most organizations in all of sports is what you do when you are wrong. Mistakes happen all the time. Sometimes you are torpedoed by bad luck like you were in the Metchie case. Sometimes you just flat out miss like you did with Kenyon Green. Dealing with mistakes at any level is often about the fallacy of sunken costs. The sunken costs fallacy can be defined as, “our tendency to follow through with something that we’ve already invested heavily in (be it time, money, effort, or emotional energy), even when giving up is clearly a better idea.”
Of course, the biggest question is when is it prudent to give up? The Kenyon Green scenario played out differently. For one, it was a three year investment. Scruggs still has one more season to go and Fisher has two. Secondly, a part of Green’s failure was his inability to develop an acceptable level of consistent professionalism. No one has accused Scruggs or Fisher of that charge.
The easy answer is that Fisher gets more time than Scruggs. This is probably a make or break year for Scruggs. If he doesn’t break the lineup and perform adequately then he is probably done as a Houston Texan. Fisher probably has another season to develop, but this is where the fallacy of sunken cost comes in. Cam Robinson signed a one year deal. Do they feel comfortable just handing the 2026 right or left tackle job to Fisher? We saw them run this game with Green and it ended in disaster.
This is a unique problem to football. A baseball team could send such players down to the minors. An NBA team has the NBADL where they can stash prospects that are promising but not quite ready for prime time. In the NFL you have to be rostered or you risk getting plucked by another team. The practice squad is a calculated risk for that reason.
At the same time, each of those 53 spots is a valuable commodity. DeMeco Ryans needs 53 guys that can suit up and help the team win. On Sunday, 47 of those guys are needed to bring home a victory. Are Fisher and Scruggs legitimately one of those 47 guys? Ryans has already said that he plans on carrying nine linemen. That means probably two extra tackles and two interior lineman. Scruggs would be on the interior and Fisher on the outside. Are they legitimately the best substitutes right now?
That sunken cost fallacy includes an emotional consideration. You like these guys. You work with them everyday and if you see legitimate effort you want them to succeed. There is also the emotional toll of admitting that you picked the wrong guy. In accordance with my last piece on the wide receivers, I want to reiterate that this is neither Scruggs nor Fisher’s fault. They are doing the best they can.
The decision to roster them might not seem like a big deal. However, given the physical and violent play in the NFL, it seems reasonable to assume that at least one of them could get extensive time at one point this season. Both did last season. If someone else currently in camp is actually better than them, it could be worth a game or two in the standings. What happens if you go from nine wins to ten wins? Or ten wins to 11 wins? It could be the difference between winning the division and not winning the division.
How teams handle these kinds of decisions can help shape how successful they will ultimately be. I’m not in camp every day, so I cannot definitively answer that question for them. It shouldn’t be up to a fan poll anyway. Only they can see whether either player really can get better and be a serviceable starter in the league. It hasn’t happened yet, but that doesn’t mean it will never happen.
More from battleredblog.com:
- Film Review: Dameon Pierce’s Thrashing of The Georgia Bulldogs
- What If? 2009 Houston Texans: 4 Games Decided By 4 Plays
- The Value of Things: All About Kickers Part II
- USFL Set to Return For Second Season
- Happy Independence Day from Battle Red Blog!
- PFF: One Free Agent Acquisition For The Houston Texans Before Training Camp
- Houston Texans News: July 1, 2022
