Poirier Vs. Holloway 3 Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight rivals Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway will throw down for the final time TONIGHT (Sat., July 19, 2025) at UFC 318 inside Smooth King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana.

This overall weak pay-per-view (PPV) main card is built around Poirier. “The Diamond” deserves all the love after well over a decade of putting on elite all-time brawls inside the Octagon. Undisputed champion or not, Poirier has more than earned his flowers and the chance to put on one

last performance in front of his home crowd.

Oh yeah, and the BMF belt is on the line too, I guess.

Holloway is a fitting last dance partner. The two have met twice in their prestigious careers already at very different points, but much to the Hawaiian’s chagrin, he’s winless in the rivalry so far. There are easy excuses to make — age and size, namely — but none can apply here, as the former Featherweight king is 33 years old and fully focused on moving to 155 pounds permanently.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Poirier vs. Holloway 3 Betting Odds

• Dustin Poirier victory: +120
• Dustin Poirier via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
• Dustin Poirier via submission: +1100
• Dustin Poirier via decision: +350
• Max Holloway victory: -142
• Max Holloway via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
• Max Holloway via submission: +2000
• Max Holloway via decision: +140
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Poirier Wins

You do not want to brawl with Poirier. The man has monstrous power in both hands, a rock-solid chin and a deep will to win that endures in the championship rounds. He’s also got an excellent boxing and an underrated ground game, but those traits won’t be remembered to quite the same extent as Poirier’s pure grit.

It feels inappropriate to advise Poirier on how to beat Holloway, seeing as he’s done it twice! With that context in mind, Poirier can’t forget what worked in the rematch. He did really well establishing his left hand and forcing Holloway to respect his power, which helped him open up with power kicks. No boxer likes getting kicked in the leg, and Holloway certainly isn’t an exception.

Poirier should be looking to draw Holloway into counters here. The Hawaiian does great work with his jab generally, but Poirier’s Southpaw stance and lead hand can help mitigate that weapon. He can force Holloway to come to him, at which point Poirier’s counter combinations are likely to find the mark.

Nobody can match Holloway’s pure volume, but Poirier has the power to make his connections count more.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

How Holloway Wins

Holloway has built a strong argument for his “best boxer in the UFC” claim. He moves so fluidly from both stances, and he’s equally potent on the front and back foot. Nearly impossible to take down, Holloway has taken apart countless top fighters on the strength of his combinations and volume.

It is imperative that Holloway gets the jab going here, but as mentioned, Poirier is going to be trying to shut that down. The solution is a real focus on feinting and winning the hand fight. Holloway has to have other options if Poirier is reaching out to control his jab, like hitting the body with a right hook or quick teep.

If Holloway can get his jab going, the rest of his game really opens up.

In this match up, I would also like to see more right kicks. Remember when he blasted kicks into the open side of Anthony Pettis and crumbled the former champion? It’s time to bring that approach to open stance fight back into his arsenal. Poirier’s boxing-style defense gave him a lot of trouble, but the right body/right head kick double threat is an effective solution — ask Justin Gaethje.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Poirier vs. Holloway 3 Prediction

Poirier via guillotine in the first 30 seconds, LOCK IT IN!

On a more serious note, these guys are always going to be fairly evenly matched at most any point of their careers. They’re both top-class MMA boxers. The first two fights were fun, and I would expect nothing different here.

The primary difference is age. Holloway is no spring chicken, but he hasn’t been through as many surgeries as Poirier. If we look at their recent work, Holloway’s showing versus Gaethje at UFC 300 was the single best performance between them. That fight showed that he can be an elite Lightweight in a victory, and I can’t say the same about any of Poirier’s recent showings.

The bout will be competitive and violent, but Holloway controls the flow enough to sway the judges.

Prediction: Holloway via decision

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 318 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:15 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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