It’s the final day of July and nobody expects Fiorentina to have every question answered yet, but the first team picture is taking shape. Between the friendlies and the training sessions, our most pressing questions are being answered. There’s a lot of fluidity—the idea of a “first XI” hasn’t really existed for decades—and we’re going to see at least one more addition even if none of the protagonists depart, but it’s safe to extrapolate a little bit.
GOALKEEPERS
This one’s easy. David de Gea is the starter. Tommaso
Martinelli is the backup and cup starter. The 3rd guy might change—Oliver Christensen en route to Sturm Graz, Luca Lezzerini joining on a free—but that 3rd guy shouldn’t see the pitch. That’s not to say he doesn’t matter, of course (Antonio Rosati is my MVP for always and ever) but since we’re not around the team, we can’t evaluate his impact.
THE DEFENDERS
Even after shipping out Nicolás Valentini and Matías Moreno, Fiorentina’s got 5 senior centerbacks. So far, the starting 3 has been Luca Ranieri, Pablo Marí, and Pietro Comuzzo, which feels set in stone. I’d wondered about Marí versus Marin Pongračić but Pioli’s put his trust in the Spaniard, who’s been a bit less agricultural on the ball so far. Pongračić has been a little rough in the friendlies and hasn’t helped his case; I can’t imagine him leaping past any of the starters unless something wild happens.
The wildcard is Mattia Viti, who’s been nursing an injury (uh oh) and hasn’t played yet. I doubt he’ll unseat Ranieri but he could also slot into the middle. I’m interested to see how Pioli allots minutes between them, as he doesn’t have any attachment to the Croatia international.
I’d also keep a close eye on Eman Košpo, who left Barcelona because he couldn’t get any first team minutes; it’d be weird for him to join the Viola only to wind up in a similar situation, so I’m expecting him to get some burn in cup competitions. Eddy Kouadio looks like the next academy kid to earn a first team role but, with Košpo in the fold, he’ll probably have to wait another year.
THE WINGBACKS
This is another pretty simple one. Robin Gosens and Dodô are locked and loaded on the wings; all they need is a catchy avian nickname. They’re both top quality professionals. On the left, Fabiano Parisi is a competent backup. Youngster Niccolò Fortini is an unknown on the right; he was excellent at Juve Stabia last year but has missed the entire preseason so far with injury, so Pioli hasn’t been able to evaluate him.
The only wrinkle here is Dodô’s extension, which reportedly isn’t going well. If the team and the Brazilian aren’t able to arrive at a mutually-beneficial terms, he’ll move for €25-30 million. That would require adding another wingback and likely someone who can at least compete with Fortini for the job, although Pradè would probably shell out for an established commodity. For now, though, the depth chart is set.
THE MIDFIELD
This is the most fluid situation on the team. Right now, the starting trio is Nicolò Fagioli, Jacopo Fazzini, and Rolando Mandragora, although the latter’s been out all summer (and it has nothing to do with his renewal negotiations, of course). Cher Ndour’s had a good preseason and might’ve leapfrogged Amir Richardson, who also missed a lot of time with a family matter and is still getting up to speed. Alessandro Bianco’s had moments but I think he’s well behind those two. Abdelhamid Sabiri’s played a surprising number of minutes too, but even if he sticks around, he’ll be an end-of-the-bench, break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option.
The midfield is where Pradè is targeting signings and the rumor mill has obliged with a constant stream of “options.” Knowing how the DS operates, I’d guess that nobody’s mentioned his actual target yet, but I’m fully expecting Fiorentina to sign a starter-quality regista this summer. I wouldn’t be shocked if another midfield option showed up either, especially if Richardson/Ndour/Bianco/Sabiri don’t make the cut. If that happens, Fagioli would shuffle between regista and mezzala and Fazzini would probably lose the most minutes.
THE FORWARDS
Again, there’s a pretty clear hierarchy here. Moise Kean is the alpha and the omega, the most important player on the team and the basis of any success this year. Albert Guðmundsson has regularly started ahead of Edin Džeko so far, exactly as Pioli hinted in his first press conference; the plan is clearly to have a number 9 high up and a number 10 dropping off, although Džeko’s looked more like a playmaker than a finisher at times in the friendlies with how he’s dropped off and knocked the ball around for his teammates. Given Guðmundsson’s constant injuries, we’ll still see the Kean-Džeko pairing, but the mister wants a bit more fantasia up front.
The odd man out is Lucas Beltrán, who’s all but wearing a For Sale sign on his forehead. My guess is that he moves this summer, but his desire to stay in Europe makes it trickier as thus far his suitors have all been South American. He’s not a bad fit in the number 10 role behind Guðmundsson but his goal aversion is a problem. If he goes, Pradè will dip into the mercato for a replacement, probably a youngster who won’t require a ton of minutes and can develop within the squad for a year or two. My money’s on Sebastiano Esposito, who’s mysteriously still an Inter Milan player, but there are plenty of alternatives.
THE ROTATION
Again, I don’t entirely believe in the concept of a first XI for a team that’s competing on 3 fronts, because things are never that simple. Looking at how Pioli divvied up minutes at his previous stops, I’d guess that he’ll lean on 5-7 players as his regular starters while rotating through another 9-12, with defenders generally playing more due to the physical demands of the jobs farther forward. Injuries can obviously change this equation, but assuming relatively good health across the roster (which won’t happen), here’s my guess.
THE CORE (2000+ league minutes): de Gea, Comuzzo, Ranieri, Dodô, Gosens, Fagioli, Kean
IMPORTANT PIECES (1200-1999 league minutes): Viti, Parisi, Mandragora, Fazzini, Guðmundsson, Džeko
SPOT STARTERS (500-1199 league minutes): Martinelli, Pongračić, Fortini, Ndour, Richardson, Beltrán
THE FRINGE (<500 minutes): Košpo, Kouadio, Bianco, Sabiri, Kouamé
CONCLUSIONS
If I’ve got this more or less right, the defense, wingback, and forward units are pretty much set in stone, barring any departures. The midfield remains iffy and probably needs another guy who can soak up 1200-1999 league minutes (for context, Mandragora, Danilo Cataldi, Yacine Adli all hit that number last year). Since I’m not convinced that the current quartet of backups will stick on the roster, I expect another depth signing as well.
That said, based on the current squad, we’re only looking at 1-2 more signings. Selling Dodô and Beltrán would force Pradè into acquiring replacements, but even if both depart, we’re looking at just 4 more signings this summer, with just 2 expected to contribute major minutes. This rosters’s in good shape before August and could get even better in the next couple of weeks, which is a huge improvement on last summer.
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