Since MLB moved to its expanded playoff format in 2022, we’ve seen a transformation of the midseason trade market. With three Wild Card spots in each league, it’s harder to find pure sellers. At the All-Star break, 24 of MLB’s 30 teams were within 7.5 games of a Wild Card berth, giving them at least a theoretical argument that, if all broke their way, they could still sneak into the postseason.
The Athletics are one of the other six. 11 games out of the third Wild Card slot at 41-57, the [geographic
location redacted] squad should be gearing up to sell everything that isn’t nailed down. One of their assets likely to draw the most interest is Jeffrey Springs. A 30th-round draft pick of the Rangers back in 2015, Springs broke into the big leagues in 2018. After three middling seasons with Texas and Boston, he became the latest in a long line of reclamation arms in Tampa Bay. After an effective season as a reliever in 2021, the lefty had a breakout campaign split between the rotation and bullpen in 2022, posting a 2.46 ERA and 144:31 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 135.1 innings. He signed a four-year, $31 million deal that offseason and appeared poised to be a mainstay in the Rays’ rotation for years to come. Alas, the Tommy John bug bit Springs, limiting him to just 10 appearances over the next two seasons.
Last December, amidst an uncharacteristic flurry of moves by the Athletics to actually augment their major-league roster, they acquired Springs as the headliner in a five-player deal. He got off to a rough start in his new uniform, allowing 25 runs and 16 walks through his first 28.1 innings. Since then, though, his outcomes have been much more like the pitcher Tampa Bay wanted to lock up. If you take out his first month of the season, the 32-year-old has a 3.20 ERA.
His 4.71 FIP over that period throws some cold water on his success, as do some of his underlying metrics. As opposed to in his 2022 season, when he had one of the highest chase rates in baseball and was above average in both strikeout and walk percentages, Springs is at or below league average in all three. He ranks in the 23rd percentile in strikeout rate and the seventh percentile in ground-ball rate, meaning he relies on the far more dangerous line drives and fly balls to record about half of his outs. Opponents are also mashing his fastballs. His four-seamer, which tops out in the low 90s, has an opposing slugging percentage of .428 and his cutter, which sits in the mid-80s, has an unsightly .786 mark.
Springs’ changeup has been his most effective pitch, holding opponents to a .194 batting average, but they’ve still hit seven long balls off the pitch. To put it plainly, there is very little to cling to in the veteran’s peripherals to point to him being more than a back-of-the-rotation innings-eater at this point in his career.
Of course, in an MLB landscape with a bevy of elbow injuries to topline starters and very few true sellers, that type of arm will still be in demand. Springs is under contract through next year at $10.5 million per year, a very reasonable rate even for a back-end starter, with a $15 million club option for 2027 alongside just a $750,000 opt-out. There would be little reason for the A’s to hang onto the starter through his mid-30s, so they should be motivated to move him now even if the return is less than earth-shattering.
With Luis Gil and Ryan Yarbrough expected to return this season, Springs could be an intriguing option to fill in as a rotation piece in the short term and bounce to the bullpen if and when the rotation is at full strength, adding a left-handed presence which has been lacking outside of Tim Hill. Still, it’s hard not to wonder — do the Yankees really need a second Yarbrough on their roster?
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