A Long-Term Appraisal of the Devils’ Defenders

Hamilton and Dillon worked pretty well as a pairing for top six lines last season. | Photo by Rich Graessle/NHLI via Getty Images

The New Jersey Devils are stacked on defense. While many teams would be utterly enthused at the quality players the Devils have on their back-end, some Devils fans are concerned that some of the veterans are blocking younger players from the team. On the contrary, I think this level of depth is necessary. In any given season, if a team’s full set of six starting defenders play all 82 games, or even 75+, they are almost impossibly lucky. Between blocking shots, fighting off forechecks, and engaging

in netfront battles, defensemen bear the brunt of hockey most severely. A playoff team to having seven viable NHL starting defensemen almost guarantees them a lineup that can win when it matters most, as it gives them the flexibility to rotate bottom pair defenders in and out of the lineup, ensuring that injuries do not hamper the team in the spring.

However, it is true that the New Jersey Devils will have to make tough choices over the next few years. With the now-plainly and openly-spoken possibility of Quinn Hughes joining the Devils in July 2027, the Devils will need to make sure that their current level of defensive depth does not go to waste when that time comes.

The Untouchable: Luke Hughes

Given the above, there is only one untouchable player on the defense as far as trades go. Luke Hughes, like his brother Jack, is one of the few untouchable players on the team, alongside Nico Hischier (and possibly Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier). Obviously, some other players have trade protections, but in abstract, there are few players whose presence on the team are absolutely essential to competing for a Stanley Cup, both now and five years from now.

As I wrote on Sunday, Luke Hughes is not yet a number one defenseman by his performance in the 2024-25 season. But that does not mean he will be unable to correct his weaker points while exploiting his advantages to bring himself to elite status. Signing Luke Hughes to a max-term extension seems to be the final big move of the offseason, and that will go a long way to keeping him and Jack together for a long time, at the very least. As mentioned in the linked article, they are not just nice to have on the team together, but they have also shown signs of being a nearly-unstoppable duo:

Luke + Jack (no Palat): 96:52 TOI, 67.88 CF%, 62-27 SF-SA (69.66%), 6-2 GF-GA (75.00%), 5.6-1.78 xGF-xGA (75.91%)

Whether those results are the products of the foresight of the hockey operations or marketing departments, the Devils would be foolish to leave their future in New Jersey to chance. Luke Hughes should not be going anywhere for the next nine seasons, at minimum.

Great Contract, Great Fit: Jonas Siegenthaler

While his 2023-24 season was concerning, Jonas Siegenthaler has overcome his injury woes and returned to form as one of the best shutdown defenders in the NHL. Paired with Johnny Kovacevic, Siegenthaler made up half of the best defensive pairing in the NHL with more than 500 minutes played together (62 such pairings) in terms of expected goals against per 60 minutes (1.84) and goals against per 60 (1.36). So, if you are wondering why Tom Fitzgerald was not very eager to let Kovacevic go to free agency, that might explain it a bit. For Siegenthaler, though, see his Evolving-Hockey player card below.

Evolving-Hockey

With three years remaining on his five-year contract worth $3.4 million per season, Siegenthaler has one of the best contracts in the NHL. To compete for a Stanley Cup, teams need at least some players who provide more value on the ice than what they are paid for, and Siegenthaler is one of those guys. It does not hurt that he is one of the leading members of the Swiss National Team. Siegenthaler, Hischier, and Meier are three of the 11 Swiss players in the NHL (including Lian Bichsel and Akira Schmid, who are not established players by any means), and they were thus obvious choices for the preliminary roster selections for the Olympics in 2026. These connections may even factor in Nico Hischier’s long-term future with the Devils.

When Siegenthaler’s contract expires in 2028, he will be 31 years old. While that time is too far away to predict well, I imagine that the Devils will keep him after that point, given the less-certain stock of left-handed defensemen in the Devils’ system.

Fair Contracts, Great Fits: Dougie Hamilton and Brett Pesce

Also expiring in 2028, Dougie Hamilton’s contract is a source of much discussion for Devils fans. He has undeniably been an effective player on the ice due to his ability to generate offense, which is vastly superior to all but a handful of defensemen in the league. Additionally, Hamilton has usually been a threat to score, though his reduced usage of the slap shot in 2024-25 after his pectoral surgery limited his effectiveness there. The Devils’ playoff hopes in 2026 partially hinge on Hamilton’s ability to continue regaining that strength and build his goal-scoring back up.

Some might want his contract to read $8 million instead of $9 million, but it’s too marginal a difference to make a fuss over when Hamilton is still capable of putting up 60 or so points in a full season. He is effective in all situations — even on the penalty kill (where he will likely have to play again in Kovacevic’s absence) — and the Devils regularly win his matchups when he plays with top six lines. Paired primarily with Brenden Dillon in 2024-25, that duo ranked 18th out of the 62 pairings with 500 minutes together with a 56.58 goals for percentage and 20th in expected goals percentage at 53.53%. The Devils play very high-event hockey with those two on the ice, with that pairing ranking third in on-ice shots for per 60 minutes (32.59) and second in goals for per 60 (3.57, just behind the Vince Dunn — Adam Larsson pairing in Seattle). Their 3.15 expected goals per 60 also ranked fourth among the 62-most played pairings in the league. This offense far outweighs the defensive downside. HockeyViz estimates Hamilton’s total offensive impact to be over twice as beneficial (+6.0 5v5 offense sG + 1.1 PP offense sG) as his total defensive impact is detrimental (-3.3 5v5 defense sG + 0.3 PK defense sG). He’ll get back to scale-breaking status if he starts scoring more goals again.

HockeyViz

On the other hand, Brett Pesce is a much less controversial player. Making $5.5 million per season through the 2029-30 season, Pesce brings a solid two-way impact to the table, though he does not light the scoresheet up. Unfortunately for Pesce, the Devils were at their most unlucky when he was on the ice, as the Hughes-Pesce pairing ranked 57th out of 62 in on-ice shot percentage (7.06%), 53rd in on-ice save percentage (.898), and 59th in total PDO (0.969). Their goals against per 60 (2.42, ranked 20th) lined up with expected numbers (2.43, ranked 34th), but that shot percentage dragged an expected 2.7 goals for per 60 (ranked 21st) to a reality of 1.97 goals scored per 60 (ranked 56th). Perhaps more robust bottom six depth will help them reach the same effectiveness that the other pairings had in the 2024-25 season, but there is always the possibility of a shake-up.

The Devils’ abundance of right-handed defenseman is well-known, but Brett Pesce has a crucial ability: he can play the left side effectively. In the 2024-25 season, Pesce played 123:54 with Johnny Kovacevic, 32:10 with Dougie Hamilton, 10:02 with Simon Nemec, and 7:57 with Seamus Casey. In all of those combined minutes, the Devils outscored opponents 7-5, with the only bad pairing being with Simon Nemec (0-1, 27.42 xGF%). With Kovacevic, Hamilton, and Casey, Pesce had a combined 53.73 xGF% as a left-side defenseman, and the Pesce-Kovacevic and Pesce-Casey pairings comprised two of the three (Dumoulin-Pesce being the other) Pesce pairings to have a positive goal differential. Dillon-Pesce and Pesce-Hamilton were both even. However, during their time together in Carolina, the Pesce-Hamilton pairing outscored opponents 10-3 in 91:34 of five-on-five ice time on top of a 65.61 xGF%. This is not a new development for Pesce.

Come playoff time in 2026, the Devils will be free to use their best defenders as they see fit because of Pesce’s two-side ability. That could mean Hamilton, Pesce, Kovacevic, and Nemec all play, despite the consternation about Nemec’s role with the team. It’s up to the Devils’ seven to prove that they deserve that ice time.

Good Fits, But Questionable Long-Term Futures in NJ: Brenden Dillon and Johnny Kovacevic

When Tom Fitzgerald’s front office set out to correct the team’s needs in the 2024 offseason, they wanted two things: get bigger and get grittier. They achieved that in signing Brenden Dillon and trading for Johnny Kovacevic. As established above, both the Dillon-Hamilton and Siegenthaler-Kovacevic pairings have been very fruitful, but the reality of the team’s roster construction makes their futures with the team questionable beyond this season.

While I do not believe that Simon Nemec is blocked by Johnny Kovacevic, there is one more player in Seamus Casey who will be pushing for ice time over the next couple of seasons. Casey is just 21 years old, so there should be no issue with letting him develop in the AHL. However, when Kovacevic’s trade protection goes from a full no-trade clause to a 10-team no trade list in 2027-28, the Devils will have to assess their defensive picture. By then, young players who are not ready now may be in consideration for big roles, while Dougie Hamilton and Brett Pesce (who has stronger trade protections beyond 2025-26) will still be under contract, alongside Jonas Siegenthaler and Luke Hughes. I think Kovacevic is safe until 2027, but the low price of his contract and the marginal trade protection he has beyond that point might mean he does not make it through all five seasons of his deal.

Brenden Dillon is a simpler case in the sense that his deal only runs through 2026-27. He has a full no-trade clause this season, but only a 10-team no trade list next year. He means a lot to the Devils, though. He has brought open-ice, bone-crunching hits back to the team’s identity. He is practically an enforcer, unafraid to fight even when Kurtis MacDermid is on the ice. It was extremely unfortunate that he was not able to stick with the team through the first round series against the Hurricanes, suffering a neck injury in Game One after playing all 82 regular season games.

The big question, in my opinion, is Anton Silayev, who will get more discussion below. His KHL contract runs out in 2026. If he is deemed ready for the NHL, that could spell the end of Dillon’s time in New Jersey. Otherwise, Dillon will probably finish his contract with the team. I just would not expect him to be a re-signing candidate afterwards, unless Dillon was ready to take more of a depth role, considering he will be 36 upon his contract’s expiry.

The Hopeful: Simon Nemec

You have seen the rumors. You saw them last year. Some people want to push the idea that Simon Nemec is either confused or outright disgruntled about his future in New Jersey. Considering that Nemec just turned 21 in February, it all seems extremely premature. Yes, he is a second-overall pick, but he is a defenseman. Not many defensemen are handed big roles this early in their careers, even if they were drafted high. Sure, Dougie Hamilton broke in at 19. Luke Hughes became a regular at 20. Some guys, like Adam Larsson, break in early, get sent back and forth to the AHL, and re-establish themselves later. Larsson was 22 when he did so. Around the league, 21 to 22 is a good age to look at. Rasmus Dahlin really broke out at 22. Cale Makar didn’t even play in the NHL until he was 21. Not everyone is ready at 19, 20, or 21.

The important thing is that Simon Nemec has not shown enough to be given that level of respect by NHL coaches. He can hold his own, physically, but is not an especially physical player. He had 19 points in 60 games as a 19 to 20-year old in his rookie year. That inspires hope, but it doesn’t guarantee a permanent starting role. With Nemec needing to prove himself in a new system in 2024-25, it is not incredibly surprising that he struggled. Keefe’s system is more defensively demanding than Ruff’s. In the playoffs, it seemed like Nemec had himself set straight, culminating in his Game Three overtime game winner.

Nemec will have a starting role to begin the 2025-26 season. Johnny Kovacevic’s knee injury has all but guaranteed that: and that’s hockey. Getting sent down is not the end of the world, but top-five picks also don’t generally play for playoff teams with designs of contending within two years of being drafted. From my point of view, there is not a single team in the NHL that would have blinked twice about sending Nemec to the AHL for more ice time if they had the defense the Devils already had and a record that shows they are playing to win. Nemec’s task is therefore simple: play too well to sit in the press box. If he plays like he did in the playoffs, he might get there in the 2025-26 season. Otherwise, he will have to deal with a rotation.

The goal is to ice the best team now, while keeping players who will make the team better years down the line. If the Devils feature Luke and Quinn Hughes two years from now, who do you think will be paired next to a Hughes? It’s going to be Simon Nemec. The easy road of just letting him play in the NHL regardless of whether his play dictates that he deserves it will only do him and the team a disservice when that time comes.

The Dark Horse: Seamus Casey

Most people may have already designated Seamus Casey as a trade piece, but he is hardly unique as far is comes to being a prospect expected to stay in the AHL for awhile. Scott Morrow, who left UMass in 2024, played most of the 2024-25 season with the Chicago Wolves of the AHL. The Hurricanes ultimately traded Morrow to the New York Rangers in a package for K’Andre Miller, but there are a few things to note.

• While Casey will turn 22 on January 8, 2026, Scott Morrow will turn 23 on November 1.
• Morrow was less of a point producer at UMass than Casey was at Michigan, despite being older. Casey had 15 more points in the 2023-24 NCAA season than Morrow.
• Their limited NHL time has been similar in point totals, but Casey has scored four goals and four assists in 14 NHL games to Morrow’s one goal and five assists in 16 games.
• Morrow had a better season in the AHL with 39 points in 52 games, while Casey had 18 points in 30 games, along with an upper-body injury that kept him out of the lineup from December 19 to February 8.

Due to his size, Seamus Casey is probably not worth as much in a trade now as he would be after another full AHL season with possible NHL time. As things stand, he is still one injury away from a call-up to the NHL, though Calen Addison and Dennis Cholowski may also receive consideration. I expect Addison or Cholowski to be the initial extra defenseman, but I would be annoyed if Cholowski got extended starts instead of making a call for Casey in the case of further injuries. Addison may yet be a viable NHL player, as he showed promise with Minnesota in the 2022-23 season. But I do not believe either have the future Casey has. Addison is 25, but had severe defensive struggles in San Jose, while Cholowski, 27, has not made much of his opportunities.

If the team is patient enough with him and the cards fall in the right place, they could have a right side of Nemec, Pesce, and Casey after Hamilton’s contract expires. That would be especially smooth, allowing Casey to take up Hamilton’s right-side puck mover role once he has developed more in the AHL. Though, with Siegenthaler, Silayev, and Kovacevic ranging from possibly to likely being on the team, along with the Hughes brothers, it is not a certainty. Unless they have a deal in place to make the team better now, though, I would try to avoid trading Casey until next offseason. Casey will not be waiver eligible for quite awhile, and I imagine his trade value will only increase after additional successful call-up stints and some healthy weight gain.

The Big Question: Anton Silayev

According to Elite Prospects, Anton Silayev is under contract through the 2025-26 season in the KHL. A member of HC Torpedo in Nizhny Novgorod, Silayev is on a team that has perpetually been on the cusp of true contention since the KHL replaced the Russian SuperLeague in 2008, though they have not sent many players to the NHL in their history. And, as the Devils have learned over the last few years, a player apparently being available for a move over to the NHL does not necessarily mean their representation will move in that direction. Many would have expected Arseni Gritsyuk to sign with the Devils after his contract with Avangard Omsk expired in 2023, but he was signed to a two-year KHL contract after SKA St. Petersburg acquired his rights from Avangard. So, Mike Morreale might say that the Devils expect Anton Silayev to sign with the team after his contract with Torpedo expires, but it is no certainty until it happens.

In any case, Silayev is a 6’7” defenseman, and he won’t turn 20 years old until April 11, 2026. If the Devils tell him that they want to sign him, but they want him to play in the AHL first, he could very well just re-sign in Russia. Or he might have his rights acquired by a powerhouse team that has a lot of sway like SKA St. Petersburg. Regardless, I am not going to assume that Silayev is going to be ready for the NHL in October 2026. The KHL is an imperfect league for developing the offensive capabilities of defensemen. Alexander Nikishin did not break out offensively until he was 21 years old, when he went from Spartak Moskva to St. Petersburg, spurning the Carolina Hurricanes for a few years. Soon to be 24 years old on October 2, he will make his debut with Carolina this season.

What happens here will have massive impacts on the other players in this article. If Silayev actually signs in 2026, that is a big movement towards trading guys like Seamus Casey. If Silayev is ready for the NHL, that might mean Brenden Dillon gets traded. It might mean Hamilton or Kovacevic is moved the next offseason to make room for a possible Quinn Hughes acquisition. But if Silayev signs another KHL contract, some, but not all of that could go out the window. And then there’s the question of if he will actually be ready for the NHL when he does sign. You cannot rush perfection.

The Big Picture and Injuries

Personally, if I had to make a prediction that will likely age poorly, this is what I’m thinking:

• The 2026-27 Devils feature the same defense they have now. Seamus Casey is traded if nobody is hurt (and if he’s not traded this offseason), but he sticks around if someone is on the mend (which, knowing this team, is decently likely).
• The Devils trade Kovacevic in 2027 to make room for Quinn Hughes’s arrival, giving them a defense of Quinn Hughes, Luke Hughes, Jonas Siegenthaler, Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce, and Simon Nemec. If Seamus Casey is still on the team, he is their seventh defenseman, unless Brenden Dillon takes a sweetheart deal.
• The Devils re-sign Siegenthaler and allow Dougie Hamilton to walk, giving them a 2028-29 defense of Quinn, Luke, Siegenthaler, Silayev, Pesce, and Nemec, with one of Quinn or Luke Hughes playing on the right side.
• In the even longer term, the Devils likely do not retain Pesce beyond 2030, allowing Seamus Casey to take a full role (he would only be 26 at this point) if he somehow survives all these years without being traded. (It would be a pretty awesome defense with him, though.)

Reading this, you are probably wondering why I encourage such a conservative approach to trading defenseman. I simply expect guys to get hurt. This is the list of Devils defensemen who have had surgery in the last two years:

• Brett Pesce (October 2023 — lower body; season-ending 2024 — undisclosed)
• Dougie Hamilton (December 2023 — pectoral)
• Jonas Siegenthaler (February 2025 — lower body)
• Luke Hughes (May 2025 — shoulder)
• Johnny Kovacevic (May 2025 — knee)

And players who have had injuries that have not been surgically addressed:

• Simon Nemec (upper-body — August 2024)
• Seamus Casey (upper-body — December 2024)
• Dougie Hamilton (knee — March 2025)
• Brett Pesce (shoulder — Game One @CAR)
• Brenden Dillon (neck — Game One @CAR)

While Pesce’s shoulder injury may not have been too serious, the other three were significant. Simon Nemec was compromised for much of the 2024-25 season, Casey missed significant time and was reportedly not allowed to work on puck handling in his time off, and Dillon was completely unable to play in the playoffs. If the Devils go ahead and make trades, they should not be surprised if they have to lean on players of questionable caliber. You might be able to sell me on having lesser forwards plug up fourth line minutes in injury fill-ins, but defense is a different beast. A bad play at forward means the Devils wait a bit longer to score a goal. A bad play on defense means they have to score to make up for the defenseman’s mistake.

So yes, I am willing to give the prospects plenty of time in the AHL, and I would like to see a seven-defenseman rotation. Had the team not been juggling what to do with Dennis Cholowski and a not-ready Seamus Casey in the 2025 playoffs, maybe Brett Pesce and Brian Dumoulin would not have had to play close to 35 minutes a night while Jonas Siegenthaler played far too early in return from his February surgery. Defense is still the biggest strength of this team. It’s the basis of their identity, and they should appreciate the high level depth they have accumulated while they still have it.

Your Thoughts

What do you think of the defense, both now and into the future? What do you think of my assessment of how each player fits into the big picture? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.

More from allaboutthejersey.com:

• Looking Back at the 2008-09 Devils for Ideas for the Future Devils Offense
• Let’s Re-Do the 2015-16 New Jersey Devils Season in EHM: December 2015
• Beware: October Offensive Woes
• Devils Sign Gormley to One Year Contract
• Injuries Hurt Devils Much More than Most
• Devils Will Need Their Youth to Power the Bottom Six
• Team with our drafted player only