Hello STS! We are about to kick off the eagerly anticipated 2025 campaign with “The Big Weigh In” and the start of fall camp. I thought I would look back at how similar the offensive improvement we saw in 2024 from 2023 was to what we saw in 2011 after the 2010 campaign. I wrote a projection-type piece on this back last offseason you can see here.
The chart linked above gives a quick breakdown of the jumps in production from 2010 to 2011 and then 2023 to 2024. Things were
not entirely apples to apples, as they rarely are in football or any sport, because 2011 saw not only a change in offensive coordinator and system, but also a new starting QB. Garrett Riley was back for his second season in 2024 and returned Cade Klubnik as QB1. Also, it is harder to improve from where the 2023 offense was versus the paltry numbers the 2010 unit put up that season. This is akin to it being easier to improve a grade of 70 in a class than it is an 80. However, Coach Swinney clearly stated that scoring offense and “throwing and catching” had to be better last season and they were. Any modern offense that can’t average over 30ppg is going to place a hard ceiling on what that team can accomplish even if the defense is very good. The Tigers were just under 35ppg. For comparison, the Ohio State title team this past season averaged 35.7. Michigan averaged 35.9 the year before.
This 2025 Clemson team should have legitimate title asperations (beyond the ACC) and just a modest jump in offensive production should be sufficient provided the defense can make the necessary improvements under Tom Allen. The slight slip in production from 2023 and 24 was in the run game, but the combination of the OL injuries and injuries to Phil Mafah and Jay Haynes in the latter half of the season was a huge factor there. While the Tigers lack a clearly established RB1 as of right now, there certainly looks to be an improvement in depth and options compared to last season. Meanwhile the OL depth appears to be about as good as it has been in a decade which will hopefully offset disruption from injuries that occur somewhere on the line more often than not.
The biggest boon to the 2011 renaissance was at WR, as Sammy Watkins and his signing class came in and injected serious speed and athleticism to the group. I had this to say in my article last fall, “If Wesco and/or Moore can do anything to approach the playmaking ability on the outside that Watkins gave the 2011 team (when even the basic WR screen became a potential TD), the offense surely can get back to the 34-38 point per game range that easily makes 12 wins or more and the playoffs a reality.” Well, Bryant Wesco and T.J. Moore combined for 86 catches for 1,359 yards and 10 TDs. Sammy Watkins had 82 catches for 1,219 yards and 12 TDs in 2011. That box was checked and the point production reflected the boost.
Since Clemson returns Klubnik and the WR corps from last season, let’s take a look at the 2012 offense that returned its WR unit as well from 2011. Tajh Boyd saw a slight jump in his passing yardage from 3828 to 3896 yards, but his completion percentage jumped from 59.7 to 67.2, his YPA jumped from 7.7 to 9.1, and his air yards per attempt (AY/A) jumped from 7.91 to 9.44. Boyd’s passing TDs went up from 33 to 36 and he also added 5 more rushing TDs in 2012 from 2011. Oh, and this was with 13 games in 2012 compared to 14 in 2011.
Cade finished last year with 3639 yards passing, completing 63.4% with a YPA of 7.5 and AY/A of 8.41 for 36 TDs and another 7 TDs rushing. Those numbers are right in the realm of what Boyd did in 2011. It is easy to forget that 2011 offense had its problems early in the season before breaking out against Auburn in game 3, but that team didn’t have to face a team like UGA out of the gate like the 24 Tigers did.
Overall, there are interesting parallels that have emerged, including a change at defensive coordinator following an embarrassing defensive collapse in the final game after seeing marked offensive improvement. If Cade can make another jump in completion percentage and YPA and AY/A like Tajh did in 2012, he will likely be a Heisman finalist. In my opinion, the possibilities in 2025 are certainly exciting when you look at things this way.
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