Raymond Ford vs Abraham Nova
This was meant to be Ford taking on Anthony Cacace, which I thought was a really compelling matchup, but Cacace is hurt and he’s out. Instead, the 26-year-old Ford (17-1-1, 8 KO) continues his quest for a second world title, now at 130 lbs, against short-notice foe Nova.
The 31-year-old Nova (24-3-1, 17 KO) made his way up as a regional fighter in the Northeastern states before getting some opportunities with Top Rank starting in 2020. Known for paying to have a big mascot suit of himself made for someone
else to wear, which seems a waste of limited money at his prior level but did get some attention, Nova is a fringe contender sort and has been since making it to the bigger leagues of the sport. He’s 3-3-1 in his last seven fights, and the win that evened that up on June 7 came at — and this is a weird thing to say — a small show at Fenway Park over a journeyman with a 65-72-3 record coming into the bout. His losses have come against Robeisy Ramirez, O’Shaquie Foster, and Andres Cortes, all good fighters, but it was his draw with Humberto Galindo last November that makes it seem like perhaps we’ve seen the best he can do, he came up short on those attempts, and now it’s a gradual run downhill.
Ford is an Eddie Hearn favorite and has a lot of talent, and in his two fights since moving up from 126 — where he believes he stayed a fight too long with his loss to Nick Ball last year — have seen him arguably sweep 20 rounds against Orlando Gonzalez and Thomas Mattice, who are fringe contender types themselves. On paper, Nova is about equal to those guys.
Prediction: If Ford is good and locked in, and the opponent switch hasn’t troubled him at all, this should be relatively easy work for him. Nova isn’t a pushover, but he’s just not a serious contender, and Ford has repeatedly, handily dealt with opponents on this level. Add in that Nova doesn’t seem to have anything in his style that really SHOULD give Ford any notable issues, and it’s hard to pick against the favorite. In fact, I’m going to say Ford gets a stoppage, because that’s what happened the last time Nova fought a southpaw. Ford TKO-8
Filip Hrgovic vs David Adeleye
Now 33, Croatia’s Hrgovic (18-1, 14 KO) won bronze at the 2016 Olympics — which easily could have been something more, as his loss to eventual gold medalist Tony Yoka was plenty debatable — and already had a bit of a reputation around the pro world. He’s the man who cut David Haye in sparring ahead of Haye’s planned-then-canceled fight with Tyson Fury back in 2013, and he also sparred with Kubrat Pulev ahead of Pulev’s 2014 fight with Wladimir Klitschko.
After turning pro in 2017, his time in the paid ranks has been a bit of a mixed bag, and can probably be considered at least mildly disappointing. He’s a good fighter, but he’s never quite distinguished himself beyond the pack of mid-tier top 10 fighters, and the last few years have seen him with chances to do exactly that. If you’re still waiting for better out of the 6’6” veteran, you’ll probably be waiting forever. He’s as good as he is, and he is good. He’s just not special, lacking those extra gears or plus-plus attributes that tend to set fighters apart.
Adeleye (14-1, 13 KO) got some domestic-level hype after turning pro in 2019. He can bang, and he’s rebounded nicely after his TKO loss to Fabio Wardley in 2023, roaring back with a first round stoppage of Solomon Dacres in late 2024 and a sixth round TKO over Jeamie TKV on April 5 of this year, winning the British title, which he has vacated because he wants to focus on bigger things.
Prediction: My head wants to say Hrgovic, but then my head remembers all the times Hrgovic has just sort of switched off in fights. Usually he’s been able to get through them and win, but it’s a dangerous game to play, and Adeleye has the sort of power that if he catches Hrgovic cold either early or mid-fight when the Croatian is in one of his lulls, that could be enough. I really am conflicted on this one because I think Hrgovic is the better boxer at his best, and by a good bit, but he has bad habits that can be real trouble, and you can only “survive” those bad habits so many times. Going with the upset pick here, with the note in this gambling-obsessed culture that I’m not advising you to follow my advice and then yell at me later. Adeleye TKO-9
Nick Ball vs Sam Goodman
Ball (22-0-1, 13 KO) is, height-wise, tiny for a featherweight, which in normal, everyday life is pretty tiny guys to begin with, capping at 126 lbs. But Ball is a 5’2” on a good day. He’s also packed with muscle, physically very strong for the weight, mean in the ring, and the rough way he fights tests opponents’ spirits in a big way.
He has also seemed pretty intent on only fighting people coming up from 122 lbs since he took this title from Raymond Ford a little over a year ago. Ball’s first two defenses came against Ronny Rios and TJ Doheny, two veterans he stopped in the 10th round, and now he has Australia’s Goodman (20-0, 8 KO), who was in line for a crack at Naoya Inoue down at 122 but repeatedly bailed on a scheduled fight for various reasons.
Goodman, 26, last fought on May 14 in Australia, winning a clear decision in a fight that had a 124 lb contract weight. He’s a good fighter, but is and should be the underdog in this one, because Ball, 28, is on a roll in his career right now.
Still, you have to wonder how long that roll can keep going. Ball has one speed and one style. He’s very effective with it, but at world level he is fairly easy for an opponent to prepare to face. Dealing with it is different than preparing for it, but you don’t have to be all “ready for anything,” you know what he’s going to do. You get the sense that one of these nights, Ball’s game is just not going to quite work out, that someone will have the plan down pat, will box him effectively and frustrate him, and then we’ll really see what Ball’s got. Can he adjust? Can he actually do anything differently? Or will he bang away at the task until the clock runs out and he’s now a mile behind?
I kind of think that’s inevitable, but the question is who can actually do it?
Prediction: I don’t think it’s Sam Goodman who can actually do it. It might need to be someone with more sting in their shots, someone who can really get Ball’s attention, because Ball takes a good shot along with everything else. Someone has to rattle Nick Ball to beat him. If Goodman has the night of his life and is just effective enough for seven of 12 rounds, sure, he can win this fight. But that’s a thin line to walk, too. I gotta go with Ball to retain again, but I think he has to go the distance this time, and that Goodman will win a few rounds out there, think around 116-112 or so. Ball UD-12
Moses Itauma vs Dillian Whyte
Itauma (12-0, 10 KO) is receiving a rapidly-increasing level of hype that has started to include comparisons to Mike Tyson and the twinkle of plans to put him in against undisputed champion Oleksandr Usyk. At 20, this is big-time dreaming. Whyte (31-3, 21 KO) is 37 years old and past his best days, but heavyweights don’t generally age as rapidly as smaller fighters, and “The Body Snatcher” may still be plenty dangerous, especially as Itauma has never gone past six rounds as a professional.
Tony Bellew said recently on Darren Barker’s show that he expects Whyte, logically, to try to get through six rounds and then see what the young man has in the second half of the fight. Dave Allen, in the same segment, warned Itauma that Whyte’s experience alone makes him a “different level of competition,” and that Itauma cannot afford to get ahead of himself and expect it to be easy.
Bellew also admitted that Itauma, with his speed and power and skill, may truly be able to get Whyte out early, though.
I think this is a very good matchup for where Itauma is in his career. He may bowl Whyte over, but it’s the sort of natural step that he has to get through. Whyte has been chosen for a reason, and it’s the belief that he’s washed, but even if he is he still has dangerous power if Itauma gets overconfident, perhaps especially early, and Whyte can time the kid opening up to go for something big.
Prediction: I think this will get into the second half, but not too far in, and that consistent damage done will finally be too much for Whyte. The speed is where I expect Itauma to make the biggest dent on the veteran. Whyte will land a few shots that will open Itauma’s eyes to what needs immediate attention in the gym, defensively. In the end, it will have been an actual valuable experience for the rising star. Itauma TKO-8
