After a while, it feels like the same old story every single day. I’m sure not only to me and all of the other writers and bloggers around the country, but surely also to all of you reading. The only difference today was a poor start. The Cubs had at least been getting pretty strong starts from their pitchers. Javier Assad wasn’t good in his 2025 debut. You quietly hope that when a guy debuts in August that he’ll have a little extra zip being relatively fresh compared to guys who are three quarters
through the grind of a season. But it wasn’t to be.
Offensively, this was a really weird game. The Cubs did draw seven walks and that’s great. But they only had four hits, and that’s not so great. All of the hits were singles. So the Cubs produced a lot of traffic but didn’t do much with it. They stole one base. So a mixed and unsuccessful bag.
I don’t want to tell all of you day after day that everything is going to be okay. You’re all tired of hearing it. Starting the day, Fangraphs estimated the Cubs with a 96.2 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. The math is good. Even with the struggles, the Mets are struggling harder. If someone gets caught, it’s probably them. And even they were at 81.2 percent to make the playoffs heading into play today.
What did the other “hopefuls” do Tuesday? The Marlins lost in Cleveland. The Cardinals lost to… the Rockies. The Reds had a real nice win against the Phillies. The Mets pounded the Braves, finally stopping their skid. The Padres had a nice win against the Giants in San Francisco in the only game between two Wild Card possibilities (I guess, unless the Mets reverse fortune and win the division, making the Phillies a Wild Card). So the Reds win and are now “only” seven games in the loss column behind the Cubs. 5.5 games overall.
With Assad and Miguel Amaya returning today, despite the poor outing from Assad, the Cubs roster is the strongest it has been this year. Exactly what you want. Getting stronger into the end of the season. It doesn’t feel like it, but big picture, the roster improved. Next week, Jameson Taillon will return, possibly costing Ryan Brasier his roster spot if everyone else is healthy. Though I guess they could bounce Ben Brown for a couple of weeks.
So there you have my mindset. The ship is taking water. The fair weather people are looking for where the lifeboats are at and I’m very definitely still mentally rearranging the deck chairs. If you want to grab a life jacket and help people into the boats, just remember women and children first. Tomorrow’s another day. A day closer to whenever the next Cubs hot streak is. I’m here for it. I’ve loved this season way too much to quit on it.
But yeah. I’m frustrated too. I just don’t see the need to vent. I just know it’s still gonna turn. The division has surely sailed. Realistically when you get on the type of hot stretch that only happens a handful of times per decade, you probably should win a division. It is what it is. Hat tip to a team playing multiple standard deviations over its talent level. Wish it were us. I sure wouldn’t be apologizing for it if I were in their shoes.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 125, 37 BF (8 IP)
- Blue Jays: 154, 38 BF
What the heck to do with these numbers? 15.5 pitches per inning for the Cubs. That’s not great. They allowed 12 hits, two walks and hit a batter. That amount of offense could probably have been even worse than five runs. Assad and Brown are probably both out for the rest of the series with over 50 pitches thrown.
On the other side, the Jays threw more than 17 pitches per inning. That’s pretty bad. They dodged a lot of bullets. In pretty much any inning, if the Cubs offense had shown up, they could have flipped this game. The Jays ended up using five relievers. That’s wild in a 5-1 win. None of them threw more than 14 pitches, you’ll see all of them in at least one more outing in this series. Nothing here will shorten the Jays pen in other games.
It’s just wild all around. That high pitch count was based almost entirely on balls not in play. Nine strikeouts and seven walks ran the pitch count. To no avail.
Three Stars:
- When I started doing three stars, the games were pretty rough and I was looking for anything positive. This had that kind of feel. Michael Busch had a hit and a walk and drove in the only run.
- Dansby Swanson had a walk and a single, stole a base and scored the only run.
- Will Castro had one hit in two plate appearances.
Game 118, August 12: Blue Jays 5, Cubs 1 (67-51)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Dansby Swanson (.075). 1-3, BB, R, SB
- Hero: Willi Castro (.059). 1-2
- Sidekick: Matt Shaw (.029). 0-1, BB
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Javier Assad (-.187). 4 IP, 21 BF, 8 H, BB, 4 ER, 2 K, HBP (0-1)
- Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.174). 0-5
- Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.151). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Ernie Clement batted with runners on first and second with no outs in the fourth inning. He hit a three-run homer to increase the Jays lead to four. (.147)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Willi Castro batted with a runner on first with no outs in the seventh inning. He singled, sending Dansby Swanson to third with what eventually was the only run. (.068)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Previous Winner: Shōta Imanaga received 71 of 123 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +27
- Matthew Boyd +23
- Shōta Imanaga +17
- Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
- Carson Kelly -11
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -16
- Dansby Swanson -17.33
- Seiya Suzuki -29
Up Next: Game two of the three-game series. Cade Horton (6-3, 3.18, 79.1 IP) starts for the Cubs. He’s 3-2 with a 2.58 over his last seven starts (38.1 IP). He has been increasingly dominant. Four straight scoreless starts and five of his last six starts have been scoreless.
Kevin Gausman (8-8, 3.85, 135.2 IP) was the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft (Orioles). He won his last start, but that was the Rockies (1 ER over 7). He finished third for the Cy Young back in 2023. Things haven’t been quite so good since. But the way things are going, this is a scary pitcher to look out at. He hasn’t pitched against the Cubs since August 30, 2022.
The dam is going to break at some point. Why not today?
