The Mets were one of several teams linked to Sandy Alcantara ahead of the trade deadline, and while there hasn’t been much buzz since, Alcantara remains an intriguing target.
The 29-year-old has been the worst ERA among qualified pitchers in baseball this year. Since undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2023 and missing the entirety of the 2024 season, he has a 6.36 ERA in 109 innings over 21 games for the Marlins this year. His peripherals are just as bad—he’s in the 13th percentile for strikeouts,
the 27th percentile for average exit velocity, and the 11th percentile for whiff rate. It seems the only thing that’s returned to pre-surgery form is his fastball velocity, which still averages 97.3 miles per hour.
Interest in Alcantara largely comes from his past elite performance. From his rookie season in 2019 and up until his injury in 2023, he was one of the best pitchers in the National League. In that time span, he had a 3.30 ERA and a 1.131 WHIP over 858 innings. He also won the National League Cy Young in 2022, as he finished the season with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.980 WHIP in 228 innings of work.
It might seem confusing how he’s dropped off so sharply, but the answer starts with how he found success in the first place. Alcantara was never a strikeout pitcher, but he thrived on elite command, weak contact, and ground balls—all of which have regressed in 2025. His walk rate has dropped from the 80th percentile range (2021–2023) to just the 40th percentile, and his barrel rate has ballooned from over 80th percentile in 2022 to just 38th this year. On top of that, his chase rate—a key marker of how well pitchers can deceive hitters—has plummeted from the 94th percentile in 2022 to just the 37th percentile in 2025. Alcantara hasn’t gotten bites on pitches outside the strike zone, something that had worked well for him in the past.
Two of his key pitches have been particularly vulnerable. Opposing hitters are batting .320 against his four-seam fastball (up from .233 in 2022) and .246 against his changeup (up from just .146 in 2022). One potential cause is a mechanical shift: Alcantara’s arm angle has lowered from 34° to 31°, most likely to reduce strain on his arm. This change in mechanics, though, has decreased the vertical break on his pitches—with his changeup going from +1.2 inches of vertical movement relative to average to -1.0, and his four-seamer from -2.0 to -2.7. While his horizontal movement has improved, the altered pitch shapes and release point may be contributing to both his reduced effectiveness and diminished command.
His contract further complicates his trade value. Alcantara is owed $17.3 million in both 2025 and 2026, and he has a $21 million club option for 2027. It’s a sizable commitment, but one that could look like a bargain if he rebounds. He’s shown signs of life lately, tossing 12 scoreless innings in his last two starts against the Padres and Cardinals. Still, if his struggles persist, the deal becomes a significant financial risk.
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