SB Nation    •   10 min read

Predicting the 2025 Alabama Football Season: Vanderbilt Commodores

WHAT'S THE STORY?

Alabama v Vanderbilt
Photo by Carly Mackler/Getty Images

The fourth installment of wild blind dart-throwing takes us to the least Nashville part of Nashville.

GAME 5, OCT 4: vs VANDERBILT COMMODORES

Coach: Clark Lea (4 seasons: 16-33 overall, 5-27 SEC); After three straight losing campaigns at Vandy, Lea broke through with a winning record including three SEC wins in 2024. The big change was propelled by pilfering New Mexico State’s star quarterback Diego Pavia, TE Eli Stowers, and OC Tim Beck, along with head coach Jerry Kill who became a “Chief Consultant” with the Commodores after performing

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a miracle in Las Cruces (10–5 record) in 2023. The ‘Dores caught a lot of teams off-guard last season. Now, they are a little more of a known quantity. Can Lea prove that 2024 wasn’t just a one-hit wonder?

2024 VU record: 7-6 (3-5 SEC)

CB 2024 Prediction: 3-9; I wasn’t the only one overlooking the Commodores last summer.

Looking back: Folks should have taken note of Vanderbilt when they kicked off the season with a win over Virginia Tech. After a romp over a sad little HBCU, the Commodores had an inexplicable loss to Georgia State, who finished 3-9. That was followed by a double overtime defeat at Mizzou. And then, the Crimson Tide traveled to Nashville and crapped the bed. Two more Ws were followed by a field goal loss to Texas. Then came a low-scoring win at Auburn (no VooDoo HooDoo for Vandy, I suppose). On the verge of being ranked for the first time since James Franklin was in charge, VU reeled off three straight losses (SC, @LSU, Tenn). However, the ‘Dores clinched their first winning season since 2013 with a Birmingham Bowl victory over Georgia Tech.

Returning starters: 5 on offense, 5 on defense, kicker

Key losses: Four starting OL, DL De’Marion Thomas (xfer to Okie State), S/LB CJ Taylor, WR Quincy Skinner, S De’Rickey Wright, DL Aeneas DiCosmo, P Jesse Mirco (48.0 ypp), LS Julian Ashby (7th round, Patriots)

Top returnees: Consultant Jerry Kill, OC Tim Beck, QB Diego Pavia, TE Eli Stowers, RB Sedrick Alexander, PR/CB Martel Hight (will also play wide receiver), leading tackler LB Bryan Longwell, 2nd leading tackler LB Langston Patterson, WR Junior Sherrill, PK Brock Taylor, DL Yilanan Ouattara, DL Khordae Sydnor

Top newcomers: S CJ Heard (xfer from FAU) EDGE Keanu Koht (Alabama), P Nick Haberer (Washington State)

Strengths: Pavia behind center and Sedrick behind him is solid... Tight end Eli Stowers probably would have gotten drafted, but he is back in Nashville and will be a top target... Front seven looks respectable... decent corners... Special teams are strong... Hight is an elite punt returner... Jerry Kill’s presence...

Weaknesses: Rat poison? Last year, this team was motivated by the disrespect certain teams had towards them. Do they still have that vibe?... Replacing four starting offensive lineman... Wide receivers are not SEC caliber... RB behind Alexander is thin... Safety may be an issue... Depth has always and forever been a problem for VU...

Outlook: Diego Pavia reminds me so much of Johnny Manziel. They are about the same size. They are both a bit cocky and loutish. They both have some crazy escapability. And Pavia even has his own personal Mike Evans in Eli Stowers. Vandy definitely has a few skill players but can the patchwork offensive line keep SEC defenses out of their backfield?

The Commodores may have the five most difficult road games (VaTech, SCar, Bama, Texas, Tenn) of any FBS team this fall. They have three cupcake games at home, which means they will need to at least duplicate their conference record from a season ago to get back to a bowl game.

Vandy Win Total Odds Per FanDuel

Over 4.5 Wins -188 (bet $188 to profit $100)
Under 4.5 Wins +152 (bet $100 to profit $152)

Vegas is not very high on the ‘Dores.

2025 VANDERBILT FOOTBALL SCHEDULE:

Sat, Aug 30 vs Charleston Southern - W
Sat, Sep 6 @ Virginia Tech - L - The Hokies are improved and the game is in their house.
Sat, Sep 13 @ South Carolina - L
Sat, Sep 20 vs Georgia State - W
Sat, Sep 27 vs Utah State - W
Sat, Oct 4 @ Alabama - L - Bama favored by -22.5
Sat, Oct 18 vs LSU - L
Sat, Oct 25 vs Missouri - W - Could go either way, but Miz is due for a setback season.
Sat, Nov 1 @ Texas - L
Sat, Nov 8 vs Auburn - L - Will Aubie be in quit mode by this point?
Sat, Nov 22 vs Kentucky - W
Sat, Nov 29 @ Tennessee - L

I have Vanderbilt at 5-7. But who knows? VaTech and Aubie might be toss ups. LSU could get caught looking ahead to TAMU a week after playing South Carolina. And what if Tennessee has a meltdown season with their new last-minute quarterback pick-up?

2025 ALABAMA SCHEDULE PREVIEWS:

#NoCupcakes

Sat, Aug 30 @ Florida State
Sat, Sep 6 vs UL Monroe
Sat, Sep 13 vs Wisconsin
Sat, Sep 27 @ Georgia
Sat, Oct 4 vs Vanderbilt
Sat, Oct 11 @ Missouri
Sat, Oct 18 vs Tennessee
Sat, Oct 25 @ South Carolina
Sat, Nov 8 vs LSU
Sat, Nov 15 vs Oklahoma
Sat, Nov 22 vs Eastern Illinois
Sat, Nov 29 @ Auburn


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