With Summer League over and the Spurs’ main roster pretty much in tact, I figured this was as good of a time as any to (roughly) predict how minutes will shake out across positions. Projecting minutes and establishing a rotation is hard, especially with a roster this deep, and my guess is there will be some experimentation.
As a caveat, I’m not really interested in debating traditional positions vs. new nomenclature or whether there is a difference between “guards” and “wings”, etc. This also isn’t
a “depth chart” of starters/second string/third string. Several players are interchangeable between positions and could change roles depending on circumstances. Also, who starts could be because of fit and scheme rather than overall importance and yet still may not get as many minutes as some bench players.
With all the said, there are 240 minutes to divvy up spread across five spots on the floor, and they start to disappear remarkably quickly. The Spurs have a lot of talented young players, and finding decent minutes for all of them is going to be a massive challenge. Everyone except Victor Wembanyama should feel like they are competing for minutes, because they absolutely are — even established veterans like Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan if other players improve or demonstrate better fit. (Personally, I would be utterly shocked if all three of them were on the team long-term and mildly surprised if two of the three were.)
With that in mind, here is how I see those 240 minutes being divided up among the players, with some positional overlap due to players changing position when certain substitutions are made:
- PG: De’Aaron Fox (33) — Stephon Castle (10) — Dylan Harper (5)
- SG: Stephon Castle (20) — Dylan Harper (18) — Devin Vassell (10)
- SF: Devin Vassell (18) — Keldon Johnson (18) — Julian Champagnie (12)
- PF: Harrison Barnes (25) — Jeremy Sochan (20) — Victor Wembanyama (3)
- C: Victor Wembanyama (30) — Luke Kornet (18)
Finally, in tight games where there is no garbage time and/or the team is fully healthy, here are the players I see as just outside of the rotation:
- Carter Bryant
- Kelly Olynyk (mostly)
- Jordan McLaughlin
- Lindy Waters III
- David Jones-Garcia (two-way)
Here are a few key points of competition to watch:
- Overlap between Fox, Castle and Harper — This is the point of competition getting the most media coverage, so I’m starting with it, but I think it’s overblown. Harper has enough in common with Castle to immediately push him for backup point guard and starting shooting guard minutes. Fox is the most proven creator on the team, but a leap from Castle as a playmaker or Harper quickly translating his game to the NBA level are both decent possibilities. Both Castle and Harper are big dudes who will probably continue to put on muscle weight the next couple of years. They are both capable of holding up defensively against bigger guards and smaller forwards, so either of them can play alongside Fox. The only thing keeping all three of them from playing together is none are particularly inspiring floor spacers. Hopefully, Harper’s poor shooting in college will be written off as carrying a bad team and having to take bad shots, Castle will take a mini-leap and get closer to league average, and Fox’s repaired finger will help improve his outside shot.
- Vassell vs. himself — Vassell gets an early nod for minutes at SF and some backup SG, but if he doesn’t maintain his defense from the back end of last year or prove he can impact the offense without dominating the ball, some of his his minutes could go to someone else (probably Castle, Harper, or Champagnie, unless Johnson or Sochan make a leap as shooters).
- Sochan vs. shooters — Sochan not improving his spot-up shooting could lead to him losing minutes. Champagnie, who does everything reasonably well but nothing elite, is a classic high-floor/low-ceiling role player who provides one thing few other players on this roster can: outside shooting. Until someone else can space the floor, he’s going to continue to get minutes. Barnes is aging, and if next year is the year his defense falls off a cliff, maybe he loses his spot, but I think a safer bet is that he’s a couple years away from a serious decline.
- Backup center — Figuring out the backup center spot was, essentially, a question of offense vs. defense. Signing Kornet was a bargain, and the trade for Olynyk was a no-brainer. My intuition is that most nights, the Spurs will opt for Kornet, because he’s a better defender, roll partner on the pick-and-roll, and his strengths will likely accentuate the strengths of the point guards. That being said, Olynyk is a proven commodity, can stretch the flood, and he does so many little things well that he could be a valuable on court presence, such as simplifying what reads the young guards have to make by serving up dribble hand-offs and being a tertiary playmaker.
- How long until Carter Bryant breaks through — Bryant doesn’t have the off-the-dribble skills to take any of the guards/creators’ minutes, and he certainly won’t be battling for any minutes at center. But if his defense translates and he starts to adjust to the NBA three-point line, he could start earning minutes at SF/PF as the season goes on. It’s not happening at the start of the year, but I do think we’ll start to see it by January. If an injury to Johnson, Sochan, or Vassell happens, Bryant will be the biggest beneficiary.
Players most at risk of losing minutes:
I have Johnson as the player most in danger of losing playing time, even though he is beloved by fans and teammates and is the team’s longest-tenured player. Last year’s defensive improvement and body transformation was important, but to keep Harper and Castle — both taller, better defenders and close to the same weight — from taking his minutes (or from pushing other multi-position players into his position), he’s going to have to bring something beyond energy and vibes that sets him apart. I’m not sure what that will be, but outside shooting would be his best bet.
Sochan is also at risk but seems slightly less likely to lose minutes because he’s a bit better at creating for others and much better defensively. Champagnie could also lose playing time as younger players improve, although his elite shooting and above average defensive versatility makes him a good fit in almost any lineup.
Moving forward
The Spurs are very deep at this point, so it will be a challenge to find minutes for all the players on the roster. While I think the “point guard” debate is overblown, having three key players at similar positions will have downstream effects on the rest of the roster and rotation, especially as players who typically play as guards get push into the wing spots. Also, even though I was initially quite excited for Olynyk to put on the Silver and Black, once I started trying to find minutes for him, my excitement was dampened; I’m just not convinced we will see many minutes with Wemby at PF because they will need the floor spacing and defensive versatility of Barnes and Sochan.
As fans, we love to say “just go with the hot hand” or “play these guys situationally,” but in practice, that doesn’t seem to happen all that often. Both offense and defense rely on chemistry that can only be built through reps, so giving that chemistry and understanding of each other a chance to develop precludes yanking someone on any given night just because they just don’t have their shot or blow a rotation on defense. Regardless, however the rotation shakes out, it’s going to be the most fun we’ve had in a long time.
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