The Yankees need to get back on the horse. Frankly, that could be the lead to any number of stories over the past two months, but the sentiment remains true after another series loss (this time at the hands of the Phillies, despite a win yesterday to avoid a sweep). The only way out is through, and maybe this is the series. The Rays are no pushover, sticking around .500 despite a number of questions about their roster. Although they’ve had their own shaky month to push them out of a Wild Card spot,
Junior Caminero is hot and it would surprise no one to see them play the Yankees tough. It looks like New York will dodge Tampa Bay’s best pitcher, but there isn’t really a bad chucker in the mix.
All times below Eastern. I use a lot of em dashes, this isn’t AI.
Monday — Max Fried vs. Drew Rasmussen (7:05pm)
Once again, the focus will be on Fried’s left hand. He left his start before the All-Star break with a blister, and then seemed to aggravate a hot spot on his pinky last week in Toronto. Consequently, he’s allowed seven runs in those 8.1 innings, taking him out of the top-line Cy Young competition for the moment. If his hand is 100 percent, you have more confidence in Fried than anyone else in the rotation. If there are blisters, hot spots or other issues, he becomes much more of a coin flip.
Drew Rasmussen is putting up another strong season after Tampa committed him to the rotation, having split time as a swingman the last two years. He doesn’t strike many guys out, but at a 50-percent plus groundball rate, the 2025 All-Star is extremely hard to elevate against. With no Aaron Judge, power becomes more of a premium for the Yankees, and Drew’s a tough assignment if you’re looking to drive the ball.
Tuesday — Cam Schlittler vs. Joe Boyle (7:05pm)
Boyle’s only thrown 19 innings at the MLB level this year, taking over from Rasmussen in the swingman role, but what a 19 innings. A 1.42 ERA and stunningly low home run rate signal that the 25-year-old might be in the rotation for good, and he features one of the hottest fastballs in baseball. The slider to pair isn’t quite as dangerous as the heater, but you can make a lot work with a well-place 98 mph fastball.
Schlittler has been impressive in his two outings, although the walk is his biggest challenge. He’s issuing a free pass to 11 percent of batters faced, creating too much traffic on the bases. It didn’t come back to bite him against Toronto, but you can see what’s coming down the line if he doesn’t locate better. The Rays don’t walk a lot — or strike out much — so Cam’s biggest weakness could be hidden in this start.
Wednesday — Will Warren vs. Zack Littell (7:05pm)
The good news with Warren is that his FIP is more than a full run lower than his ERA. He had a rough outing against Atlanta last weekend, but he’s been a representative MLB pitcher albeit one that doesn’t give you much length. The bad news is he seem to struggle with putting guys away — one of the reasons he doesn’t go as deep into games as he could is because he seemingly always is in a 2-2 or 3-2 count.
Briefly a Yankee prospect, Littell is battling in a season where he seemingly cannot strike anyone out. A 16.5 strikeout rate raises eyebrows for the wrong reason in 2025, but a walk rate at three percent means he’s been outrunning the lack of whiffs for now. He doesn’t generate a tonne of groundballs though, which makes me feel we’re one bad day away from a significant amount of regression. Hopefully it happens Wednesday.
Also, it’s worth noting that Littell is a pending free agent and the Rays are three games behind the Mariners and Rangers, who are tied for the last Wild Card spot. It’s quite possible that the Tampa Bay front office decides to flip Littell to another team before he makes this start.
Thursday — Marcus Stroman vs. Ryan Pepiot (1:05pm)
Stroman finally showed his age and ability against the Phillies, giving up more runs than innings pitched — indeed, giving up more walks than innings pitched. Unless the Yankees make a real deal for a starter, Stroman will need to be a serious piece in this rotation, and cannot replicate what he did against Philadelphia.
Pepiot’s on pace for his best season yet since joining the Rays’ organization from LA in the Tyler Glasnow trade, worth a win and a half with another 10 or so starts to go this year. He doesn’t really feature any plus pitches, aside from a changeup that’s impressive enough, but he has been able to get results with good contact management and great extension.
More from pinstripealley.com:
- Yankees acquire Amed Rosario from Nationals
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- Aaron Judge heading to the IL with a flexor strain
- Yankees Trade Deadline Coverage
- Yankees 2025 draft tracker: 18 of 19 draftees sign
- Pinstripe Alley’s Top 100 Yankees
- 2000 Yankees Diary: The 25th Anniversary of MLB’s Last Three-peat
