At this point in the season, the Boston Red Sox have essentially two different lineups: one against right-handed pitchers and one against left-handed pitchers. Now, that’s not entirely unique. Plenty of teams in Major League Baseball have platoon players and guys who can go up or down a lineup depending on their splits. What makes the Red Sox’ situation unique, however, is their two lefty killers: Rob Refsnyder and Romy Gonzalez.
These two being in the lineup against lefties is non-negotiable. I don’t
have anything particularly groundbreaking to add to the conversation about these two, but just for context: Refsnyder holds a .905 OPS against lefties this season while Gonzalez maintains a gargantuan 1.081. But how exactly does the lineup form around these two? Let’s break it down.
Starting off: Carlos Narvaez, Alex Bregman, and Trevor Story are glued to their positions of C, 3B, and SS. That leaves us the right side of the infield and the outfield to sort out. Romy is able to play both first and second, and while it seems like some time in the next month(?) Kristian Campbell will rise from the ashes and be the Red Sox’ first baseman, right now that job is still Abe Toro’s, with Romy playing second on most days.
While Refsnyder is a serviceable defender, he is likely best-suited to DH with how many plus outfielders Boston has at their disposal. Speaking of plus outfielders, Ceddanne Rafaela should be your centerfielder every single day. The $130 million dollar Roman Anthony is one of the very best hitters in baseball now, so there’s your second outfielder. Now we arrive at where some tough conversations are to be had.
The final outfielder in this equation is often days one Jarren Duran. And while he has seemingly turned a corner with his bat in the last forty-five days or so, one look under the hood at his splits paints a spooky picture against LHP. In 161 at-bats, Duran is batting just .211 with a .595 OPS against lefties. Couple this with him clearly being the worst defender of the outfield quartet, and it’s fair to want to see what Wilyer Abreu can offer in this position. So, let’s see.
Wilyer Abreu, in an admittedly small sample size of 53 at-bats, has a .664 OPS against lefties. While this is only ~70 points higher than Duran’s, it is still notable. That is because Wilyer Abreu is a top ten defensive outfielder in the sport of baseball. His 9 outs above average and 15 defensive runs saved put him firmly in the conversation for another gold glove. Alternatively, Duran’s glove has fallen off a cliff this year, with -3 OAA and only 6 DRS. If Abreu is coming close to Duran’s numbers with the bat, let alone eclipsing them, he should be the one standing in the outfield. A trio of Anthony (who has already accumulated 4 OAA), Rafaela, and Abreu gives you the best defensive outfield in baseball. And frankly, it’s not even close.
I’m not naive to the fact that sitting Duran down against lefties is a tough conversation. He was one of the best players in baseball last year. But last year is not this year. And this year, the Red Sox are in a real position to make a playoff push. With only forty or so games left, the offense and defense should be optimized every single day. And this is the way to do that.
