SB Nation    •   7 min read

Who has a better chance at the Cy Young Award: Zack Wheeler or Cristopher Sánchez?

WHAT'S THE STORY?

Boston Red Sox v Philadelphia Phillies
Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images

The Phillies have been spoiled by their starting pitching this season. That is especially true of the two men at the top of their rotation. Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez are both among the league’s best pitchers and are firmly in the Cy Young award conversation as we enter the post All-Star break portion of the season.

The pair of Phillies pitchers are fourth (3.9) and fifth (3.6) respectively among all starters in fWAR. Only Paul Skenes (4.2) has more in the National League. Wheeler is third

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among all starters in innings pitched (128) while Sánchez is ninth (124). Both are in the top ten in ERA and are just one one hundredth of a point apart from each other, as Wheeler is seventh with 2.39 and Sánchez is eighth with 2.40. Wheeler has a better WHIP (0.88) than Sánchez (1.09), but that’s partly due to Wheeler’s mark being the second best in baseball behind Tarik Skubal. Nevertheless, both are once again a minuscule point away from each other in FIP, with Wheeler fifth at 2.68 and Sánchez sixth at 2.69.

They may be doing it in slightly different ways, but each one is dominating all the same. Wheeler is second only to Skubal again in strikeout rate (33.4%) among all starters while Sánchez is fourth in groundball rate (59.2%). Wheeler attacks with his fastball, a pitch that carries a 32.4% whiff rate and a run value of 16 that grades out among the best in the sport. Sánchez meanwhile is an artist with his changeup, a pitch he tunnels perfectly with his sinker and grades out as the best offspeed pitch in baseball with a 47.3% whiff rate and a run value of 16.

There will be stiff competition for the Cy Young award in the NL this year. There is of course Skenes who is having his own version of a 2018 Jacob deGrom season, as he sports a sub-2 ERA that ranks as the best among all starters but carries a win-loss record of 5-8 thanks to the Pirates’ offensive ineptitude. Logan Webb of the Giants will be a strong contender as well, as he is also among the top ten in fWAR and leads the NL in innings with 131.2. Chicago’s Matthew Boyd is a recent entrant to the conversation, but he carries a 2.20 ERA through 116.1 IP to go with an 11-2 record.

Wheeler has famously finished as the runner up for the Cy Young award twice in his Phillies career, with the second time being last season. Sánchez appeared on the ballot for the first time last season but finished tenth and has the dubious distinction of being the biggest snub from this year’s All-Star game. He has less national recognition than Wheeler, but that will change quickly if he keeps up his current pace. For more on Sánchez’ case, our own John Stolnis broke it down in a piece earlier this week.

So, who has a better chance at the Cy Young Award: Zack Wheeler or Cristopher Sánchez? Both may be among the finalists, but will they steal votes from each other? Will Wheeler finally get over the hump and add some hardware to his accomplishments? Will Sánchez cement himself as one of the best pitchers in the league whose name needs to be recognized?

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