28 scoreless innings.
Where at the beginning of the season the Diamondbacks looked like a Sorolla vivid painting that was catching the light of a hopeful and exciting fanbase full of expectations after just missing the playoffs in 2024, the Diamondbacks now look more like a painting from El Greco: dark, grey, without hope and praying for the season’s end. After an inspiring sweep of the Cardinals, the Diamondbacks inexplicably went numb and were able to score just 1 run in 29 innings, though that sole sac fly from Eugenio
Suarez was enough to add another win to the record.
After trading away Josh Naylor, Randal Grichuk and another flop from Zac Gallen, everyone seems to have given up hope. However, we still have 56 more games to play and no other team knows better how to make the most of that than the Detroit Tigers.
How did Detroit go from below .500 at the trade deadline to the post-season?
Last year around the trade deadline, the Tigers were below .500 and traded one of their aces, Jack Flaherty. Instead of getting weaker, the Tigers surprisingly ran into the playoffs. What is the recipe of that?
“A pretty complicated recipe. Difficult to replicate without all those exact ingredients on hand.” - Brandon Day, from Bless You Boys, Detroit Tigers’ SBNation sister site
The Tigers were in a pretty similar situation. Out of the Wild Card, one of the hottest players in baseball on an expiring contract (Jack Flaherty vs Eugenio Suarez) and an underperforming player like Javier Báez.
The thing about trading Jack Flaherty, was that the Tigers were out of it at that point, and Flaherty seemed due for some regression. They also badly needed to get Javier Báez out of the lineup and into surgery for the hip issue that had been plaguing him for two seasons. Getting shortstop prospect Trey Sweeney and a good catching prospect in Thayron Liranzo was a big win for the front office. Sweeney didn’t exactly tear the cover off the ball but he was a huge upgrade over a very busted Báez at that point.
The other key element was the flexibility afforded by moving Flaherty and calling up a batch of major league ready starting pitching prospects, who they were able to pair with openers to avoid the third times through the order penalty while still getting into the late innings. AJ Hinch is one of the smartest guys in the game, and he and pitching coach Chris Fetter’s management of a group of solid but unspectacular arms was really something to see.
They didn’t exactly have a ton of strikeout stuff, but they were able to get ahead of hitters and throw a high ratio of strikes without getting bombed on. They also got Parker Meadows back in center field around that point, and the defense overall played really well down the stretch, completing the whole package. That efficiency made the whole project work.
Of course the other part of the recipe was some luck, and the Minnesota Twins absolutely crumbling down the stretch. - Brandon Day, from Bless You Boys, Detroit Tigers’ SBNation sister site
Let’s hope Lovullo and Hazen have taken their notes.
Detroit is in a slump though.
At the beginning of this month, the Tigers were the first team to get to 60 wins and had the best run differential, but ever since the Tigers are in a terrible skid though still with a safe lead in the AL Central. Yesterday they were able to stop a 6-game losing streak. What has happened and will the Tigers be able to turn things around?
Going into the season, I had the Tigers pegged as an 85-88 win team. They needed another big bat over the offseason, namely Alex Bregman, but balked at the price. They played above their heads in the first half, particularly a really hot stretch in early May. We were marvelling that it seemed that all the bats were hot at the same time. At one point in early June we had 8 different regular position players with an OPS over .800.
What we’ve seen since mid-June is the offense coming back to Earth and injuries to Kerry Carpenter, Javy Baez, and rookie stud pitcher Jackson Jobe taking their toll, along with the expected regression hitting all at once just as they were hot all at once. The other thing really biting them is the fact that they failed to improve the bullpen over the offseason. The “pitching chaos” success last August and September was the result of several prospects coming up at the same time and a lot of pitchers with pretty average peripheral statistics overperforming a bit to go along with really smart usage. This year, some of those pitchers have been injured or just less in command of their stuff, and they’ve struggled to recreate that magic. And unlike the past two seasons, their ability to find undervalued talent and coach up those arms hasn’t been in evidence to anywhere near the same degree. All of that has fallen apart to a degree as too many guys underperforming has made it impossible to match up pitchers with parts of opponents’ lineups as well as they could last year.
I do think the Tigers will pull out of this pretty soon. The past year from mid-July 2024 to mid-July 2025 they were a 95 win ream, and it isn’t a fluke. They just aren’t actually quite that good. Just an odd clustering of hot and cold spells all at once this year. The Tigers are good, but they’re still a few good players from looking like a really legit threat to win the World Series. - Brandon Day, from Bless You Boys, Detroit Tigers’ SBNation sister site
If that is the case, then the front office in Detroit is surely trying to improve the team in a substantial way, right?
The Tigers still need another big right-handed bat, another top shelf starter, and another really top shelf reliever to pair with Will Vest. They’re just a little short of a really complete, strong roster. However, there just aren’t many impact bats available and I don’t see them outbidding everyone for Eugenio Suarez, for example. Right now they could really use the best reliever they can get, of either hand. Beyond that I’d like to see them deal for a good starting pitcher with some team control to build up the rotation for 2026 as well.
However, our front office is not at all aggressive and seems very content to try and be the Rays with a little more payroll. Maybe they find lightning in a bottle with the right player, but we’re all prepared for them to be more scared of giving up a prospect than they are of blowing this still quite large lead in the AL Central. - Brandon Day, from Bless You Boys, Detroit Tigers’ SBNation sister site
The series.
It’s difficult to predict what to expect from the Diamondbacks in this series against the Tigers. Eyes in Arizona are more focused on possible trades, although it is likely that those won’t happen until the final two days of July. Last year the Tigers went from 18-13 to 21-22 when they met the Diamondbacks. Despite winning the series then, it didn’t stop the skid and it went even worse. What are the expectations in Motor City?
It’s hard to know what to expect in the upcoming series, because obviously the Diamondbacks roster may change significantly anytime now. Right at the moment the Tigers are playing so poorly in all phases of the game that it’s easy to expect us to lose the series, but four series ago we were atop all of MLB. Things come at you fast. If the Tigers start to come out of some of their offensive slumps, I expect a series victory, but when that will happen is anyone’s guess right now. I can’t imagine them playing this badly much longer, however. They were due for some regression, but it’s just all hit in one big wave over the last four series. - Brandon Day, from Bless You Boys, Detroit Tigers’ SBNation sister site
Matchups.
Game #1 Mon 07/28 3:40 PM MST, Troy Melton (DET) vs Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI).
- Troy Melton. 1 GS, 5.0 IP, 0 W-1 L, 10.80 ERA, 6.69 FIP, 1.80 WHIP, 7/2 K/BB. $273,762 (Pre-Arb).
- Eduardo Rodriguez. 17 GS, 86.2 IP, 3 W-6 L, 5.50 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 1.65 WHIP, 93/32 K/BB. $20,000,000.
Eduardo Rodriguez’s past with the Detroit Tigers wasn’t free of any controversy, so it will be interesting how Detroit will receive him. Rodriguez is basically a “whatever” pitcher this season. His last time out he did keep the Astros from scoring, but had troubles getting batters out, working around 6 hits and 3 walks.
Troy Melton is Detroit’s newest addition to the big league roster and the Tigers hope that will work out as well as it has with their other young pitchers. His debut in the majors wasn’t that pretty though, as Pittsburgh tagged him with 6 runs over 5 innings. Melton is a 2022 MLB Amateur 4th round draft pick and number 6 on MLB’s Top 30 ranking of the Detroit farm system with a 50 FV. He was getting good results in AA and AAA this year, so his call-up isn’t unexpected. This is what MLB.com had to say about Melton:
Melton’s raw stuff is better than his results might suggest. Working with a three-quarter arm angle and quick snap delivery out of his big frame, His fastball sits in the mid-90s but can touch 98 mph with enough ride to play at the top of the zone, setting up a mid-to-upper 80s changeup for swing-and-miss. He has a slow curveball that he can flip into the zone for strikes, but his preferred breaking ball is often a mid-80s slider. He has also developed a cutter to work alongside his heater. It’s a good arsenal that leaves hitters guessing when Melton has his command, but he can also have inefficient outings where can get hurt missing fastballs over the plate when he pounds the zone.
Game #2 Tue 07/29 3:40 PM MST, Casey Mize (DET) vs Brandon Pfaadt (ARI).
- Casey Mize. 17 GS, 92.2 IP, 9 W-4 L, 3.40 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 82/23 K/BB. $2,340,000.
- Brandon Pfaadt. 21 GS, 111.2 IP, 10 W-6 L, 4.76 ERA, 4.31 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 95/25 K/BB. $799,400.
Brandon Pfaadt’s first two starts after the All Star break have been hopeful. He has never faced the Tigers, so this will be a first time for him.
The same is true for Casey Mize, who has never faced the Diamondbacks yet as a pitcher. The 2018 MLB Amateur draft number 1 pick has had just one good season under his belt. That was in 2021, already 4 years ago, but this year he is able to contribute steadily as well. Mize was an All-Star this year, a replacement call-up, and on the outside that might seem a bit weird, considering his 3.40 ERA. However, by the time he got the call, on July 11, he was sporting an outstanding 2.63 ERA. The conclusion that he obviously got blown up ever since the All Star break is correct: Mize gave up 11 runs in 7 innings of work against Pittsburgh and Seattle. That certainly puts this matchup in another spotlight. Mize works with 5 pitches (4-seamer, split finger, sinker, slider, slurve) and averages almost 95 mph on his fastball.
Game #3 Wed 07/30 10:10 AM MST, Reese Olson (DET) vs Ryne Nelson (ARI).
- Reese Olson. 13 GS, 68.2 IP, 4 W-4 L, 3.15 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 103/33 K/BB. $787,100 (Pre-Arb).
- Ryne Nelson. 22 G, 12 GS, 90.1 IP, 6 W-2 L, 3.29 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 73/28 K/BB. $825,000.
A memory of what Ryne Nelson once was, we have in the last time that Ryne Nelson pitched against the Detroit Tigers. It was around the time that we said: “Nelson needs to step up his game” and we saw him give up, amongst many others, 8 runs in 4 innings. That was end of May 2024. Now, Nelson seems the cog of our rotation, right there with Merrill Kelly.
Reese Olson isn’t nothing shy of an excellent pitcher either. Now in his third season in Detroit’s rotation, Olson, a 13th round pick in 2018, is achieving a third consecutive season of pitching below a 4.00 ERA. The righty had a false start after the All Star break as well, giving up 5 runs in 5.2 innings against Toronto. Olson will pitch for the first time against the Diamondbacks. Olson has a hard sinker and a 4-seamer, but his strength lies in his secondary stuff, an excellent changeup and a fine slider.
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