Is the Lakers’ cap-space plan fool’s gold?

Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

There’s been one throughline in the reporting about the Lakers’ offseason so far: They’re prioritizing long-term financial flexibility above all else.

After Dorian Finney-Smith signed a four-year, $52.7 million deal with the Houston Rockets, ESPN’s Dave McMenamin wrote that “L.A. exercised discipline in its negotiations” with him “to preserve cap space for 2027, when the team expects to have space to sign a max-salary free agent.” Sam Amick of The Athletic later added that the Lakers’ goal is to have “(mostly)

clean books starting next offseason” because they’re planning on “swinging big for the long haul.”

The Lakers signed Jake LaRavia to a fully guaranteed two-year, $12 million deal this offseason, but they gave both Deandre Ayton and Marcus Smart two-year contracts with a second-year player option. Even if both of them picked up those options, the Lakers hypothetically could carve out more than $60 million in cap space next offseason. Granted, that would require them to renounce their Bird rights to both LeBron James and Austin Reaves, among others.

Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

If the Lakers are primarily focused on the 2027 offseason, they’re likely hoping to pursue either Giannis Antetokounmpo or Nikola Jokić, both of whom can become unrestricted free agents that summer. According to Bennett Durando of the Denver Post, Jokić already informed the Denver Nuggets that he won’t sign an extension with them this offseason, although that’s largely a financially motivated decision. He could make roughly $80 million more if he signs an extension next offseason.

Meanwhile, Antetokounmpo has been in trade rumors for most of the offseason after ESPN’s Shams Charania reported in mid-May that he was “open-minded about exploring whether his best long-term fit is remaining in Milwaukee or playing elsewhere.” During a recent livestream with IShowSpeed, Antetokounmpo said he would “probably” stay with the Bucks this coming season, although he did hedge with a “we’ll see.”

“That handful of awkward seconds before the ‘I love Milwaukee part’ account for all the hesitation that the rest of the league needed to resume the rampant questioning about Antetokounmpo’s level of satisfaction with the Bucks’ offseason business,” Marc Stein and Jake Fischer of The Stein Line recently reported.

If either Antetokounmpo or Jokić were intent on playing with Luka Dončić, they could put their incumbent teams over a barrel by informing them that they wouldn’t be re-signing in 2027. The Bucks and/or Nuggets would have the choice of trading them for whatever scraps the Lakers could put together or dealing them elsewhere, although other suitors might not be willing to pony up as much if they believed it was guaranteed to be a short-term rental.

Given the Lakers’ lengthy history of landing superstars either via trade or free agency, we can’t rule out the possibility of them landing Antetokounmpo and/or Jokić. However, it’s far more likely than not that they’ll have to pivot to a Plan B at some point, whether that’s in 2026 or 2027.

The Memphis Grizzlies just took one of the marquee 2026 free agents off the market by agreeing to renegotiate and extend Jaren Jackson Jr. this offseason. There aren’t a ton of obvious co-stars for Dončić left on next year’s free-agent market, so the Lakers might have to go the trade route if they part ways with LeBron after this coming season.

In some respects, Austin Reaves will be the swing piece who decides whether they need to make their big splash in 2026 or 2027. Reaves reportedly turned down the Lakers’ four-year, $89.2 million max extension offer earlier this summer, although McMenamin reported that both he and the Lakers are “motivated” to find a new deal next offseason.

Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report wrote in May that Reaves will likely seek a new deal starting in the $30 million range. His free-agent cap hold should be only $20.9 million, so the Lakers could manufacture additional cap space in 2026 by keeping his cap hold on their books and spending the rest of their money first before re-signing him. By 2027, that option will no longer be on the table if they re-sign him next summer.

Beyond Jokić and Antetokounpo, the 2027 free-agent class could be star-studded with players such as Karl-Anthony Towns, Donovan Mitchell and, hilariously, Anthony Davis. With that said, two years is an eternity in the NBA. Only a fraction of those top-tier players might actually become free agents, in part because their incumbent teams know the Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers are hoarding cap space to make a run at one of them.

So, who might the Lakers land if they can’t reel in either Jokić or Antetokounmpo? It’s far too soon to say. But having the financial flexibility to land an impact player is half the battle, as Clippers president Lawrence Frank recently told reporters in reference to why they were so adamant about escaping from the second apron. (Doing so allowed them to sign both Brook Lopez and Bradley Beal with the non-taxpayer mid-level exception this summer.)

Lawrence Frank on last 12 months that have seen the Clippers duck under the second apron and being able to add a host of players as a result: "You never quite know who exactly it's going to turn into, but you have to put yourself into a position where those guys are options."

— Justin Russo (@flybyknite.bsky.social) 2025-07-19T19:26:52.374Z

As more teams wise up to the punishing nature of the second apron, fewer might be willing to cross that line. However, the higher extension limits in the new collective bargaining agreement could continue depleting free-agent classes ahead of time, so teams also might have less incentive to carve out max cap room unless they’re major free-agent destinations.

That could put the Lakers at a distinct advantage, as they’ll likely have max or near-max cap space whenever they move on from LeBron and will be in pursuit of a co-star to pair with Dončić long-term.

They just shouldn’t necessarily bank on that co-star being Antetokounmpo or Jokić unless they already know something that the public at large does not.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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