The Jays traded for Shane Bieber this morning, or so reports Jon Morosi, Jeff Passan and a cast of others.
Going to Cleveland is Khal Stephens.
Khal (apparently named by his Kryptonian parents) was #17 on our prospects list before the season. He’s 22, a RH pitcher. Matt wrote:
Like the other top pitching draftees, Stephen did not debut last year but did appear for a couple innings in the Spring breakout game. His fastball sat 93-95, a touch firmer than reported but it was a short outing, with its calling
ADcard being riding life from vertical rise averaging 18 inches. His change-up is considered his next best pitch, with a cutter/tight slider rounding out the arsenal. He only used a couple, and it was just one look, but neither stood out as plus. If it comes together, Stephen’s ceiling is a three pitch durable mid-rotation starter.
One factor bear in mind is the underlying demographic realities. College pitchers are generally considered “safe” and likely to move quickly as more known quantities, but there is more risk than generally perceived. Of 162 college pitchers drafted 40-80th overall from 1987-2009, slightly under half never made it to the majors at all. Another 25%+ were in the “role 30” cup of coffee/replacement level bucket, so about 75% provide almost no major league value.
This causes us to be lighter on Stephen than elsewhere, and rank him below some other guys with less pedigree until we can see him professionally in 2025. With about 5% in each of the 30+/35/40 role buckets and a ~10% tail in the other impact buckets, the expected value only approaches 2 WAR unless one is confident the Jays got a steal. 2025 for Stephen will be about showing he’s likelier to end up in top 25% than the bottom 75%.
Bieber hasn’t pitched in the majors yet this season, coming of Tommy John surgery. He’s made four rehab starts in the minors, with a 1.59 ERA in 11.1 innings, 7 hits, 1 walk and 21 strikeouts. He was a Cy Young winner in 2020 and finished 7th in Cy Young voting in 2022.
He will likely need one or two more rehab starts to get him to 80ish pitches and then hopefully we will see him in Toronto.
He has a $16 million player option for next season.
Welcome Shane.
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