NBA 2K released a screenshot on Tuesday night of the top 10 rookies, sorted by overall rating in the upcoming installment of the simulation game:
Cooper Flagg was at the top of the list (82), four points better than second-place Dylan Harper (78). 82 is a very high rating for a rookie, and normally, NBA 2K is good about pricing in the inevitable trials and tribulations that even the most touted
prospects go through in their first year. This is a rating high enough that it warrants a stroll down memory lane to see how Flagg stacks up against the last 10 number one picks. Here they are, from the 2015-16 season to last season:
- 2K16 – Karl-Anthony Towns 78
- 2K17 – N/A, (Ben Simmons hurt)
- 2K18 – Markelle Fultz 80, Ben Simmons 79
- 2K19 – DeAndre Ayton 79
- 2K20 – Zion Williamson 81
- 2K21 – Anthony Edwards 77
- 2K22 – Cade Cunningham 80
- 2K23 – Paolo Banchero 78
- 2K24 – Victor Wembanyama 84
- 2K25 – Zaccharie Risacher 75
Flagg ranks number two in that group, behind Victor Wembanyama and just in front of Zion Williamson. It is an extrapolation that puts Flagg on track to have an excellent rookie season. Williamson was hurt most of his rookie campaign, but he was every bit of that 81 when he played. The Duke forward scored nearly 23 points a game in 24 games and showed flashes of why he was the most hyped up guy (at the time) since LeBron James. Wembanyama’s rating was probably too low, as he averaged over 21 points per game with nearly four blocks in his first season, which lasted 71 games. This makes NBA 2K’s assessment of Flagg a highly positive one. You can safely assume they think he will cross the 20-point threshold, average a couple steals-plus-blocks (stocks), and be the runaway favorite for Rookie of the Year.
That would be the high side of outcomes. On a team full of “guys” (whether good, bad, or somewhere in between), it is hard to imagine Flagg being that good from the start. Anthony Davis and D’Angelo Russell will take their shots, regardless of what their brain tells them. PJ Washington and Naji Marshall are going to take advantage of opportunities to shoot. Klay Thompson needs his touches; otherwise, his whole thing doesn’t work. There are mouths to feed, and if Flagg wants to earn that 82 rating, he’s going ot have to have everyone work towards that. And, of course, if Flagg is going to play guard like Jason Kidd wants, that adds another learning curve that could detract from his NBA 2K rating’s justification.
I think Cooper Flagg will be excellent in his career. He should surpass 82 at some point in the next two years and certainly projects to be a career-90s kind of guy. But to credit him this highly before a single game is a little ambitious. He could be very good from game one! But this team wants to win now, and rookies largely do not contribute to winning in a meaningful way because of the nuances it requires. It’s not that Flagg will not get there at any point this season, but it would not shock me if we see a 78 or 79 overall guy on the court for a few months, and the 82 they claim he is is not realized until he has some seasoning.
