Per a report from the BBC’s Senior Football Correspondent Sami Mokbel, Crystal Palace are demanding a transfer fee of £40m for the services of Marc Guehi, as Liverpool FC weigh up a bid for Palace’s captain.
There’s something deeply funny about the situation, as both clubs do their best to extract the best fee possible.
On one hand, Mokbel reports that Liverpool are interested but their interest will be dictated by cost, with the Reds unwilling to get drawn into a long saga over Guehi’s valuation and will only
move if they believe the fee represents that the defender can join them for nothing next summer. Liverpool look like they’re trying to position themselves as willing to walk away from this deal, and use the prospect of coming back for Guehi on a free transfer next season to lower the potential transfer fee. However, Palace will probably look at Liverpool and point out they only have two fit senior centre-backs at the moment, one of whom is a somewhat injury-prone and also in a contract year Ibrahima Konaté, and call their bluff. Most of the other centre-backs Liverpool have been linked with are also mainly on the younger side of things, not as established as Guehi, and less likely to push Konaté for the number two spot in the centre-back rotation.
However, Palace have also already lost quite a bit due to this contract situation. They turned down a deal of around £65m from Newcastle for Guehi in 2024, so a valuation of £40m is already a significant hit.
My assessment? Both clubs will probably come to an agreement. Liverpool have too much riding on a season where significant trophies are at play, and as exciting as alternatives like Giorgio Scalvini or Castello Lukeba, amongst many others, would be, they present other challenges like bedding into a new league.
Meanwhile, for a club like Palace, letting Guehi leave on a free would be pretty catastrophic financially.
I think £40m for a homegrown international player, who’s considered one of the better progressive ball carriers and passers at the position, is probably fair value. I think there’s far too much to lose for Palace by dragging this out, and Liverpool will probably get a slight discount on the base fee, with the rest being made up in achievable bonuses.
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