The Boston Red Sox visit the Chicago Cubs in a good position: A 53-45 (.541 winning percentage) record, good for third place in the AL East, trailing the Toronto Blue Jays by just three games. They sit in the second American League Wild Card spot. The team ended the unofficial “first half” on a ten-game winning streak, the best in baseball.
2025 has been a season of many ups and downs: a March/April of 17-15 followed by and 11-17 May, a 14-12 June (9-4 before The Trade and 6-8 after), and then an 11-1 start
to July.
Friday’s starter, Lucas Giolito, enters with a 3.36 ERA / 3.62 FIP. He’s coming of six starts of at least 6.0 innings and all but one of those has been a quality start in which he allowed 2 or fewer runs. He faces Colin Rea, a pitcher outperforming his FIP by a good amount. Striking out just 17.1% of batters and walking 6.0%, he’s a bit of a different beast. Crochet, for instance strikes out nearly 32% of batters. Giolito himself is at 21.7%. Walker Buehler is at 17.7%. But Rea’s on a bit of a roll: in four of his last five starts he’s allowed a total 6 runs. In the other he allowed 7 runs to the Seattle Mariners. Will he be... Colin in sick?
Brayan Bello on Saturday has recently altered his mechanics and pitch selection. With a 3.27 ERA / 4.21 FIP he has tossed at least 6.0 innings in seven of his last eight outings. Shota Imanaga was lights out in 2024 but hasn’t had the same success this season. Despite allowing a minuscule number of hits — just 47 in 68 innings — he’s also only struck out 48 batters. Better than Rea with 18.2% of batters retired by way of the K but still not great. He’s allowed eight runs over his last five starts and the Cubs have won three of those games. Is the Sox offense going to break open the floodgates here because he can’t strike guys out or will Imanaga’s luck continue?
Sunday concludes with All-Star Garrett Crochet. He’s coming off his first ever complete game shutout - that’s two firsts in one. This is the key. Win one of the first two games and you’ve got a shot to take the series behind your ace.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is the Chicago Cubs’ version of Ceddanne Rafaela: hit the ball hard, play great defense, hope the balls don’t get caught.
Kyle Tucker is their Alex Bregman: a cast off Houston Astro, although he was acquired in a trade and looks to be a free agent this winter.
Justin Turner is...well, we all remember the good times. Let’s just wish the guy well.
Carson Kelly is their catching surprise: at 30 he just decided to post a .900 OPS.
Seiya Suzuki can be forgotten sometimes on the big stage but he’s crushed 25 home runs so far!
This should be a fun one.
Just remember: day baseball in Chicago!
Probable Pitching Matchups
Friday July 11: Lucas Giolito (3.36 ERA / 3.62 FIP) vs. Colin Rea (3.91 ERA / 4.78 FIP)
Saturday July 12: Brayan Bello (3.14 ERA / 4.21 FIP) vs. Shota Imanaga (2.65 ERA / 4.52 FIP)
Sunday July 13: Garrett Crochet (2.23 ERA / 2.40 FIP) vs. TBD (— ERA / — FIP)
When/Where to Watch
Friday July 18: 2:20 PM ET on NESN
Saturday July 19: 7:15 PM ET on FOX
Sunday July 20: 2:20 PM ET on NESN
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