Hot Hot Heat: Mariners at Athletics Series Preview

Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Mariners took two of three the last time they were in Sacramento. It was their ninth consecutive series win and moved them to three games up in the AL West. They immediately followed with a long stretch of losing that they’re still recovering from. The Mariners have won more than they’ve lost recently, going 23-16 since bottoming out in Arizona, but their pace has slowed to .500 since the All-Star break. The trade deadline looms, and the Mariners have been described as aggressive — the roster

could look different soon. This series will define the task ahead for whoever is on the roster in the season’s final stage.

The A’s have been bad this year by just about every measure. They’re bottom five in win rate (.426) and next to last in run differential (-121). They’re trending up this month and enter Monday above .500 in July with a +19 run differential. That includes sweeping the Astros in four games over the weekend, which is both a favor and an omen for the series ahead. While the A’s have a perfectly reasonable 26-31 record on the road, they’ve been absolutely atrocious at home; at 20-31, they have the second worst home record in baseball just ahead of the Rockies. And speaking of Colorado, Baseball Savant has the park factors in Sutter Health Park just a tiny bit behind Coors Field this year.

The A’s lineup has been middling for the season as a whole, but their active roster looks a bit better with a 114 wRC+. Nick Kurtz leads the team in most everything and became the first rookie in MLB history with a four homer game on Friday. Brent Rooker, who was not the Home Run Derby champ, is having another strong season with 21 home runs. Rookie Jacob Wilson started in the All-Star game but has a -24 wRC+ since taking a pitch on the hand on July 8. Lawrence Butler is also in a bit of a slump, going 3-for-38 since the break.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

From a previous series preview:

JP Sears is a familiar foe, having been drafted and developed by the Mariners and spending the last three years as the A’s de facto ace. His extreme fly ball tendencies were lessened a touch last year after he added a sinker to his pitch mix, but he still allowed 28 home runs to fly over the fence. Despite the continued dinger problem, he actually lowered his ERA a bit while still outpacing his FIP and xFIP by pretty wide margins.

---

From a previous series preview:

The A’s handed out the largest free agent contract in their franchise history to Luis Severino this offseason. There are worse ways to spend money in baseball, but Severino definitely isn’t the ace he once was with the Yankees. He did complete a pretty successful comeback campaign last year with the Mets, completing a full season for the first time since 2018 with some solid results. He added a sinker to his pitch mix last year and it really helped him keep the ball on the ground more often to go along with the swing-and-miss stuff already present in his arsenal. He’s got name recognition and isn’t that far removed from being a frontline starter. That’s a valuable thing for the pitching starved A’s.

---

From a previous series preview:

Jeffrey Springs was the other big offseason acquisition for the A’s after they brought him over in a big trade with the Rays. Springs enjoyed a breakout season in 2022 but was injured early in the next season and needed Tommy John surgery, costing him the rest of 2023 and most of 2024. His stuff was pretty diminished in his seven big league starts last year, but his surface level stats looked pretty good. When he’s at his peak, his changeup is a pretty deadly weapon and he emerged from his injury rehab with a new cutter under his belt. He’ll need to find some extra velocity on his fastball to hit his ceiling — he lost more than a tick off his heater last year — but his secondary offerings are all top notch.

---

The Big Picture:

Following their sweep of the A’s over the weekend, the Rangers have moved into a tie with the Mariners in the standings. Texas visits Anaheim this week before the absolutely massive four-game series in Seattle this weekend. As mentioned above, the Astros were swept at home in a four-game series against the A’s and will look to bounce back against the Nationals this week. In the Wild Card race, the Yankees are facing a pretty major crisis after Aaron Judge was placed on the IL with an elbow injury over the weekend. They’ll host the quickly receding Rays for four games this week. Meanwhile, the Red Sox beat the Dodgers last weekend and head to Minnesota for a quick road trip this week.

More from lookoutlanding.com:

• 40 in 40: Mike Leake
• Mariners Moose Tracks, 1/1/18: New Year, Edgar Martinez, and J.D. Martinez
• Mariner Moose Tracks, 12/31/17: Edgar Martinez, Barry Bonds, and Sandy Koufax
• Mariners Moose Tracks, 12/30/17: Edgar Martinez, Miguel Sano, and Wade Davis
• Jerry Dipoto doesn’t care about your fan theories
• Sporcle Friday: Most Walks in a Season
• Mariners Moose Tracks, 12/28/17: 4MOM, Jose Altuve, and Michael Fulmer